If I recall correctly, SARS kind of mutated its way out of existence back when. Perhaps this could do the same thing? There is so much unknown about this thing and by the time we figure it out it will likely be all past us.
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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)
- Thread starter GaWx
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Shaggy
Member
Sylvia Browne said it will disappear as quickly as it appeared. So if you believe in that type of stuff.......
marino13882
Member
Didn't something happen like that with MERS too?
GeorgiaGirl
Member
If you at least go by the opinions on CNBC this morning, if you don't see this virus mutate its way into not being a big issue, it really is feeling like it'd take an absolute ton for us to see widespread SIP orders again. Like big hospitals being potentially brought to their knees ton. Seems as if opinions are gradually shifting toward the idea of the vulnerable taking extra precautions, but everyone else, try to live as normal as you can.
Hopefully, that disaster does not happen.
Hopefully, that disaster does not happen.
marino13882
Member
I don't think we will have a widespread shut down again. It will be more localized if the situation calls for it.
Shaggy
Member
We are still in a manageable range but it is concerning that NC went from averaging 450 to 525 hospitalizations previously to this week running 525 to 585. We are back up to 575 today. So overall we have seen a higher level of sustained hospitalizations the last few days.
Yep, agreed. It's not a huge change and we still have plenty of hospital and ICU capacity, but if it's the start of a sustained increase it could turn bad. I'm wondering if that's part of why they didn't go full-on with phase 2, too.
cd2play
Member
I think it will eventually fade away too. But the question is.... When?
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Brick Tamland
Guest
In NC those age 65 and older only make up 19% of the cases, but 85% of the deaths. 63% of those deaths are age 75 and older. I imagine the hospitalization demographics are similar, but they don't have that data on the NC Health and Human Services site.
They also have data on cases from congregate living facilities like nursing homes and prisons. They make up 22% of the cases, but 64% of the deaths.
I think NC would have been okay leaving most things open at a limited capacity like we are going to do with the phase 2 opening, so the majority of the work force could continue to work, and find out a way to target these demographics since they are at the most risk for hospitalization and deaths. All I heard was that the case for closing things, so we could flatten the curve and prevent hospitals from being overrunned. We kept the grocery stores and big home improvement store opened, and those were packed, and I don't think we saw outbreaks because of that. I don't think it would have been any different with other things remaining open at limited capacity. It would be harder to do that in larger cities like NYC, though, where the population density is so great, and they depend on mass transit so much.
They also have data on cases from congregate living facilities like nursing homes and prisons. They make up 22% of the cases, but 64% of the deaths.
I think NC would have been okay leaving most things open at a limited capacity like we are going to do with the phase 2 opening, so the majority of the work force could continue to work, and find out a way to target these demographics since they are at the most risk for hospitalization and deaths. All I heard was that the case for closing things, so we could flatten the curve and prevent hospitals from being overrunned. We kept the grocery stores and big home improvement store opened, and those were packed, and I don't think we saw outbreaks because of that. I don't think it would have been any different with other things remaining open at limited capacity. It would be harder to do that in larger cities like NYC, though, where the population density is so great, and they depend on mass transit so much.
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pcbjr
Member
Official Florida report for the day ...
Shaggy
Member
Lets see if this survives peer review.
www.npr.org
U.S. Could Have Saved 36,000 Lives If Social Distancing Started 1 Week Earlier: Study
The analysis from Columbia University focused on the period from March 15 to May 3, when states and counties implemented "measures enforcing social distancing and restricting individual contact."
www.npr.org
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Surely that can't be right....is it?
Shaggy
Member
It's on all the local news sites from Florida but they sort of just gloss over it like its nothing.
Brazil has 16,730 new cases and 1,153 new deaths.
It may be true (or not...would many of these deaths be delayed, but not denied?), but it’s easy to nitpick in hindsight. The response in some ways was certainly bungled (testing early on was way too sparse, for example, and nursing homes clearly needed better protection), but everyone was just flying by the seat of their pants trying to do their best in an uncertain situation.Lets see if this survives peer review.
U.S. Could Have Saved 36,000 Lives If Social Distancing Started 1 Week Earlier: Study
The analysis from Columbia University focused on the period from March 15 to May 3, when states and counties implemented "measures enforcing social distancing and restricting individual contact."
Another decent daily report, although nothing groundbreaking. The rolling 7 day average continues to decline; positive tests are slightly up over yesterday but down against the same day last week.
Shaggy
Member
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Brick Tamland
Guest
I wish more people would actually look at the data of the percentages and demographics of those that have to be hospitalized and that have been killed by the virus instead of just the overall numbers.
Shaggy
Member
Overall numbers matter and a lot of us have many family members in that higher age group.
Shaggy
Member
Be wary of those antibody tests. Depending on which ones are being used theres lots of problems with a few of them. One was even tricked using saline instead of blood and still gave a positive reading.
abcnews.go.com
Mayo Clinic doctors find many COVID-19 antibody tests fail their quality standards: ABC News exclusive
A number of commercially available COVID-19 antibody tests did not pass Mayo Clinic quality screening or meet their expectations for use, researchers said.
abcnews.go.com
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Brick Tamland
Guest
That is exactly why the efforts should have been concentrated on that age group and the congregate living facilities.
Be wary of those antibody tests. Depending on which ones are being used theres lots of problems with a few of them. One was even tricked using saline instead of blood and still gave a positive reading.
Mayo Clinic doctors find many COVID-19 antibody tests fail their quality standards: ABC News exclusive
A number of commercially available COVID-19 antibody tests did not pass Mayo Clinic quality screening or meet their expectations for use, researchers said.
Yeah, if I got a positive result for an antibody test, I think I'd want to take another just to clear up the uncertainty as it seems like there could be a high false positive rate for some of them.
I agree that is true. And we need to strengthen those efforts going forward.
Crap, dad has covid 19 symptoms with a fever and I’ve been around him, this is the last thing I need
Sorry man. Is he going to get tested?
If he gets shortness of breath or any chest issues or it gets worse/doesn’t get better the next day then yeah, he has a bad cough, fever, body aches, and a stuffy nose
Jon
Member
He should get tested immediately. Testing is widely available should be free. It also helps with contact tracing and reducing possible case numbers.
The CDC estimates that the CFR for symptomatic cases for COVID-19 is 0.4%, and 35% of cases are asymptomatic, yielding a total CFR under 0.3%. Additionally, the symptomatic CFR for 15-49 year olds is just 0.05%. Good news, if true!
Seems a little low to me based on New York's experience, though, if I'm being honest.
www.cnn.com
Seems a little low to me based on New York's experience, though, if I'm being honest.
CDC estimates that 35% of coronavirus patients don't have symptoms
A third of Covid-19 patients are asymptomatic and 0.4% of those who get sick will die, CDC says.
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The CDC estimates that the CFR for symptomatic cases for COVID-19 is 0.4%, and 35% of cases are asymptomatic, yielding a total CFR under 0.3%. Additionally, the symptomatic CFR for 15-49 year olds is just 0.05%. Good news, if true!
Seems a little low to me based on New York's experience, though, if I'm being honest.
CDC estimates that 35% of coronavirus patients don't have symptoms
A third of Covid-19 patients are asymptomatic and 0.4% of those who get sick will die, CDC says.
"For people 49 and under, the agency estimated that 0.05% of symptomatic people will die."
So, out of 10,000 folks under 49 who contract covid-19 and are symptomatic, statistically, five will die. Plus, 35%+ (according to CDC) who contract covid-19 will be asymptomatic. So, that would actually mean that the total mortality rate for those who contract and are under 49 is even lower than .05%.
If accurate, that's very encouraging.
I'm sure you won't hear any of this on the evening news....
snowlover91
Member
Man hope he gets better soon. Has he been out and about much or staying at home?
New York Times ranks North Wilkesboro Metro #1 in the nation. Winston-Salem is #6 and Hickory is up to #12. For cases going up.
Breaking News: Wilkes residents no longer allowed to shop in Boone.
NCHighCountryWX
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D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
“North Wilkesboro metro...”. ?????
Apparantly, Boone is saying all visitors must be quarantined for 14 days. I have no idea how they plan to enforce that.
Apparantly, Boone is saying all visitors must be quarantined for 14 days. I have no idea how they plan to enforce that.
I didn't know North Wilkesboro was a metropolitan area ha
It's technically a Micropolitan Area, FWIW (population between 10k and 50k).
North Wilkesboro Micropolitan Area - Wikipedia
Good to know!It's technically a Metropolitan Area, FWIW (population between 10k and 50k).
North Wilkesboro Micropolitan Area - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
Yes, it seems like a law with no teeth. Perhaps they just hope it cuts down on visitors even if they can't really enforce it.
Sorry, I meant to say it was a micropolitan area, but had a Freudian slip. I edited it. A metropolitan area would be a population greater than 50k.
I'm sure that info will make birdman happy
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