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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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snowlover91 said:
It’s not a conspiracy theory at all..
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You can just stop right there with this nonsense. It's 100% definitely a conspiracy theory until substantiated by actual evidence and actual science (rather than bolded quotes from cherry-picked news articles), and the evidence thus far shows the main strains from the US emerged from Europe and the fraction of the population that's been affected even in the hardest hit zones even up to right now after several months of community transmission does not support the idea this was already widespread in the US in December. Until there's actual (published) science that backs your pet conspiracy theory up regarding "widespread" community transmission in the US well before January, I'll remain unconvinced and unmoved.
 
snowlover91 said:
They could both be connected, depending on what researchers find. For example if they find evidence this started in the US in December, it might indicate the spread takes longer to establish and then affect how officials decide to handle it if we have a second wave this fall. If though it ends up staying with the current confirmed timeline then that would indicate that more aggressive measures might be warranted if this starts to escalate again. I think the timeline is one aspect that is important to get to the bottom of so scientists can better understand the rate of spread with this virus and how long it takes for community spread to begin once introduced to an area. That in turn will help give the various political leaders better data to go off of so I think they can both be connected in that way.
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This is good discussion, and feedback ... glad to be part of it ... Thanks!
 
Webberweather53 said:
You can just stop right there with this nonsense. It's 100% definitely a conspiracy theory until substantiated by actual evidence and actual science (rather than bolded quotes from cherry-picked news articles), and the evidence thus far shows the main strains from the US emerged from Europe and the fraction of the population that's been affected even in the hardest hit zones even up to right now after several months of community transmission does not support the idea this was already widespread in the US in December. Until there's actual (published) science that backs your pet conspiracy theory up regarding "widespread" community transmission in the US well before January, I'll remain unconvinced and unmoved.
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The peer reviewed genetic study released less than 24 hours ago indicates this was in Europe and the US late December. Here’s the actual publication and summary of the research below from the CNN article (which Balloux tweeted and specifically said represents the study well, see below).

“They also found genetic evidence that supports suspicions the virus was infecting people in Europe, the US and elsewhere weeks or even months before the first official cases were reported in January and February. It will be impossible to find the "first" patient in any country, Balloux said.

"All these ideas about trying to find a Patient Zero are pointless because there are so many patient zeros," he said.



Also the other two articles I linked were based on science as well. The France confirmation of covid-19 is scientifically confirmed and well documented. The cases in Florida were scientifically confirmed as covid-19 with symptoms that began as early as late December. There is certainly increasing evidence that this was introduced into the US in mid to late December, a bit earlier than the current timeline suggests. I’m not saying this was widespread in December in the US but it does look like it could have been introduced at some point in mid to late December.
 
pcbjr said:
This is good discussion, and feedback ... glad to be part of it ... Thanks!
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Absolutely! I’m sure with additional research the next few months we will find out much more about this virus and hopefully come up with an effective, safe way to deal with it.
 
snowlover91 said:
The peer reviewed genetic study released less than 24 hours ago indicates this was in Europe and the US late December. Here’s the actual publication and summary of the research below from the CNN article (which Balloux tweeted and specifically said represents the study well, see below).

“They also found genetic evidence that supports suspicions the virus was infecting people in Europe, the US and elsewhere weeks or even months before the first official cases were reported in January and February. It will be impossible to find the "first" patient in any country, Balloux said.

"All these ideas about trying to find a Patient Zero are pointless because there are so many patient zeros," he said.



Also the other two articles I linked were based on science as well. The France confirmation of covid-19 is scientifically confirmed and well documented. The cases in Florida were scientifically confirmed as covid-19 with symptoms that began as early as late December. There is certainly increasing evidence that this was introduced into the US in mid to late December, a bit earlier than the current timeline suggests. I’m not saying this was widespread in December in the US but it does look like it could have been introduced at some point in mid to late December.
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The coronavirus may have been in the US by then but neither of these studies and the up-to-date antibody tests are able to support your conspiracy theory that's blown up into some big global government conspiracy that there was widespread community transmission well before January that we (everyone (not just China)) knew about, rather cherry picked and anecdotal evidence of flu or covid-19 like symptoms is being used to assume it was already happening when it's probably far from reality.
 
snowlover91 said:
The peer reviewed genetic study released less than 24 hours ago indicates this was in Europe and the US late December. Here’s the actual publication and summary of the research below from the CNN article (which Balloux tweeted and specifically said represents the study well, see below).

“They also found genetic evidence that supports suspicions the virus was infecting people in Europe, the US and elsewhere weeks or even months before the first official cases were reported in January and February. It will be impossible to find the "first" patient in any country, Balloux said.

"All these ideas about trying to find a Patient Zero are pointless because there are so many patient zeros," he said.



Also the other two articles I linked were based on science as well. The France confirmation of covid-19 is scientifically confirmed and well documented. The cases in Florida were scientifically confirmed as covid-19 with symptoms that began as early as late December. There is certainly increasing evidence that this was introduced into the US in mid to late December, a bit earlier than the current timeline suggests. I’m not saying this was widespread in December in the US but it does look like it could have been introduced at some point in mid to late December.
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From the linked article, this quote basically debunks your pet conspiracy theory:

"This rules out any scenario that assumes SARSCoV-2 may have been in circulation long before it was identified, and hence have already infected large proportions of the population,"

I seriously wonder if you even read the article to begin with, seems like you copy & pasted quotes that support your point of view rather than any stringent analysis (shocker)
 
I've seen many conflicting reports regarding whether a person who has had Covid-19, and has antibodies, is immune from a 2nd infection. Some of what has been published suggests there is no real immunity, some suggest it wanes, and some suggest it sticks. Anyone have any real data/studies on this aspect?
 
Webberweather53 said:
The coronavirus may have been in the US by then but neither of these studies and the up-to-date antibody tests are able to support your conspiracy theory that's blown up into some big global government conspiracy that there was widespread community transmission well before January that we (everyone (not just China)) knew about, rather cherry picked and anecdotal evidence of flu or covid-19 like symptoms is being used to assume it was already happening when it's probably far from reality.
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I’m not claiming there was widespread community transmission before January in the US or some massive global coverup (outside of China covering this up which is well known). I’m saying it’s likely this was introduced into the US in December, mid to late December, based on the genetic study recently released and other info mentioned.
 
Webberweather53 said:
From the linked article, this quote basically debunks your pet conspiracy theory:

"This rules out any scenario that assumes SARSCoV-2 may have been in circulation long before it was identified, and hence have already infected large proportions of the population,"

I seriously wonder if you even read the article to begin with, seems like you copy & pasted quotes that support your point of view rather than any stringent analysis (shocker)
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I actually read the entire articles of all the ones I posted and did further research into them as well. It’s highly likely this began circulating in the US earlier than is currently known, likely mid to late December, based on this genetics study and some of the new data coming out.
 
snowlover91 said:
I actually read the entire articles of all the ones I posted and did further research into them as well outside of what I posted. Again, read my posts today. It’s highly likely this began circulating in the US earlier than is currently known, likely mid to late December.
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Doubtful especially when said quote I pulled from the same article goes against everything you just said. Circulation and widespread community transmission are two completely different matters, but to claim it already had a very significant foothold in the US before January, one has to assume widespread community transmission was already occurring which it wasn't from the evidence that's been presented to date. You're contradicting yourself.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Doubtful especially when said quote I pulled from the same article goes against everything you just said. Circulation and widespread community transmission are two completely different matters, but to claim it already had a very significant foothold in the US before January, one has to assume widespread community transmission was already occurring which it wasn't from the evidence that's been presented to date. You're contradicting yourself.
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Can you point out in my posts today where I said this had a significant foothold in the US before January and where I said I believe in some "conspiracy theory that's blown up into some big global government conspiracy that there was widespread community transmission well before January that we (everyone (not just China)) knew about"?? I can't seem to find those claims in any of my posts (perhaps a misunderstanding or difference in terms?), all I can find is that this likely was introduced mid to late December based on the various articles I linked.
 
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snowlover91 said:
Can you point out in my posts today where I said this had a significant foothold in the US before January and where I said I believe in some "conspiracy theory that's blown up into some big global government conspiracy that there was widespread community transmission well before January that we (everyone (not just China)) knew about"?? I can't seem to find those claims in any of my posts (perhaps a misunderstanding or difference in terms?), all I can find is that this likely was introduced mid to late December based on the various articles I linked.
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You literally said earlier today to back up an earlier anecdote that someone had COVID-19 like symptoms this past fall that it might have been covid, because it was already spreading as early as November in the US (which means it had to have been somewhat widespread by that point). It's not that hard to read in between the lines at what you're getting at.

"That would expose people to potential infection and symptoms late November or early December.

Remember China did all they could to cover this up so it is highly likely people with the virus in November were traveling and spreading this to other countries by early December imo."

Thus far, no evidence backs up this conspiracy theory of community transmission that early on or the main strain came directly from China to the US (China > Europe > US however different story).

Thanks for playing.
 
snowlover91 said:
Can you point out in my posts today where I said this had a significant foothold in the US before January and where I said I believe in some "conspiracy theory that's blown up into some big global government conspiracy that there was widespread community transmission well before January that we (everyone (not just China)) knew about"?? I can't seem to find those claims in any of my posts (perhaps a misunderstanding or difference in terms?), all I can find is that this likely was introduced mid to late December based on the various articles I linked.
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You earlier claimed that this was already spreading "unchecked" throughout the globe as early as October and said
"What if this has been circulating in the US since December" Several on this thread have mentioned too people who came down with things similar to the flu but tested negative for it which could also indicate this has been here longer than originally thought."

which clearly means that there must have been widespread community transmission. However, apparently you've since moved the goalposts to late November & December now and are trying to act like you never said any of that. To top it off, you've also now claimed that there only were a few isolated cases instead of widespread transmission (which again is obviously implied when you use the word "circulating").

As much as you're trying to spin this favorably for yourself, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out where you stand (& have stood) on this wrt pedaling right wing conspiracy theories.
 
Webberweather53 said:
You literally said earlier today to back up an earlier anecdote that someone had COVID-19 like symptoms this past fall that it might have been covid, because it was already spreading as early as November in the US (which means it had to have been somewhat widespread by that point). It's not that hard to read in between the lines at what you're getting at.

"That would expose people to potential infection and symptoms late November or early December.

Remember China did all they could to cover this up so it is highly likely people with the virus in November were traveling and spreading this to other countries by early December imo."

Thus far, no evidence backs up this conspiracy theory of community transmission that early on or the main strain came directly from China to the US (China > Europe > US however different story).

Thanks for playing.
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Ok I believe you misunderstood what I was getting at, so let me clarify. My original post today in this thread was discussing Jon's question about what type of lag time there could be and I was discussing how this likely started mid to late November in China and it is reasonable to conclude that infected travelers from China could then expose people on an airplane by late November to early December. I also later added in separate posts that based on the evidence I believe this was most likely introduced to the US mid to late December.
 
Webberweather53 said:
You earlier claimed that this was already spreading "unchecked" throughout the globe as early as October and said
"What if this has been circulating in the US since December" Several on this thread have mentioned too people who came down with things similar to the flu but tested negative for it which could also indicate this has been here longer than originally thought."

which clearly means that there must have been widespread community transmission. However, apparently you've since moved the goalposts to late November & December now and are trying to act like you never said any of that. To top it off, you've also now claimed that there only were a few isolated cases instead of widespread transmission (which again is obviously implied when you use the word "circulating").

As much as you're trying to spin this favorably for yourself, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out where you stand (& have stood) on this wrt pedaling right wing conspiracy theories.
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Yes that was something I speculated on awhile back (not today) based on some articles that were indicating this could have started in October. However, I have since changed my views based on better data that has since come out in recent weeks and believe this likely was introduced in the US mid to late December.
 
snowlover91 said:
The peer reviewed genetic study released less than 24 hours ago indicates this was in Europe and the US late December. Here’s the actual publication and summary of the research below from the CNN article (which Balloux tweeted and specifically said represents the study well, see below).

“They also found genetic evidence that supports suspicions the virus was infecting people in Europe, the US and elsewhere weeks or even months before the first official cases were reported in January and February. It will be impossible to find the "first" patient in any country, Balloux said.

"All these ideas about trying to find a Patient Zero are pointless because there are so many patient zeros," he said.



Also the other two articles I linked were based on science as well. The France confirmation of covid-19 is scientifically confirmed and well documented. The cases in Florida were scientifically confirmed as covid-19 with symptoms that began as early as late December. There is certainly increasing evidence that this was introduced into the US in mid to late December, a bit earlier than the current timeline suggests. I’m not saying this was widespread in December in the US but it does look like it could have been introduced at some point in mid to late December.
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You could conceivably argue that it would have started in clusters around major international airports and spread out from there. This would align with anecdotal evidence of Covid-19 like illness in our area as we have a high concentration of airline workers and international travelers. This supports my theory that transmission started in the relatively young and plowed through school districts around here before reaching more vulnerable populations (with less daily contact with the younger cohort) in February and March. Also shows why we have hotspots now showing up in more remote, rural cities as it takes some secondary travel to get the viral payload to the relatively sparsely populated areas.
 
weatherfide said:
You could conceivably argue that it would have started in clusters around major international airports and spread out from there. This would align with anecdotal evidence of Covid-19 like illness in our area as we have a high concentration of airline workers and international travelers. This supports my theory that transmission started in the relatively young and plowed through school districts around here before reaching more vulnerable populations (with less daily contact with the younger cohort) in February and March. Also shows why we have hotspots now showing up in more remote, rural cities as it takes some secondary travel to get the viral payload to the relatively sparsely populated areas.
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There are a lot of unknowns still with the timeline and China covering things up doesn't help things either. However, from the studies I've seen I would say this was introduced into the US a little earlier than the official numbers say right now. Mid to late December seems to be a reasonable time-frame right now and I personally lean more towards the late December (21st-30th) time period for introduction into the US. It will be interesting to see what they find as various doctors go back through records and try to pinpoint when the first case was.
 
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