ghost1
Member
I think I've spoken to this on this thread before but my son had it in mid December after a trip to NYC. Antibody test positive 2 wks ago
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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)
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This here is good news.
D
Deleted member 1449
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How did he get the antibody test? Did he purchase it himself or some other means?
The “new” modeling and predictions, it really drives home the fact that the scientists are flying as blind as our politicians.
EDIT: This site was posted elsewhere and it seems to be really useful. It plots both cases by state on a graph and also calculated Rt.
EDIT: This site was posted elsewhere and it seems to be really useful. It plots both cases by state on a graph and also calculated Rt.
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ghost1
Member
He is a MD in Austin Tx. His father-in-law is recently retired from some kind of medical research and testing company in California. He didn't go into specific detail about how he got tested but said that they drew 2 vials of blood from him and they were sent to the California lab for "full spectrum" testing (whatever that means). He got his results about a week after he sent them in. He said the concentration of antibodies showed that his Covid infection wasn't recent but several weeks ago.
Yellow Snow
Member
The “new” modeling and predictions, it really drives home the fact that the scientists are flying as blind as our politicians.
EDIT: This site was posted elsewhere and it seems to be really useful. It plots both cases by state on a graph and also calculated Rt.
Some scientists can't even follow their own recommendations. "Do as I say, not as I do" ?
'Professor Lockdown' resigns after breaking rules to meet married lover
She visited his home twice, despite living elsewhere with her husband and children.
metro.co.uk
My brother in law is being moved to intensive care. My other family members are still waiting on results.
He was complaining yesterday his lungs hurt bad. And the oxygen burns. He was improving by being able to speak very little but now idk.
Jon
Member
I’m sure your son was sick, not doubting that, but at this time evidence says it wasn’t CoV-2. If that was possible, we should have seen a spike in NYC cases way earlier than we did. They’ve pretty much traced the introduction timeline to NYC.
In order to believe he had it, we would have to assume somehow that he came in contact with one of the first people in the United States from China, AND that both your son and that person sheltered while they were symptomatic and didn’t give it to another individual...because there wasn’t an abnormal spike in ILI in NYC in December.
I think it’s a common belief among people that they have had it, but antibody testing has proven a large majority of people haven’t been exposed. I hear all the time “yeah I was super sick, had a bad cough in January for a week, I bet that was it”....people forget so easily that during winter we have a normal, seasonal flu and common cold season. It’s more likely it was either one of those, until data says otherwise.
Another thought, just because antibody testing says positive doesn’t mean your exposure was X date. They should have told him what antibody was peaked and which one wasn’t, and would have been able to estimate his exposure period, if he got it done by a professional. Your son could have been asymptomatic with a recent CoV infection, which is very common. Also false positives exist with antibody testing as well.
Use me as a prime example. I was tested positive for CoV-2 via a nasalpharyngeal swab on April 11th. Way back on January 21 I had a fever for 2 days and a week long cough (I never get coughs, ever...in my 34 years of living I can’t recall the last time I had a cough, maybe as a kid)...I then gave my sickness to my mother, who ended up battling pneumonia Jan 22 into feb and is still recovering.
Fast forward and I’m tested positive April 11, proving that whatever I had in January wasn’t Covid, but another type of viral infection that was taxing on my lungs...either that or you can get Coronavirus twice, which as of today has been ruled out as possibility.
Yellow Snow
Member
It was learned yesterday that France may have to revise their timeline:
French doctors say they found a Covid-19 patient from December
There's new evidence that the coronavirus may have been in France weeks earlier than was previously thought.
D
Deleted member 1449
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The article that I posted said there was evidence that it was in Florida by late December (the article is from a reputable source). My question is this: is it possible that a different; less potent strain was here initially? I ask this based on another article that I posted here yesterday that said a mutant and more dangerous strain is responsible for the current outbreak in the U.S./Western Europe.
I mean, if COVID-19 was circulating in China in late November/early December and was largely undetected, it doesn't seem impossible that it could have spread far and wide from China given the ease of international travel.
I mean, if COVID-19 was circulating in China in late November/early December and was largely undetected, it doesn't seem impossible that it could have spread far and wide from China given the ease of international travel.
smast16
Member
Tell that to the guy who died on Feb. 6th, and is believed to have gotten it from Community Transmission in Mid January.
Wa-Po Article
Wa-Po Article
Jon
Member
Tell what?
I’m not at all arguing that. The timeline will obviously be pushed back and I think a lot of people knew it was in the US in January. A month or two back we knew that, see Washington state. I’ve posted about that very thing. It’s been speculated by the virologists and genealogists for months that it anchored in the US in January.
All I’m arguing is the above poster’s son getting it in Mid-December is highly unlikely. If it is likely his son got it in mid December, what caused the virus to spike when it did? That can’t be explained with what we currently know about the virus.
Jon
Member
Yeah, I guess the only thing that’s possible here is that a virus that makes most people asymptomatic or mild cases was circulating. I really think we would have seen it, monitoring Influenza-like illness like we do in the healthcare world, something would have turned a light bulb on in mid-December.
The only possibility would be a largely asymptomatic-case strain floating around. We may never know, maybe more autopsies will tell us but it’s already May...are we going to dig up loved ones that died in December of ILI with a negative flu test? That’s probably the only way we will know.
I’m just speaking on what we know and what science currently says.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I think it's very possible imo that some deaths that were classified as pneumonia might have actually been corona, but if we're going to talk about possible deals in December, we're not going to find out with the deceased. Family members will be left to wonder.
Jon
Member
It was learned yesterday that France may have to revise their timeline:
View attachment 41048
French doctors say they found a Covid-19 patient from December
There's new evidence that the coronavirus may have been in France weeks earlier than was previously thought.www.cnn.com
Would think since it has been traced we got our strains from Europe and not China, our introduction date would follow Europe, who followed China. I’d say late December/early Jan given air travel? How fast can these “first cases” infect cities around the globe? Has to be some kind of lag.
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Ok, so there was a bad cold virus going around in December and January, but you don't think it was this particular "unknown at the time" virus, but why didn't we alarm everyone about the "unknown" cold virus and shut everything down? So we gave it a name so now we can fear it? All of the fear of the unknown is ridiculous. You can't live any sort of meaningful life always afraid of the next virus pandemic, asteroid or war that will wipe us out. Shutting huge parts of the economy is going to be far more deadly than any of these viruses. It is a huge mistake. I can't overstate this enough. Opening up now and fast is the best action. I don't think I will ever trust doctor's, lawyers or any politician, ever again.
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I fully expect the cover-up to begin now. The government (CDC) knows more about the true timeline than they admit. So many governors shut their economies off and caused so much damage to the voter's out there. Nobody is going to want that albatross around their neck. Shutting down for a minor viral infection in 99.9% of the population that was already circulating wildly in December? No votes for you! political career over!
Jon
Member
Bad cold viruses circulate all the time in January. I’m saying it’s hard to differentiate and even harder to prove that it was here in mid-December.
Either the poster’s son is one of the first cases in the US, or it was something else. I’m big on science so until proven otherwise I believe it’s something else. We’d just see WAY more people with antibodies in NY as a state of this was true...think about it, 10-15% state wide with antibodies? Why is that the case if it’s been around here longer, long before the stay at home order ? Makes no sense. That’s when conspiracy theories kinda get stopped in their tracks. Show me a larger population with antibodies!
snowlover91
Member
From the timeline I’ve seen it seems to indicate this started in China mid to late November (and potentially sooner with how they’ve covered things up). If travel isn’t restricted one infected person could fly on a plane from China to Europe. That person could infect multiple people on the plane but symptoms may not show for 1-3 weeks (mid-December like the article Yellow Snow posted mentioned). This exact same thing could happen in the US with someone infected from China, or on the plane to Europe, flying to the US in late November. That would expose people to potential infection and symptoms late November or early December.
Remember China did all they could to cover this up so it is highly likely people with the virus in November were traveling and spreading this to other countries by early December imo.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The usual suspects are once again pedaling unsubstantiated conspiracy theories about when COVID-19 began
Sigh.
Sigh.
Here is a link to a video featuring anti-vacciner Judy Mikovits, who slams Dr. Fauci as a fraud. I think she is an absolute nutcase. Y’all tell me what you think:
Here is her wiki: why should she be believed over Dr. Fauci with a history like this?
en.m.wikipedia.org
This is what I think is the bad side of the internet. Way too much fake crapola that only leads to confusion.
Here is her wiki: why should she be believed over Dr. Fauci with a history like this?
Judy Mikovits - Wikipedia
This is what I think is the bad side of the internet. Way too much fake crapola that only leads to confusion.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
We will find out the truth sooner or later. It may shock some folks to know what was covered up and by whom..
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Some folks (especially from a particular side of the aisle on this forum) love to stir up conspiracy theories that aren't supported by real evidence or science. ~10-15% of the population testing positive for COVID-19 antibodies in NY after its been in the country for several months doesn't exactly bode well for the righties in here pedaling the conspiracy theory that this was already running rampant in the US in December because "x" person I know or myself had "_____" symptoms that are similar to COVID-19.
The news out of New York continues to look better. 232 fatalities reported in Cuomo's briefing earlier. That's so much better than they were pumping out ~1,000 deaths per day for days on end a few weeks ago. I don't think they've exceeded 300 deaths since last week now. If only the rest of the country were also on the way down...
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Here is a link to a video featuring anti-vacciner Judy Mikovits, who slams Dr. Fauci as a fraud. I think she is an absolute nutcase. Y’all tell me what you think:
Here is her wiki: why should she be believed over Dr. Fauci with a history like this?
Judy Mikovits - Wikipedia
This is what I think is the bad side of the internet. Way too much fake crapola that only leads to confusion.
There probably is some truth in what she is saying, but how much of it is true we don't know. It certainly is interesting to say the least.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
It is possible that @ghost1's son either had a false positive or had an antibodies test that tests for all coronaviruses (which uh, I do think a lot of people would test positive for antibodies from that) and not SARS-CoV-2. We'd just need more details about that antibodies test.
But we have seen some hard evidence as well on cases before coronavirus was confirmed in countries. That cannot be denied. Don't know about all the way back to early December though. But in the Brazil example that I've seen in here (although I can't produce the link off the top of my head), this person's cause of death was changed from pneumonia to coronavirus, and their death I believe was one month before coronavirus was confirmed in Brazil. Unless this person traveled to China or Europe or was in direct contact with someone that did, and we're not going to know the details here...a fairy did not magically infect them with coronavirus. As long as Brazil was right about this case, there is no telling on who and how many before it was confirmed in that country.
But we have seen some hard evidence as well on cases before coronavirus was confirmed in countries. That cannot be denied. Don't know about all the way back to early December though. But in the Brazil example that I've seen in here (although I can't produce the link off the top of my head), this person's cause of death was changed from pneumonia to coronavirus, and their death I believe was one month before coronavirus was confirmed in Brazil. Unless this person traveled to China or Europe or was in direct contact with someone that did, and we're not going to know the details here...a fairy did not magically infect them with coronavirus. As long as Brazil was right about this case, there is no telling on who and how many before it was confirmed in that country.
Webb,
It is a constant battle that will never end. A small part of me wishes we could go back to the pre-internet days.
Wilkes races to the top #1 in cases doubling. 
Yep. Also, given how high the asymptomatic rate for this virus seemingly is, that's also a quite likely reason for the positive result. But a false positive is also quite possible. No way to know, unfortunately.
It would certainly be ideal to get a second antibody test to greatly diminish the chance of a false positive result, though I don't know how easy those are to come by.
SC cases down to 84 new as of yesterday. Has not been that low since March 27th which was 83.
164 cases now and 8 hospitalized. Numbers do not reflect recent testing at Tyson they will be released this week for 200 employees. More testing next week.
snowlover91
Member
Looks like China is silencing survivors from speaking out. Just a really bad look and I hope not only the US but other countries will start shifting our manufacturing away from them.
www.foxnews.com
China silencing Wuhan coronavirus survivors, bereaved families through hush money, police interrogation
The Chinese Communist Party has launched a campaign to silence coronavirus survivors and families who’ve lost loved ones, Fox News has learned.
www.foxnews.com
Lawsuit coming over drones flying over Tyson in Wilkesboro stressing workers out. Local government concerned multiple drones could cause a crash.
snowlover91
Member
It’s not a conspiracy theory at all, in fact I am seeing more evidence that indicate (though more evidence and study is needed) this may have been introduced into the US in late December. This article documents an early case in Europe that was recently discovered and the idea that it was spreading there mid to late December, many weeks earlier than the first confirmed case and previously thought.
“The French case indicates that the virus could have been circulating months before it infected enough people to start flooding French emergency rooms with patients, said Yves Cohen, a French doctor who helped lead the study.
“The important thing for us is to understand how the virus lives, how it propagates, to fight it better,” Dr. Cohen said. “The virus took more time to generate the epidemic than we thought previously.”
With the thought that this likely started in China in mid November its highly probable imo this was spreading through infected travelers to other countries in December, probably mid to late December.
An article by CNN cites a study indicating this was likely spreading several weeks earlier than thought in the US and Europe.
“They also found genetic evidence that supports suspicions the virus was infecting people in Europe, the United States and elsewhere weeks or even months before the first official cases were reported in January and February.”
The Tampa Bay Times reported results from Florida indicating patients testing positive for the coronavirus had symptoms beginning a few weeks earlier, some as early as late December. They do note it cannot be confirmed if the symptoms prior to their positive covid-19 test were directly from it or other causes and more research would need to be done in these areas.
“State health officials have documented at least 170 COVID-19 patients reporting symptoms between Dec. 31, 2019, and Feb. 29, according to a Miami Herald analysis of state health data. Of them, 40 percent had no apparent contact with someone else with the virus. The majority had not traveled. At least 26 people who contracted COVID-19 started showing symptoms in late December or January.
Many of us have long suspected that there were undetected cases in the U.S. long before we had our first confirmed case,” Toner said. The new data “helps to explain what appeared to be a sort of explosive outbreak out of nowhere.Alberto Moscoso, a spokesman for DOH, said that many confirmed COVID-19 patients “reported symptoms that started weeks before their confirmatory tests. It cannot be determined definitively if these early symptoms were a result of COVID-19 or other causes,” Moscoso said.
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I was just thinking about this yesterday. I think the lockdowns would have been much more effective.
pcbjr
Member
If I may pop in momentarily to humbly inquire ... Other than perhaps for stistical purposes, why does it really matter when the virus started circulating? Setting aside any thought of Chinese neglect, or worse, at this moment in time isn't the focus, or shouldn't it be, where we are now and where we're headed? To put it into a weather-like analogy, do I really care if a Cat 4 'cane bearing down on Cedar Key originated off of Africa weeks ago, slipped south of Cuba, made it through the straights and turned NE, or if it blossomed last week in the GOM ... either way, I have now and for the next few days will have some weather to deal with. Just wondering why so much focus on whether the origin was November, or December, or even earlier ... 
snowlover91
Member
If I may pop in momentarily to humbly inquire ... Other than perhaps for stistical purposes, why does it really matter when the virus started circulating? Setting aside any thought of Chinese neglect, or worse, at this moment in time isn't the focus, or shouldn't it be, where we are now and where we're headed? To put it into a weather-like analogy, do I really care if a Cat 4 'cane bearing down on Cedar Key originated off of Africa weeks ago, slipped south of Cuba, made it through the straights and turned NE, or if it blossomed last week in the GOM ... either way, I have now and for the next few days will have some weather to deal with. Just wondering why so much focus on whether the origin was November, or December, or even earlier ...
It may help with understanding the virus such as how quickly it spreads, takes to establish, how long before community spread starts, etc. There are a lot of unknowns about the virus still so pinpointing when exactly this was introduced into a country, where, how long it took for community spread to establish, etc are all some answers that could possibly be gained by pinpointing this precisely.
pcbjr
Member
Very good point, and thank you, but is the question of origin shrouding the question of repair? Just asking ...
snowlover91
Member
They could both be connected, depending on what researchers find. For example if they find evidence this started in the US in December, it might indicate the spread takes longer to establish and then affect how officials decide to handle it if we have a second wave this fall. If though it ends up staying with the current confirmed timeline then that would indicate that more aggressive measures might be warranted if this starts to escalate again. I think the timeline is one aspect that is important to get to the bottom of so scientists can better understand the rate of spread with this virus and how long it takes for community spread to begin once introduced to an area. That in turn will help give the various political leaders better data to go off of so I think they can both be connected in that way.
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