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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

iGrey_X

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Crying at those who think us not working at full capacity for a couple of months thinking we would enter something worse than the Great Depression. Please relax.
 
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So I keep seeing things where people downplay the death/hospital rate because it isn't taking in to account people who dont show symptoms. Doesn't this same thing happen with the flu and other viruses? Do people with the flu have the same situation? Have the flu with no/mild symptoms.
The only hopeful data I've seen (and I'm very skeptical but not completely dismissing it) is the CFR in South Korea and Germany. It's lower than other countries, and they've tested more people. This could mean the real CFR is lower than we think, and that transmission is happening much rapider.

Unfortunately, the vast majority of opinions which downplay the event seem to be rooted in more hope than anything (just my opinion). I just wish we could present the data, and speculate on what it could mean without getting so twisted up in being right, or going on some weird political tangent. That seems really really hard for some of us.
 

tazaroo

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LOL no one is going to die because of a depression....certainly not 20k a day that has to be the funniest thing I have seen posted yet. Americans have gotten soft, this sucks and its pretty unprecedented, but hopefully in several months things will return to normal, hell most people who have been laid off will make more per week than they did working their actual job. Seem to me 3-6 months of hardship is a small price to pay for saving potentially 100's of thousands of American lives....
That is part of the insanity. You should never make more by not working. That just encourages more unemployment. Pure Socialism. That bill is un American. Can any of you imagine over 2000000000000 dollars. due to these lockdowns, half of it may be needed, the rest is pork. We or our children will pay the piper for this. The printing presses will run overtime and eventually inflation will happen. Not good in the long run.

Also, we dont know how many would die or at the least be impoverished.from a societal breakdown. It happened to Super powers all through history but I guess we're just invisible. I forgot that we hardly even teach history anymore. I guess I'm just. Just because this is America does not mean that if we make enough bad decisions we could not end up like Venezuela.
 

Shaggy

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The only hopeful data I've seen (and I'm very skeptical but not completely dismissing it) is the CFR in South Korea and Germany. It's lower than other countries, and they've tested more people. This could mean the real CFR is lower than we think, and that transmission is happening much rapider.

Unfortunately, the vast majority of opinions which downplay the event seem to be rooted in more hope than anything (just my opinion). I just wish we could present the data, and speculate on what it could mean without getting so twisted up in being right, or going on some weird political tangent. That seems really really hard for some of us.
With the 8 strains they've so far traced I'm curious if they can highlight the hardest hit areas and tie that to one strain over another or if they are all the same in terms of impacts and dangers.
 

Downeastnc

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The good thing that may prevent depression is the fact that everyone in the world is going down with us at the same time. The highest spot on the dung pile is better than being on the bottom.
This is true as well, the price of goods will decline not go up at least over the short term......there are huge grain stockpiles in the US so there will be no shortage of staples like bread, eggs were already super cheap and available, gas is going to end up in the $1-1.5 range for awhile etc....the service industry folks are taking a hit but the stimulus and unemployment increases will off set some of that....the stock market has undergone a much needed correction ( and then some ) and should stabilize if not recover in 6-12 months...hopefully

I think what is lost on some people is the fact that 400 people died in the US today from this and the daily number climbs every day.....the real danger to this country is that number climbing into the 1,000's every day and the ramifications of that, you think things are locked down now if that happens and people stay home and refuse to go to essential jobs and hospitals cease being able to operate etc that panic and anarchy would make anything we see over the next few months look tame.
 

Lickwx

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This is true as well, the price of goods will decline not go up at least over the short term......there are huge grain stockpiles in the US so there will be no shortage of staples like bread, eggs were already super cheap and available, gas is going to end up in the $1-1.5 range for awhile etc....the service industry folks are taking a hit but the stimulus and unemployment increases will off set some of that....the stock market has undergone a much needed correction ( and then some ) and should stabilize if not recover in 6-12 months...hopefully

I think what is lost on some people is the fact that 400 people died in the US today from this and the daily number climbs every day.....the real danger to this country is that number climbing into the 1,000's every day and the ramifications of that, you think things are locked down now if that happens and people stay home and refuse to go to essential jobs and hospitals cease being able to operate etc that panic and anarchy would make anything we see over the next few months look tame.
I paid 1.49 at the county line grocery/gas/grill in Franklin county today, saw one station as low as 1.45!
 
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With the 8 strains they've so far traced I'm curious if they can highlight the hardest hit areas and tie that to one strain over another or if they are all the same in terms of impacts and dangers.
Honestly, I haven't even thought about multiple strains and how that could be affecting numbers. Thanks for adding another variable to consider. (As if government restrictions, density, # of tests, age distribution, and so on weren't enough..) 😅
 

Arcc

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This is true as well, the price of goods will decline not go up at least over the short term......there are huge grain stockpiles in the US so there will be no shortage of staples like bread, eggs were already super cheap and available, gas is going to end up in the $1-1.5 range for awhile etc....the service industry folks are taking a hit but the stimulus and unemployment increases will off set some of that....the stock market has undergone a much needed correction ( and then some ) and should stabilize if not recover in 6-12 months...hopefully

I think what is lost on some people is the fact that 400 people died in the US today from this and the daily number climbs every day.....the real danger to this country is that number climbing into the 1,000's every day and the ramifications of that, you think things are locked down now if that happens and people stay home and refuse to go to essential jobs and hospitals cease being able to operate etc that panic and anarchy would make anything we see over the next few months look tame.
That is the word we have to hold on to, hopefully. But, if for some reason(albeit small)we do get into a world wide depression, this virus will be small in comparison.
 

tazaroo

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PSA: The current CFR is 1.64% U.S
Absolutely incorrect. That is complete and utter crap. You can only get the correct percent of death if you know the actual total number infected and follow it through to see if they recover or not. The number who die from the virus is much easier to find. The number infected is only as good as the number of people we test and the time they are tested. Most of the reported death % is wrong for two reasons.

One, the lack of enough tests until recently and so many asymptomatic or low impact cases, 70 to 90 +% depending on the source, aren't being tested that are indeed infected.

Two, People that were previously infected but have recovered will test negative and not show up in the numbers.

We likely have many many more infected or were infected than we know of. Maybe a million as mentioned by a poster who's doctor told them they believed. This means the true death rate is likely much lower than that. Not to say the virus is nothing but can't everyone understand why the percent actually dieing should really be much lower?
 

Shaggy

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The death rates argument can be tricky because there are so many sliding variables. Average time is something like 17 days to die. This means of the 14k new cases yesterday we may not see those deaths for 2 weeks. So for now the CFR reflects the new cases but wont know the deaths till 2 weeks. Tricky set of numbers to pin down. We likely wont know true numbers until it's all over and done with. Plenty of good reads out there about the IFR and CFR debate.
 
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Absolutely incorrect. That is complete and utter crap. You can only get the correct percent of death if you know the actual total number infected and follow it through to see if they recover or not. The number who die from the virus is much easier to find. The number infected is only as good as the number of people we test and the time they are tested. Most of the reported death % is wrong for two reasons.

One, the lack of enough tests until recently and so many asymptomatic or low impact cases, 70 to 90 +% depending on the source, aren't being tested that are indeed infected.

Two, People that were previously infected but have recovered will test negative and not show up in the numbers.

We likely have many many more infected or were infected than we know of. Maybe a million as mentioned by a poster who's doctor told them they believed. This means the true death rate is likely much lower than that. Not to say the virus is nothing but can't everyone understand why the percent actually dieing should really be much lower?
I was quoting the CFR based on the current reported cases and reported deaths in the US.

You seem to be arguing what the real numbers are for, and quite passionately it seems. I've actually speculated the numbers might be lower in another post. (I'm assuming you missed it, or perhaps I didn't clarify the point enough in my post)
 

Shaggy

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After a week of not claiming any new cases China is ticking up a couple dozen each day and on worldometer they have 3 new deaths
 

GeorgiaGirl

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Im trying to figure out how GA has had 40 more deaths than TX despite the fact that 20 million more people live in TX.
I think quite a few of the initial virus cases in Georgia (at least the Atlanta metro and Albany ones) can be traced back to 2 or 3 big funerals and that's actually been a while back (at least 3 weeks ago I think) so it might just already be at the timeframe of if a death or recovery will occur in those cases.
 

tazaroo

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I was quoting the CFR based on the current reported cases and reported deaths in the US.

You seem to be arguing what the real numbers are for, and quite passionately it seems. I've actually speculated the numbers might be lower in another post. (I'm assuming you missed it, or perhaps I didn't clarify the point enough in my post)
Sorry, nothing personal. I'm just tired of people blindly just accepting the cfr numbers by just dividing the known cases by deaths and assuming they are correct. Then everyone panics and makes decisions off of this and I can't find toilet paper 😞. The Last part was s joke but I think you know what I mean.
 

Shaggy

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A lot of ramifications there. I hope they can contain it, because it means we can if a 2nd wave hits us.
Tryin to find a 2nd source to verify a concerning story I've read about a 2nd wave in china.

EDIT: After poimen posted the link a few pages back theres really no more data to add to that story. It's an important development for China though.
 
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campamy

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Omg guys... I'm about to start trolling the beard/man cave thread! Came to check out the latest news and its back and forth again! I know it's an internet forum and this crap happens, but this board is 99% of the time a place to go, to get away from the isht you get elsewhere. Keep it that way please. No one has the right answers. It will be a few years before we can even make sense of this crap.
 

SCsnow

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Someone in this thread said that recovered cases aren’t figures into death rate. I’m pretty sure recovered cases are figured into that.
 

Rain Cold

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Someone in this thread said that recovered cases aren’t figures into death rate. I’m pretty sure recovered cases are figured into that.
Yeah, the CFR is the total number of all deaths divided by the number of total infected (×100).
 

LetItSnow

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Since Dr. Fauci has been quoted so many times on here this is an interesting and relevant article he co-authored in the New England Journal of Medicine.


For those who don't want to read the entire article here's a very interesting paragraph.

In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

Been busy ensuring our first responders/front line workers have adequate communications and bandwidths available to do their job; I see haven't missed much here; just the normal nonsense from the doomers and haters.

edit - back to work; enjoy trying to spin this one..
 
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Shawn

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Good news, the Laura Ingraham show had reported a second test out of France showing GREAT results with the malaria drugs.
I have looked at a few research papers. Chloroquin (however it is spelt) without the hydro part seems to be doing the best solo. Combining it with an antibiotic like Azitrhomiacin is promising, that is for sure!
 

tramadoc

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Im not selfish at all. Im concerned about the countless number of deaths that could occur as a result of the economic collapse. Seems like most people are more concerned with the virus than the number of deaths and other consequences such as depression, heart attacks, anxiety, and more as a result of the economy tanking. Im trying to look at both sides and not be so focused on just the virus.
You’re what? 18? A lot worse has happened than this. You have a very myopic and selfish viewpoint. I’m a former medical professional and understand the steps that have been taken. They are working and are what is causing the rates of death to be lower than previously estimated. You haven’t been on this earth long enough to see true suffering from a people.
 
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