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Possible Severe Weather April 22nd-23rd

Is it just me or is the action unusually far south for this time of year ? Maybe the jet stream is further south than normal ? We are almost in May and it seems May is usually more focused towards the TN and OH valley.
 
I can see this going 2 different ways. I see where the morning "junk" could severely muddy up the chances for more wide-spread Severe Thunderstorms, but I could also see if we don't have the muddiness in the warm sector things could go boom in a big way. I feel like this threat is somewhere in-between the last 2 events.
 
12z NAM run....Still quite the atmosphere. Yes, it might not be as strong toward I-20, but this sounding would look a little like trouble if right.

NAM 1.pngNAM 2.png
 
I have the 12z NAM up and honestly the 3k seems to be backing a little off on morning gulf storms unless precip shows something different from composite reflectivity. The threat does look to mostly stay south though in Georgia.
 
I have the 12z NAM up and honestly the 3k seems to be backing a little off on morning gulf storms unless precip shows something different from composite reflectivity. The threat does look to mostly stay south though in Georgia.

12k nam keeps a broken line of storms for my area with a tornado sounding and the 3k keeps the line east of me by 30 miles and squeaks out a marginal severe threat. Huge difference still between the 12k and 3k.
 
12k nam keeps a broken line of storms for my area with a tornado sounding and the 3k keeps the line east of me by 30 miles and squeaks out a marginal severe threat. Huge difference still between the 12k and 3k.
Agree. 3K shows nothing severe here in NGA, where 12K shows line later in evening coming through with severe
 
Can we please stop cluttering this thread with the non-event and storm cancel comments?

They're premature, given the ingredients will still be in place for a significant outbreak, and not helpful to folks who are reading this thread to get a gauge on the potential.
 
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Tbh, the saturday setup is starting to look more concerning for northern GA, upstate SC, & NC compared to this one on Thu, near & south of I-20 may not be the case however depending on mesoscale details. I think the warm sector will punch further N than the last event on Thu, but I have my doubts it'll be able to get all the way up here in NC, if it does though, watch out...

The lack of open warm sector convection on Saturday & even stronger synoptic forcing than we'll see here is starting to draw my ire at least in NC
 
Can we please stop cluttering this thread with the non-event and storm cancel comments?

They're premature, given the ingredients will still be in place for a significant outbreak, and not helpful to folks who are reading this thread to get a gauge on the potential.
Every model is showing event cancel for ATL. I am just posting what I am seeing.
 
Can we please stop cluttering this thread with the non-event and storm cancel comments?

They're premature, given the ingredients will still be in place for a significant outbreak, and not helpful to folks who are reading this thread to get a gauge on the potential.
I was talking about I-20 north as of now. Y’all south definitely need to monitor this one. That comment wasn’t towards you guys. My apologies if it was taken the wrong way.
 
I was talking about I-20 north as of now. Y’all south definitely need to monitor this one. That comment was towards you guys. My apologies if it was taken the wrong way.

Even north of I-20 isn't out of the woods, with the surface low tracking so far north.
 
There’s still uncertainty we might not know until after the morning stuff moves through. Could be now casting


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mcd0436.gif
 
Tbh, the saturday setup is starting to look more concerning for northern GA, upstate SC, & NC compared to this one on Thu, near & south of I-20 may not be the case however depending on mesoscale details. I think the warm sector will punch further N than the last event on Thu, but I have my doubts it'll be able to get all the way up here in NC, if it does though, watch out...

The lack of open warm sector convection on Saturday & even stronger synoptic forcing than we'll see here is starting to draw my ire at least in NC

I really think the lack of commercial airplane traffic is making a huge impact on our forecast. I mean less than 2 days ago this system looked like it meant business and a lot of were worried and rightfully so. Tomorrow should be interesting, it's going to be a nowcasting situation to see if that warm sector moves far enough north. Also watching for any added fuel from the Atlantic, at least in this area, as we saw on Easter.
 
RAP 15z is still showing afternoon tornadic parameters on soundings across north and central Georgia, but not as high as the 9z run. All options are on the table. Tomorrow will be a nowcast event!
 
I just looked at the NAM again, and while the MCS removes surface based cape, there’s still lots of MUcape advecting in aloft, kinda suprised me how much was advecting in, if these soundings come to fruition some large hail would be possible given the elevated nature of the storms, and the NAM has actually trended back to more convection again, more south you go the more you increase SBcape and a better chance of surface based T-storms 896CCB47-C3C5-46A9-B7B5-1A6D1A585654.gif863A592A-0367-4C1D-A5CA-1768F69F1EFB.gif
Sounding near ATL (good thing this is somewhat elevated because if that hodo coincided with better cape in the lower levels, that’s a big ooff, near perfect critical angles) 4290CBB9-30AD-4601-81DB-0599B9DF3483.pngsounding near CLT 2DA4DF3E-2DE9-4777-8559-8BFAD7163184.png
This is just one possible solution, I’m just breaking it down because the boredom is killing me
 
Only reason the STP was not showing up near Atlanta on the STP maps was Becuase the piss poor low level lapse rates, better hope it stays that way
 
Seems like there going with a NAM 3kmish/12kmish option, but instead the warm sector is further north, including more surface based instability, don’t know bout that one tho, but I guess you can’t argue with it, since they have done well
 
Definitely wasn't expecting that. Especially not the 10% hatched probability being expanded so far north.
 
Oh wow, I was NOT expecting that. This looks just like the SPC map for the Easter storm. Minus the moderate risk.
 
SPC discussion is mentioning the potential for discrete supercells capable of tornadoes, possibly strong in eastern Alabama and western Georgia.
 
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