Dewpoint Dan
Member
Is it just me or is the action unusually far south for this time of year ? Maybe the jet stream is further south than normal ? We are almost in May and it seems May is usually more focused towards the TN and OH valley.
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Possible Severe Weather April 22nd-23rd
- Thread starter Darklordsuperstorm
- Start date
I can see this going 2 different ways. I see where the morning "junk" could severely muddy up the chances for more wide-spread Severe Thunderstorms, but I could also see if we don't have the muddiness in the warm sector things could go boom in a big way. I feel like this threat is somewhere in-between the last 2 events.
Jessy89
Member
But both name. Show something even the gfs shows marginal severe weather.
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Jessy89
Member
I wouldn't go that far. There will still be storms of course, but the overall threat isn't as dire for a lot on this board.
12z NAM run....Still quite the atmosphere. Yes, it might not be as strong toward I-20, but this sounding would look a little like trouble if right.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I have the 12z NAM up and honestly the 3k seems to be backing a little off on morning gulf storms unless precip shows something different from composite reflectivity. The threat does look to mostly stay south though in Georgia.
SWB
Member
Starting to look a little more serious to east of Arkansas. What Nam is showing.
Shaggy
Member
12k nam keeps a broken line of storms for my area with a tornado sounding and the 3k keeps the line east of me by 30 miles and squeaks out a marginal severe threat. Huge difference still between the 12k and 3k.
Snowflowxxl
Member
12k NAM is on crack
farleydawg792
Member
Agree. 3K shows nothing severe here in NGA, where 12K shows line later in evening coming through with severe
NoSnowATL
Member
That 1st line in the morning really does kill the afternoon threat. I was joking yesterday about being sunny but it might actually happen after all.
Can we please stop cluttering this thread with the non-event and storm cancel comments?
They're premature, given the ingredients will still be in place for a significant outbreak, and not helpful to folks who are reading this thread to get a gauge on the potential.
They're premature, given the ingredients will still be in place for a significant outbreak, and not helpful to folks who are reading this thread to get a gauge on the potential.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Tbh, the saturday setup is starting to look more concerning for northern GA, upstate SC, & NC compared to this one on Thu, near & south of I-20 may not be the case however depending on mesoscale details. I think the warm sector will punch further N than the last event on Thu, but I have my doubts it'll be able to get all the way up here in NC, if it does though, watch out...
The lack of open warm sector convection on Saturday & even stronger synoptic forcing than we'll see here is starting to draw my ire at least in NC
The lack of open warm sector convection on Saturday & even stronger synoptic forcing than we'll see here is starting to draw my ire at least in NC
Snowflowxxl
Member
Every model is showing event cancel for ATL. I am just posting what I am seeing.
Models have been wrong before (both ways).
NoSnowATL
Member
I was talking about I-20 north as of now. Y’all south definitely need to monitor this one. That comment wasn’t towards you guys. My apologies if it was taken the wrong way.
Even north of I-20 isn't out of the woods, with the surface low tracking so far north.
Jessy89
Member
There’s still uncertainty we might not know until after the morning stuff moves through. Could be now casting
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I really think the lack of commercial airplane traffic is making a huge impact on our forecast. I mean less than 2 days ago this system looked like it meant business and a lot of were worried and rightfully so. Tomorrow should be interesting, it's going to be a nowcasting situation to see if that warm sector moves far enough north. Also watching for any added fuel from the Atlantic, at least in this area, as we saw on Easter.
farleydawg792
Member
RAP 15z is still showing afternoon tornadic parameters on soundings across north and central Georgia, but not as high as the 9z run. All options are on the table. Tomorrow will be a nowcast event!
Brent
Member
In other news the HRRR has multiple supercells over Dallas this afternoon
CAMs really don’t show much for northern areas
So this is probably evolving to a central and southern (main focus areas) of AL, MS and GA. (Along with LA AR and TX. But I think there could be some storms that pack a punch in In those areas tomorrow.
I just looked at the NAM again, and while the MCS removes surface based cape, there’s still lots of MUcape advecting in aloft, kinda suprised me how much was advecting in, if these soundings come to fruition some large hail would be possible given the elevated nature of the storms, and the NAM has actually trended back to more convection again, more south you go the more you increase SBcape and a better chance of surface based T-storms 
Sounding near ATL (good thing this is somewhat elevated because if that hodo coincided with better cape in the lower levels, that’s a big ooff, near perfect critical angles)
sounding near CLT 
This is just one possible solution, I’m just breaking it down because the boredom is killing me
Sounding near ATL (good thing this is somewhat elevated because if that hodo coincided with better cape in the lower levels, that’s a big ooff, near perfect critical angles)
sounding near CLT This is just one possible solution, I’m just breaking it down because the boredom is killing me
Only reason the STP was not showing up near Atlanta on the STP maps was Becuase the piss poor low level lapse rates, better hope it stays that way
South AL Wx
Member
The enhanced risk for tomorrow has been expanded into the Carolinas:
The enhanced risk for tomorrow has been expanded into the Carolinas:
That’s surprising
BufordWX
Member
Interesting 
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The enhanced risk for tomorrow has been expanded into the Carolinas:
Yeah I don't know about this map man. I would say maybe enhanced at the most, but not covering most of Georgia, nearly all of SC, and about half of NC. You could very likely slice off most of the northern 1/3rd part of the enhanced.
Seems like there going with a NAM 3kmish/12kmish option, but instead the warm sector is further north, including more surface based instability, don’t know bout that one tho, but I guess you can’t argue with it, since they have done well
BufordWX
Member
I was ready to write this one off for my area but the SPC is trying to tell me otherwise.
mbway091
Member
Definitely wasn't expecting that. Especially not the 10% hatched probability being expanded so far north.
HREF ?
BufordWX
Member
SPC discussion is mentioning the potential for discrete supercells capable of tornadoes, possibly strong in eastern Alabama and western Georgia.
That's not good. The only saving grace the storms won't be ongoing after midnight, like last time. Of course, that will add to storm development. I spoke too soon writing this one-off, and for that, I apologize.