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Misc Stock Market

Nerman said:
If it's down 8.5% - 9% now then I can see it dropping back down to 11% - 11.5%. A lot of folks don't want to be holding the bag overnight.
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I should have followed my lead and went back in.

S&P - - 11.98% The fact it closed under 2,400 is huge. The overnight will decide which way this goes tomorrow.
Dow - -13.23% I think the first 3000 pt drop?!?
Nasdaq - -12.32% At 6904. Next resistance level 6600.
 
Heelyes said:
That's still not the bottom.15k?
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Next major resistance for the Dow (if it continues to decline) is 18,000. It's 'probably' on the way there after taking out some key levels today. It could bounce up and down on the way there but I could definitely see it testing 18k. That would be another 10% down.

After that it would be really hard to tell where the bottom is and quite frankly is scary to think about.
 
Storm5 said:
Yep. I moved more money today . I plan on buying more this week


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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I moved money Friday. Should have funds available by Thursday. Then I’ll move more for the following week. I’m trying to DCA my way in.
 
Hopefully, futures will be limit up by morning.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Read what in its entirety? The part about you throwing a temper tantrum and getting upset that your nonsense is getting exposed? The part about you saying this is just hype & panic? Or the other part where you thought this was just another flu virus? Please elaborate where I'm misinterpreting because I'd really like to know. Saying I misinterpreted something without stating what that something is, is pretty disingenuous.

Also I don't like to repeat myself & I'll keep asking these questions until you actually give me a legitimate answer instead of dodging and slinging mud my way

Are you even remotely aware that telling people this is mostly hype completely contradicts your other message to take this seriously?

Would you be willing to tell the residents (about to be impacted by a category 5 hurricane) who are about to have their lives changed forever and you want them to take this threat seriously that the hurricane is mostly bunch of hype and there's no reason to panic?"


Another question that came up that I'd like an answer to is

Do you still think this is just like the flu virus because you continuously hurled flu numbers in everyone's faces the past few weeks til recently?
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I never said Wuhan Virus itself was hype. Comparing statistics is a reasonable and prudent thing to do; I've seen you do that numerous times in your field of study; it doesn't minimize anything, simply statements of fact as we know at the time.

To this point even today we don't have a real number on those who have been infected and have shown minimal if any symptoms. Let's use statistics for a minute with a nursing home having 100 infected patients and 30 die; is the number really 30 of the 100 died or is the sample skewed and did the 100 infect x people each and those infected y and so on so the actual sample is 100 times x times y times..? We don't know, sure testing might give us the proper actual numbers if the CDC/government ever got their act together, however the statistics based on that small sample are skewed heavily. Doesn't minimize the potential seriousness of this situation however it should put things into perspective.

Is this going to be something we'll have to deal with for years; will they develop a vaccine, will it mutate to something worse, will it mutate to something innocuous? We don't know. Are we going to lock down the country every time a new virus is identified that happens to have a slightly higher death to infection rate for a select portion of the population and oh by the way that sample is more than likely skewed because it doesn't include the entire population? I sure hope not or else we're doomed. That's no existence; stay to yourselves; only venture out for food or medicine; or even just stay home and have it delivered.

Reasonableness and prudence; people are acting like this is the black death or the Spanish Flu; we've come a long way since those days and nothing to this point has convinced me this is the apocalypse except for what the draconian measures being taken are going to potentially do to the economy and life as we currently know and enjoy.

I wasn't aware this should be considered a Cat 5 Hurricane, that's total devastation. This is going to probably be devastation for the economy so wonder if that's really what you meant. Nobody in their right mind would stay in the path of an actual Cat 5 Hurricane, unless you're either a dumb a$$ or clueless.

Let's instead compare it to a computer model showing a Cat 5 is possible in 2-3 weeks; what do you do, evacuate? After all a Cat 5 Hurricane is completely and utterly devastating; that we know for sure. If you don't evacuate you risk total death and destruction; if you do because of what you know are you making the correct decision? Is the Wuhan Virus comparable to a Cat 5 Hurricane? That's complete news to me.

To this point Wuhan Virus is not completely and utterly devastating; unless we talk about the measures being taken and their effect on the economy; that is already apparent and unfortunately will become even more evident over time.

So, in the end if your perception is I minimized by using statistics that's your choice, I would think taking things in context and not absolutes would benefit everybody. Yes, statistics were compared using the Flu and even to this date it's the only data set we have that's remotely close except our sample size for Wuhan Virus is still way too small.

Peace to all; pray for those affected by the virus (and any sickness or malady) and pray for the rest of us that it doesn't destroy life as we currently know and enjoy. It's been a long and prosperous run that's hanging by a thread which is heavily frayed.
 
LetItSnow said:
I never said Wuhan Virus itself was hype. Comparing statistics is a reasonable and prudent thing to do; I've seen you do that numerous times in your field of study; it doesn't minimize anything, simply statements of fact as we know at the time.

To this point even today we don't have a real number on those who have been infected and have shown minimal if any symptoms. Let's use statistics for a minute with a nursing home having 100 infected patients and 30 die; is the number really 30 of the 100 died or is the sample skewed and did the 100 infect x people each and those infected y and so on so the actual sample is 100 times x times y times..? We don't know, sure testing might give us the proper actual numbers if the CDC/government ever got their act together, however the statistics based on that small sample are skewed heavily. Doesn't minimize the potential seriousness of this situation however it should put things into perspective.

Is this going to be something we'll have to deal with for years; will they develop a vaccine, will it mutate to something worse, will it mutate to something innocuous? We don't know. Are we going to lock down the country every time a new virus is identified that happens to have a slightly higher death to infection rate for a select portion of the population and oh by the way that sample is more than likely skewed because it doesn't include the entire population? I sure hope not or else we're doomed. That's no existence; stay to yourselves; only venture out for food or medicine; or even just stay home and have it delivered.

Reasonableness and prudence; people are acting like this is the black death or the Spanish Flu; we've come a long way since those days and nothing to this point has convinced me this is the apocalypse except for what the draconian measures being taken are going to potentially do to the economy and life as we currently know and enjoy.

I wasn't aware this should be considered a Cat 5 Hurricane, that's total devastation. This is going to probably be devastation for the economy so wonder if that's really what you meant. Nobody in their right mind would stay in the path of an actual Cat 5 Hurricane, unless you're either a dumb a$$ or clueless.

Let's instead compare it to a computer model showing a Cat 5 is possible in 2-3 weeks; what do you do, evacuate? After all a Cat 5 Hurricane is completely and utterly devastating; that we know for sure. If you don't evacuate you risk total death and destruction; if you do because of what you know are you making the correct decision? Is the Wuhan Virus comparable to a Cat 5 Hurricane? That's complete news to me.

To this point Wuhan Virus is not completely and utterly devastating; unless we talk about the measures being taken and their effect on the economy; that is already apparent and unfortunately will become even more evident over time.

So, in the end if your perception is I minimized by using statistics that's your choice, I would think taking things in context and not absolutes would benefit everybody. Yes, statistics were compared using the Flu and even to this date it's the only data set we have that's remotely close except our sample size for Wuhan Virus is still way too small.

Peace to all; pray for those affected by the virus (and any sickness or malady) and pray for the rest of us that it doesn't destroy life as we currently know and enjoy. It's been a long and prosperous run that's hanging by a thread which is heavily frayed.
Click to expand...

I never said Wuhan Virus itself was hype.

"There was and is unbridled media hype and panic."

K.


Doesn't minimize the potential seriousness of this situation however it should put things into perspective.

You know what else puts things immediately into perspective? A common tactic among those (yourself) telling people not to panic because it's "just like the flu" is "well ya know if we actually reported the cases, the death rate really would be _____" How do any of you know these same biases in reporting actual numbers of cases don't occur w/ influenza too (which is a popular virus of comparison)?

Hundreds of thousands of Americans (per year) (or more) likely do not go to the doctor simply because a) they can't afford it b) they contract the flu and don't have severe enough symptoms to warrant a visit c) even for those that do go they get misdiagnosed for common cold or another virus d) "other", you don't suppose this also lowers influenza reporting values? What this means is that the actual numbers of reported cases once testing increases in the US will be largely apples-apples vs the flu and thus the ratios of death rates will be more reliable. Most estimations from the data that's available place the coronavirus as 10x more deadly and 3x more contagious than the flu, that's like comparing the destructive power (in terms of kinetic energy) of a 140 knot (160 mph) category 5 hurricane to a minimal tropical storm, don't you see how terrible such a comparison is?

"Are we going to lock down the country every time a new virus is identified that happens to have a slightly higher death to infection rate for a select portion of the population and oh by the way that sample is more than likely skewed because it doesn't include the entire population? I sure hope not or else we're doomed."

Huh? You do realize the only way to contain this particular highly contagious virus that's again 3x more contagious than influenza is to literally lock down large sections of the US, unless of course you want to completely overload the entire health care system and disallow care for those who desperately need it and have absolutely nothing to do w/ the CoV-19. I strongly suggest reading this piece: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

"Even with different results, moderate social distancing will usually outperform the attempted quarantine, and extensive social distancing usually works best of all."

"Let's instead compare it to a computer model showing a Cat 5 is possible in 2-3 weeks; what do you do, evacuate? After all a Cat 5 Hurricane is completely and utterly devastating; that we know for sure. If you don't evacuate you risk total death and destruction; if you do because of what you know are you making the correct decision? Is the Wuhan Virus comparable to a Cat 5 Hurricane? That's complete news to me."

Both are horrific disasters in their own right, but you're completely missing my point (as usual). If you were a government official, would you be willing to tell people this is just like the flu virus and you shouldn't panic? Do you think that would elicit a response that encourages more preparation or outright complacency? Donald Trump touted this same message for the last few weeks and we see how that's working out for him (horribly).... If you want to see an example of an extreme case of the latter see Iran

Read don't interpret :)
 
Idk bears are strong now to much risk i think
Says tons when imf is going to inject as well as fed things still go down
 
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Webberweather53 said:
I never said Wuhan Virus itself was hype.

"There was and is unbridled media hype and panic."

K.


Doesn't minimize the potential seriousness of this situation however it should put things into perspective.

You know what else puts things immediately into perspective? A common tactic among those (yourself) telling people not to panic because it's "just like the flu" is "well ya know if we actually reported the cases, the death rate really would be _____" How do any of you know these same biases in reporting actual numbers of cases don't occur w/ influenza too (which is a popular virus of comparison)?

Hundreds of thousands of Americans (per year) (or more) likely do not go to the doctor simply because a) they can't afford it b) they contract the flu and don't have severe enough symptoms to warrant a visit c) even for those that do go they get misdiagnosed for common cold or another virus d) "other", you don't suppose this also lowers influenza reporting values? What this means is that the actual numbers of reported cases once testing increases in the US will be largely apples-apples vs the flu and thus the ratios of death rates will be more reliable. Most estimations from the data that's available place the coronavirus as 10x more deadly and 3x more contagious than the flu, that's like comparing the destructive power (in terms of kinetic energy) of a 140 knot (160 mph) category 5 hurricane to a minimal tropical storm, don't you see how terrible such a comparison is?

"Are we going to lock down the country every time a new virus is identified that happens to have a slightly higher death to infection rate for a select portion of the population and oh by the way that sample is more than likely skewed because it doesn't include the entire population? I sure hope not or else we're doomed."

Huh? You do realize the only way to contain this particular highly contagious virus that's again 3x more contagious than influenza is to literally lock down large sections of the US, unless of course you want to completely overload the entire health care system and disallow care for those who desperately need it and have absolutely nothing to do w/ the CoV-19. I strongly suggest reading this piece: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

"Even with different results, moderate social distancing will usually outperform the attempted quarantine, and extensive social distancing usually works best of all."

"Let's instead compare it to a computer model showing a Cat 5 is possible in 2-3 weeks; what do you do, evacuate? After all a Cat 5 Hurricane is completely and utterly devastating; that we know for sure. If you don't evacuate you risk total death and destruction; if you do because of what you know are you making the correct decision? Is the Wuhan Virus comparable to a Cat 5 Hurricane? That's complete news to me."

Both are horrific disasters in their own right, but you're completely missing my point (as usual). If you were a government official, would you be willing to tell people this is just like the flu virus and you shouldn't panic? Do you think that would elicit a response that encourages more preparation or outright complacency? Donald Trump touted this same message for the last few weeks and we see how that's working out for him (horribly).... If you want to see an example of an extreme case of the latter see Iran

Read don't interpret :)
Click to expand...

This is not fruitful so lets just end it. Far bigger worries we all face to waste time going back and forth since we could do it pretty much forever and pick at things we each say. Nothing gets accomplished in the end.

I do wish you the best; the world is dramatically different and as my Son is about your age I do fear for both your futures and your opportunities given the potential destruction of our economy unfolding as we speak.
 
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