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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

SD said:
This run of the 4k is actually a little more impressive across NC vs 6z...not as good as 0z
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You're absolutely right much improved actually, I was actually thinking as far as the jackpot zone it's SC but no it's an improvement and interesting b/c the trend was south.
 
The low position still isn't great for CAE and I'm pretty much throwing that NAM out for the area. Temps will screw it all.
 
SD said:
I'm not sure man....only about 42 hrs to go....we are going to need to see it with this run if any NW trending is going to happen IMO
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It doesn't matter, it will end up further NW than what the models show on the day it starts snowing with the highest totals.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Despite the s/w being stronger this run, the NAM gives a nod to the global models in showing continued suppression of this first wave... The slightly delayed timing is to blame and allows for the SE CAN vortex to more effectively squash our storm. NAM may not be done trending south & more suppressed...
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Yep southward trend still ongoing no doubt, at least so far it hasn't suppressed it to oblivion
 
Webberweather53 said:
Despite the s/w being stronger this run, the NAM gives a nod to the global models in showing continued suppression of this first wave... The slightly delayed timing is to blame and allows for the SE CAN vortex to more effectively squash our storm. NAM may not be done trending south & more suppressed...
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If it keeps getting more and more suppressed would this by chance somehow help us with the 2nd storm?
 
This screams elevations at 1200'+ Lookout Mountain is setting pretty ATM

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NorthGaWinter4 said:
Care to give us a solid reason this ends up NW besides "99% of the time storms trend NW?"
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I think that's reason enough. Over and over again we have seen the bigger totals end up NW of what the models showed on the day of the storm.
 
Again, worth re-iterating here that the canonical last second NW trend isn't applicable in every situation, the s/w was sampled and the new data was ingested into the 12z NAM, plus we're almost inside 48 hours and in fact the south/suppressed trend has only continued, with the NAM still being the most amplified and northernmost outlier atm... In order for this shortwave to actually trend NW the SE CAN vortex needs to lift out faster and this storm needs to be quicker on arrival, and considerably stronger. While the amplitude of the wave has increased, successive runs of the NAM/GFS have slowed the s/w considerably and this difference in timing was more than enough to compensate for the higher amplitude...
 
The precip shield was a little wonky and scattered on this run of the nam. That's why there were some winners and losers. With the system being so anemic, I could see that those who get under the best stream of moisture picking up a couple of inches east of the mountains. The rest...could be zilch...
 
^ yeah what eric said. The Cold in Canada is no joke.
 
Spurs up said:
Shawn u buying that?
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I don't buy the crazy NAM. It's probably got it too cold around here regardless of precipitation. GFS was warmer, and Euro gave us the middle finger last night temp wise.

Lets see what the RGEM starts to show tonight.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I think that's reason enough. Over and over again we have seen the bigger totals end up NW of what the models showed on the day of the storm.
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Okay, that's true. This storm has showed zero intent to move NW. If you don't have snow in your backyard. Make a 25 min drive. You aren't the only one missing out as of right now
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
Okay, that's true. This storm has showed zero intent to move NW. If you don't have snow in your backyard. Make a 25 min drive. You aren't the only one missing out as of right now
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I don't care if it hasn't shown any intent to move NW yet on the models. Most of the time the higher totals still end up NW of what the models show. Of course, we have to actually get a storm to begin with.
 
Don't get me wrong though, we've seen a number of cases where models underestimate the northern extent and intensity of the precipitation shield during isentropic upglide/overrunning, but I would like for at least one other model to back up the NAM & for the suppressed trend to come to a halt and reversed before I start buying into their being any significant snow across central NC, especially north of Fayetteville.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Don't get me wrong though, we've seen a number of cases where models underestimate the northern extent and intensity of the precipitation shield during isentropic upglide/overrunning, but I would like for at least one other model to back up the NAM & for the suppressed trend to come to a halt and reversed before I start buying into their being any significant snow across central NC, especially north of Fayetteville.
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I was gonna ask you if the s/w is stronger as shown if this is a possibility, I mean the slp was much further south on that run of the NAM but the northern extent of the precip was just about unchanged, so it did appear to have more precip further north from the slp this run....not expecting this but I'll take any good news I can get Lol
 
Webberweather53 said:
Again, worth re-iterating here that the canonical last second NW trend isn't applicable in every situation, the s/w was sampled and the new data was ingested into the 12z NAM, plus we're almost inside 48 hours and in fact the south/suppressed trend has only continued, with the NAM still being the most amplified and northernmost outlier atm... In order for this shortwave to actually trend NW the SE CAN vortex needs to lift out faster and this storm needs to be quicker on arrival, and considerably stronger. While the amplitude of the wave has increased, successive runs of the NAM/GFS have slowed the s/w considerably and this difference in timing was more than enough to compensate for the higher amplitude...
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You may be right about all of that but I bet the precip shield will be further north than advertised when all is said and done.
 
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