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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

Storm5 said:
Euro is trying for a CMC like solution for next week but it's MUCH weaker


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Warmer too, but I guess that option is on the table. UKMET, GGEM, Euro.
 
Storm5 said:
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Ill take my 2-3" maybe half inch if melting ha right over southeast TN and be happy.
 
I see Dr. No is alive and well!

Although for March, its still a wonder that this is happening at all
 
Well, that's it folks. I'm sure the EPS will have some big members to keep everyone watching. What a jerk of a model.
 
Shawn said:
Well, that's it folks. I'm sure the EPS will have some big members to keep everyone watching. What a jerk of a model.
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Huh??? This is still a good system for Tennessee and Nc isn't done with this one at all


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There's a beautiful snow hole over NE NC that I personally hold Shane and Charlie responsible for...... :cool:
 
Storm5 said:
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Although the euro brings totals down again for northern parts of Tennessee I'm actually still optimistic we could see more up here. I am no weather pro whatsoever so take this with a grain of salt. I just have a feeling northern areas in Tennessee will do a little better then what has been shown the last few runs.
 
Lol this is what happens when the shortwave keeps slowing down, the northern stream has time to catch up to our initial overrunning wave and phases w/ it, hence you end up w/ one massive storm instead of 2, in what would amount to an all or nothing scenario from NC and points northward... The CMC was very close even a day or so ago to a triple phase near the eastern seaboard and the Euro is only a few hours away (wrt timing) from an absolute monster off the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic... The uncertainty in this setup is unusually high and we need to at least until 12z tomorrow to have a decent first guess on our initial overrunning wave across the upper-mid south.
 
12z euro is yet another solution for the east coast on Tuesday even though it does not phase like the CMC still spanks the MA to NE


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The GFS ensemble members show several hits for Raleigh. Courtesy of Weatherbell.
 
tonysc said:
And this my friends is why I never give up on snow till the end of March. Have seen it too many times.
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Hope you are talking about seeing rain!? That's about all SC will see, at best!
 
12z euro isn't that far off . Just needs the northern stream to speed up to give NC a better chance early next week


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Some of you folks are hilarious with how often you throw in the towel so soon.
 
Storm5 said:
I agree too much bitching going on for a possible snow threat in MARCH!!!!!


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I don't like how you say "possible". At this point there should be more confidence, being close to 2 days out.
 
Storm5 said:
I agree too much bitching going on for a possible snow threat in MARCH!!!!!


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And people seem to forget we always walk the line here, especially in NC, and just the smallest of things can make the difference between getting nothing or a huge storm.
 
Allan Huffman going with Dusting to 1/2 for Raleigh. 1/2 to 1 inch for Charlotte and 2-4" with more at higher elevations in East TN and West NC.
 
12z eps favors a western track with the Monday Tuesday east coast storm . 12z Canadian ensembles were west of the 12z CMC as well


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CoreyTheSecond said:
Isn't the 12z Nam close to snow for Atlanta?
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Not at all for Atlanta itself, but rather areas such as Forsyth NEward and then north of Carrolton Northward while Cherokee is entirely missed per the 12Z. There is a warm nose that will probably verify and take Forsyth and Dawson out though.

As far as the Euro is concerned now, I think it was a bad run, or that it is outside it's best prediction area. I would be paying more attention to the NAM at this point, and starting tomorrow the other short range models. However, if there begins to be a slower trend in the models, I would hang up any snow chances in NC for Sunday. However, I would then begin to bank more on a Monday or Tuesday storm due to a delay in the system, but the cold air will be present. If the storm does slow, the East half of NC won't do well, but the other half would.
 
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Slowly but surely the EPS has been coming around to the idea of a coastal bomb near the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic on Monday & Tuesday. Worth re-iterating even if this overrunning event doesn't materialize, at least if you're in the Carolinas and points north, you're not entirely out of the woods wrt wintry weather.
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Webberweather53 said:
Slowly but surely the EPS has been coming around to the idea of a coastal bomb near the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic on Monday & Tuesday. Worth re-iterating even if this overrunning event doesn't materialize, at least if you're in the Carolinas and points north, you're not entirely out of the woods wrt wintry weather.
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Do you think that if this thing does bomb off the coast, that it could bring in enough cold air to Georgia and parts of SC to give snowfall?
 
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