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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

Meh, Canadian:

GGEM.png
 
Well this one really hurts watching it slip away when the models did nothing but bring us victory for 2 days straight. Maybe the euro throws us another miracle run and gives the middle finger to the other models. Doubtful but one can still hope.
 
Reality for most is cold rain. Sure there might be a few flakes or sleet pellets for a brief window and of course a select few will be delighted. I'm in Birmingham so this system has always been a cold rain for us. I'd much rather go back to sunny and 75!
 
I kind of buy what the GFS is showing for next week, but probably to not as strong of an extent temp wise, but anything beyond that? When pigs fly...
 
GTWXAlum said:
Fwiw, the Euro from last night and this morning's Canadian look nothing like that for the same timeframe
Click to expand...

The EPS actually does...
We'll likely have a deep and massive glacier sitting to our north after the storm early next week, hopefully we avoid getting a cold rain CAD event.
eps_z500a_noram_39.png
 
If I was to take a swing at what would actually happen, I would say that parts TN gets a light dusting to an inch, the Smokies get 3" - 5", North AL gets flakes to a dusting, same with North GA, but for areas like Canton to Gainesville, likely there will be only flakes on the back side for less time than the other areas. For NC and upper SC, I would say a dusting to an inch in the end, but for upper NC, they may not get anything at all.
 
It honestly amazes me that winters like 1935-36 even exist in the historical record with as infrequent as it snows down here, especially of late... 5 significant accumulating snows in RDU in one winter is virtually unheard of, much less to have one every month of the winter.
December 22-23 1935 NC Snowmap.png

December 28-29 1935 NC Snowmap.png

January 26-27 1936 NC Snowmap.png

January 29-31 1936 NC Snowmap.png

February 6-7 1936 NC Snowmap.png

February 21-22 1936 NC Snowmap.png

March 17-18 1936 NC Snowmap.png
 
Okay. I never got around to posting it, nor do I believe in it but here are the COBB output numbers for CAE:

12z NAM:
Code: 
 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%
============================================================================================================================
170312/0800Z  44  05009KT  42.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02    0|  0|100
170312/0900Z  45  05009KT  38.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.092    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11    0|  0|100
170312/1000Z  46  04009KT  37.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.116    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23    0|  0|100
170312/1100Z  47  03011KT  36.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.089    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.32    0|  0|100
170312/1200Z  48  02011KT  35.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.170    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.49    6|  4| 90
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170312/1300Z  49  02011KT  34.2F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.219    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.71   31| 23| 46
170312/1400Z  50  02013KT  33.5F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.249    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.95   45| 37| 18
170312/1500Z  51  03012KT  32.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.198    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.15   87|  0| 13
170312/1600Z  52  03011KT  31.9F  SNOW   14:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.154   14:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.31  100|  0|  0
170312/1700Z  53  04010KT  31.5F  SNPL   11:1| 1.7|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.147   13:1|  3.8|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 1.45   82| 18|  0
170312/1800Z  54  04009KT  31.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.063   13:1|  3.8|| 0.05|| 0.07|| 1.52    0|  0|100

12z GFS:
Code: 
 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%
============================================================================================================================
170312/0900Z  45  09003KT  44.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03    0|  0|100
170312/1200Z  48  05013KT  37.7F  RAPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11    5|  8| 87
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170312/1500Z  51  06011KT  35.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.085    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20    0|  0|100
170312/1800Z  54  06009KT  40.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20    0|  0|  0
170312/2100Z  57  05009KT  42.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20    0|  0|  0
170313/0000Z  60  06006KT  41.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170313/0300Z  63  08005KT  37.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
170313/0600Z  66  04006KT  36.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
170313/0900Z  69  05008KT  36.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
170313/1200Z  72  04010KT  34.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170313/1500Z  75  04013KT  36.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|100
170313/1800Z  78  03011KT  35.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09    0|  0|100
170313/2100Z  81  03013KT  36.2F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11    0|  0|100
 
Yeah I'm not sure why the NAM does it but in its longer range I think it strings out the precip for whatever reason. We're going to see the correct look shortly and that will be very light precip. The most likely best case is going to be a coating-1". Second system wins and NE/MA is fat and happy. :sad:
 
So does anyone know why last nights euro gave us so much snow? I don't recall the euro ever giving us so much snow vs other models and being wrong so close to an event. I really thought I'd wake up to all the other models following the euro but boy was I wrong.
 
olhausen said:
So does anyone know why last nights euro gave us so much snow? I don't recall the euro ever giving us so much snow vs other models and being wrong so close to an event. I really thought I'd wake up to all the other models following the euro but boy was I wrong.
Click to expand...

Tennessee might still be a decent spot. But if not, while I'd still trust the Euro over any other model, it's best to start looking at short range models this close. What the NAM shows early, not later is probably right and it's light precip at best. :\
 
The 12Z Euro is much better for far north GA into central SC with a further south track/colder push of the Arctic high/more wedging.
 
The mid-Atlantic is getting a huge snow on the 12Z Euro on 3/14. I hear the boos.
 
SD said:
smash job for the mtns, foothills, nw piedmont and most of Va
Click to expand...

Awesome! Raleigh is always too far north, south, east, or west to get any snow. Guess you don't owe me that steak now.
 
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