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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

I'm not sure if I like or despise the trend overnight. The GFS looks the same, maybe a hair south, the NAM at 6Z is the best one by far, the CMC looks worse, and the Euro could be bad for areas west of NC, but I can't tell. I feel the south trend has stopped unless something happens in the sampling tomorrow.
 
packfan98 said:
6z GEFS cut back totals from the crazy 0z run. Much more in line with other modeling with 2-3 inches for many areas. I'm sure there are not as many insane individual members. Maybe we are coming to a consensus???

When everyone wakes up, hopefully we can get an EPS report. I'm guessing the mean is slightly higher than the op, especially east of the mountains.
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EPS cut back on totals also, still a 2" mean over SE NC and just a few big dogs in the se but definitely more lighter events

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Anyone compare hour 60 on the NAM 12km and NAM 4km? The 4km seems colder with the dew points and with other temperatures, but the precip area is different. Maybe it is worth taking note on, maybe not.
 
Nam and GFS verbatim is all snow in many areas. Huge change from recent runs. High totals may be to the SE but Wake County and CLT to Rocky Mount may have the best snow and prettiest event during the early mornings after sunrise. High rates on soundings >1"/hr, would be great to see. I'm keeping the Euro in mind so I don't get too excited...


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SD said:
I swear if the Euro wasn't so meh I would be way excited about the GFS/NAM runs overnight.
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I'm feel the exact same way.... at this point I'll just be happy to snow fly and if I eek out a dusting I call it victory (unless the Euro decides today to come back to the party)
 
SD said:
I swear if the Euro wasn't so meh I would be way excited about the GFS/NAM runs overnight.
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Your good! NW trend should start today! May want to chase to Roxboro , at go time!
 
Cardall07 said:
can anyone post the euro map that shows the whole SE?
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SD said:
I swear if the Euro wasn't so meh I would be way excited about the GFS/NAM runs overnight.
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I mean the GFS is plenty cold for all sn for us, looks like the 850 low is to our south, jackpot zone just to our south east what more could you ask for...... oh wait yeah the good Doc to agree :confused:
 
Well if there are going to be "trends" one way or the other and head towards a general consensus the 12z runs about 48hrs out are generally when you start to see that so let's see what today brings.
 
metwannabe said:
I mean the GFS is plenty cold for all sn for us, looks like the 850 low is to our south, jackpot zone just to our south east what more could you ask for...... oh wait yeah the good Doc to agree :confused:
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I mean I guess the 6z GFS did trend toward the Euro it cut MBY from 6 to 2 so who knows. I'm just sitting back enjoying the ride at this point and hoping to at least get some snow
 
SD said:
I mean I guess the 6z GFS did trend toward the Euro it cut MBY from 6 to 2 so who knows. I'm just sitting back enjoying the ride at this point and hoping to at least get some snow
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You know we always say we are going to enjoy the ride (I've said it a thousand times) but when we know the ride ends in a crash do we really enjoy it as we ride? LOL!;)
 
Love the runs overnight. Great trends. The big thing is all the models are showing at least a decent event here.
 
metwannabe said:
You know we always say we are going to enjoy the ride (I've said it a thousand times) but when we know the ride ends in a crash do we really enjoy it as we ride? LOL!;)
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Yes, I just looked at the NAM/GFS/CMC on pivotal, to hell with it I am going to enjoy it even if we end up with meh.
6z GFS for the next 7 days
sn10_acc.us_ma.png
 
SD said:
I swear if the Euro wasn't so meh I would be way excited about the GFS/NAM runs overnight.
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Wouldn't be surprised if all three do some flip flopping with totals. Guess we just have to wait and see if they come to a concensus.
 
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