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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

996 off the coast of NC. Have fun MA peeps.

next frame. 986.
 
North Central NC does fairly well with next week per the crazy CMC but a low that close to the coast favors western sections....
 
Well that was fun. Disabling live thread mode now everyone.
 
I hope somebody on this board gets something decent out of this.... for mby I'm losing what little hope I had, miss me to my south, west and north.
 
Can we get next weeks system to trend east like Sunday's went south....rhetorical question guys, I'm getting salty
 
Well at least it looks likely our friends in TN and NC Mountains getting something fun. Wasn't a total loss.
 
metwannabe said:
Can we get next weeks system to trend east like Sunday's went south....rhetorical question guys, I'm getting salty
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Depends on when it phases . And earlier phase and it's gonna be west . You need a little delay as to when the phase occurs. Go ahead and make sure you have a extra room for me just in case. I'll pm you my credit card number so I can go ahead and book


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Hearing those with better UKMET maps and stuff say it's not a bad deal for NC. Could be close to something nice there.
 
The CMC isn't a bad deal for central to northern NC but it's really cutting it close. That one really needs a shift east.

As long as the second round is strong, the first one is going to be much more of a lighter event outside of some areas, but hey, it's March, and we looked all but done early this week.
 
You watch the second system is going to end up giving me more snow then the first. It's actually happened a few times where I was supposed to get 3-4 inches and eventually ended up with flurries. Then the system that was supposed to be Fluries a few days later ends up laying down an inch and a half of snow. It's definitely not fun watching the totals continue to drop for the north. Oh well maybe this we'll be a nice surprise.
 
Storm5 said:
Depends on when it phases . And earlier phase and it's gonna be west . You need a little delay as to when the phase occurs. Go ahead and make sure you have a extra room for me just in case. I'll pm you my credit card number so I can go ahead and book


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Bruh.... I said rhetorical question Lol. But if it works out the old kid will be back at college so I have a room

Shawn said:
Hearing those with better UKMET maps and stuff say it's not a bad deal for NC. Could be close to something nice there.
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Yeah storm answered it, from what I've seen it's good for western NC..... could be huuuuuuge though
 
metwannabe said:
Bruh.... I said rhetorical question Lol. But if it works out the old kid will be back at college so I have a room


Yeah storm answered it, from what I've seen it's good for western NC..... could be huuuuuuge though
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My plows will like the sound of this
 
metwannabe said:
Bruh.... I said rhetorical question Lol. But if it works out the old kid will be back at college so I have a room


Yeah storm answered it, from what I've seen it's good for western NC..... could be huuuuuuge though
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Hahahah in missed the rhetorical part lol


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Hey Eric, where would that triple phase ideally need to take place for me and you here in the Triangle? Would a triple phase really put us in the game outside the mountains?
 
Great gefs run for western NC for the non/tue storm
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Cary_Snow95 said:
Hey Eric, where would that triple phase ideally need to take place for me and you here in the Triangle? Would a triple phase really put us in the game outside the mountains?
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Essentially we need to thread the needle very meticulously, even a minor error in the track, intensity, and coverage/intensity of precipitation and availability of ambient cold air &/or the ferocity of a robust a geostrophic cross-frontal circulation that provides a continuously renewable supply of cold air that is produced via damming east of the Appalachians are all important considerations.The triple phase needs to occur somewhat late (similar to what the models have right now, perhaps a touch sooner if anything) and the wave needs to be relatively flat for RDU to score, oth we need a storm that's robust to induce enough dynamic cooling to force the column to be sufficiently cold for snow. In most cases, w/ big Miller As (minus a few obvious exceptions) RDU is near to slightly on the warm side of the rain-snow line w/ most of the legitimate snows occurring in the mountains and essentially along and northwest of a line extending from Roxboro thru Greensboro & Winston-Salem, into Statesville to Hendersonville and points northwestward. Climatology and history of these events argue that these aforementioned areas will likely be in relatively close proximity to the rain-snow line here yet again, but there's certainly an outside chance this won't necessarily be the case...
 
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6Z NAM was great garbage. In fact, the entire 6Z and 0Z suite was way worse. I expect cold rain here. There may be some flakes out towards Rome, but the real snow will be in the far north mountains. It would take a trolling system to give me snow out of this now :p.
 
I know it's crazy not to discount the Nam completely given the BIG 3 aren't showing anything (and neither are their ensembles) for Sunday, but man it wouldn't be that hard to get the Nam solution. The wave more SW and stronger at 06z Sun, is a little less flat and more headed towards neutral and just slightly stronger 12z Sun if you compare the 500mb vort maps - but really it's not much.

If we have a chance at anything changing it's with the 12z/18z/00z runs tonight as, believe it or not, the energy involve is still likely not sampled completely. This tends to not really work out for us anyway, but it's worth watching at least until 00z tonight as the energy involved isn't a very large scale feature which is often modeled good enough newly ingested data to be irrelevant (a closed ULL coming ashore, for instance)

FWIW if it seems I'm overly optimistic, I'm not. I don't really believe the Nam and I'm pretty much all in on a dusting or less for Central NC...just posting what can still happen for the optimistic!
 
NAM is still pretty good here. The NAM did the best with the Jan storm here. Of course, it was the one showing the least amount of snow. That seems to be the smart thing to do, go with the one that shows the least. But none of the models are consistently right when it comes to winter storms here and the amount of snow. There is just too much involved when it comes to getting snow here to depend on any of them to get it right consistently. The best thing to do is just look at them all, see all the possible outcomes they show, and then just wait and see what happens. But it is fun to see what could happen.
 
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Brick Tamland said:
NAM is still pretty good here. The NAM did the best with the Jan storm here. Of course, it was the one showing the least amount of snow. That seems to be the smart thing to do, go with the one that shows the least. But none of the models are consistently right when it comes to winter storms storms here and the amount of snow. There is just too much involved when it comes to getting snow here to depend on any of them to get it right consistently. The best thing to do is just look at them all, see all the possible outcomes they show, and then just wait and see what happens. But it is fun to see what could happen.
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always figure a quarter of what they show and you will be close if a storm verifies
 
Jon said:
I know it's crazy not to discount the Nam completely given the BIG 3 aren't showing anything (and neither are their ensembles) for Sunday, but man it wouldn't be that hard to get the Nam solution. The wave more SW and stronger at 06z Sun, is a little less flat and more headed towards neutral and just slightly stronger 12z Sun if you compare the 500mb vort maps - but really it's not much.

If we have a chance at anything changing it's with the 12z/18z/00z runs tonight as, believe it or not, the energy involve is still likely not sampled completely. This tends to not really work out for us anyway, but it's worth watching at least until 00z tonight as the energy involved isn't a very large scale feature which is often modeled good enough newly ingested data to be irrelevant (a closed ULL coming ashore, for instance)

FWIW if it seems I'm overly optimistic, I'm not. I don't really believe the Nam and I'm pretty much all in on a dusting or less for Central NC...just posting what can still happen for the optimistic!
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There are just enough gefs and eps members showing something close to what the NAM (I mean few members) but just enough to keep hope alive, thanks for your analysis as always
 
POWERSTROKE said:
Definitely fun if you are a contractor like me. Put plows on take them off put them on take them off. Lol I rather just salt
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Speaking of salt, I believe as I was heading out the door this morning that one of our local stations was showing DOT already putting down brine?? Anyone else see this? I mean I hope it was recorded footage and they are just discussing it b/c otherwise that is about the biggest waste of tax payer dollars......
 
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