Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

[Webberweather53]

0z CMC begins as snow but transitions to moderate-heavy sleet and freezing rain across much of NC as the event progresses, providing a nice coating of glaze &/or heavily compacting any snow received in the earlier stages of the storm... Definitely a believable scenario (esp given our luck of late w/ winter storms) and w/ warm ground temps, some of the snow especially near the onset may not stick to the ground which would only further hamper snow accumulations here... Hence, be extremely weary of getting sucked into "total snow" maps which spit out even as little as 3-6 inches of snow east of the NC mountains, actual totals are liable to be at least half or even a third of that if these aforementioned conditions are realized.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Still think the place to be is going to end up being NE TN/NW NC but unless there is a major change, a lot of the upper south is going to see a nice event imo, especially for late in the year...

 

[olhausen]

Good lord the cmc does dump on central and northern Tennessee!

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[olhausen]

Good lord the cmc does dump on central and northern Tennessee!

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Edit: Time to watch stranger things on Netflix and then see what the Euro brings us.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[mrdaddyman]

0z CMC begins as snow but transitions to moderate-heavy sleet and freezing rain across much of NC as the event progresses, providing a nice coating of glaze &/or heavily compacting any snow received in the earlier stages of the storm... Definitely a believable scenario (esp given our luck of late w/ winter storms) and w/ warm ground temps, some of the snow especially near the onset may not stick to the ground which would only further hamper snow accumulations here... Hence, be extremely weary of getting sucked into "total snow" maps which spit out even as little as 3-6 inches of snow east of the NC mountains, actual totals are liable to be at least half or even a third of that if these aforementioned conditions are realized.View attachment 406

Isn't the CMC a much lower resolution model than the GFS and Euro? Not to say that it would be wrong necessarily.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Still think the place to be is going to end up being NE TN/NW NC but unless there is a major change, a lot of the upper south is going to see a nice event imo, especially for late in the year...

I think the Cumberland plateau around Cookeville and Crossville will be a good spot. That's where i'm thinking of going.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Is that a foot of snow in Kansas City ?

 

[Storm5]

Gefs looks really good for the northern half of Tennessee


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Storm5]

Wow

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Storm5]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Webberweather53]

Isn't the CMC a much lower resolution model than the GFS and Euro? Not to say that it would be wrong necessarily.

Yes, you're right, the CMC runs with a horizontal resolution 25 km, while the GFS is run at 13km and high resolution ECMWF at 9km, however for regional-scale applications (RGEM), it's run at 10km and out to 48 hours, oth through my experience in the last several years in monitoring NC winter weather, the GEM/CMC tends to consistently out perform the GFS during CAD events...

 

[GaWx]

The 0Z Euro is about to be even colder as it is slower and letting more cold air and wedging get in place in advance.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

WOW EURO?

 

[GaWx]

But it actually yielded less snow in some places.

 

[olhausen]

But it actually yielded less snow in some places.

Yeah I'll say. Euro went from 5 inches this afternoon to 1 inch now. Gfs also dropped my totals but it was only one run so I didn't think much of it. Seems Nashville is in the sweet spot for now.

 

[accu35]

for those who can't sleep, and is under the sheets looking at this.

 

[Tarheel1]

6z GFS = meh! Not much change from last run, NC bullseye

 

[Webberweather53]

Accounting for warm ground temps melting at least the first bit of snow that falls, the lower ratios (< 10:1), and potential for mixing w/ sleet and freezing rain in central and eastern NC (especially further south & east where the heavier precipitation is), cut these modeled snow totals by ~ 45-65%...

ECMWF


GFS


CMC




NAM



In general accounting for these aforementioned biases, the models are generally saying for areas east of the mtns...

ECMWF: Trace-0.5" (locally up to 1")
GFS: 1-3"
CMC: 1-2"
NAM: 2-4"
The consensus is somewhere around 1-2" of snow/sleet w/ locally ~3" in central and eastern NC. A low end event, but certainly a rare treat for mid-late March...

 

[Metwannabe]

Webb is spot on as usual and a great reminder that clown maps are fun to look at but always temper expectations. Also at least looking on my phone the GFS appeared colder to me this run and colder for the second system also with some back end snow with that up this way.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

 

[packfan98]

6z GEFS cut back totals from the crazy 0z run. Much more in line with other modeling with 2-3 inches for many areas. I'm sure there are not as many insane individual members. Maybe we are coming to a consensus???

When everyone wakes up, hopefully we can get an EPS report. I'm guessing the mean is slightly higher than the op, especially east of the mountains.