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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

SD said:
Yes, I just looked at the NAM/GFS/CMC on pivotal, to hell with it I am going to enjoy it even if we end up with meh.
6z GFS for the next 7 days
sn10_acc.us_ma.png
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Love it. 3" or more over Chattanooga TN
 
metwannabe said:
Well if there are going to be "trends" one way or the other and head towards a general consensus the 12z runs about 48hrs out are generally when you start to see that so let's see what today brings.
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If we see any significant trends and/or flip-flopping liable to occur sometime tomorrow when our disturbance is sampled by RAOBs
 
SD said:
Cant happen soon enough
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The "properly sampled " thing gets over used, IMO ! Nothing much changed on the Jan. event, on major models with regards to QPF and track, the NAM just came in and brought the 850's pain!
 
Tarheel1 said:
The "properly sampled " thing gets over used, IMO ! Nothing much changed on the Jan. event, on major models with regards to QPF and track, the NAM just came in and brought the 850's pain!
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I disagree. After being sampled it made a huge difference. The wave dug more and more each run.
And the NAM is only out to 24, assuming your last statement was referencing the current run.
 
Tarheel1 said:
The "properly sampled " thing gets over used, IMO ! Nothing much changed on the Jan. event, on major models with regards to QPF and track, the NAM just came in and brought the 850's pain!
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Yeah, once the disturbance came on shore of the Pacific NW in January, the models unanimously flipped to a much stronger s/w which had profound implications downstream including more QPF and a the stereotypical last sec NW shift. I'm sure some will recall how I pointed out on this forum that the initial sampling of the ULL that would spark this S/W over southern Alaska is what led to a rather abrupt change in the guidance to showing a storm in the first place. Sampling really does matter, especially when the satellite observations are fraught with errors that are an order of magnitude or so higher than radiosondes.
 
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Tarheel1 said:
The "properly sampled " thing gets over used, IMO ! Nothing much changed on the Jan. event, on major models with regards to QPF and track, the NAM just came in and brought the 850's pain!
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Lol what ??? You don't remember the massive changes when that energy was sampled . It does matter


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I'm not afraid of QPF here. I imagine .5" is probably pretty doable. The amount of it that falls as snow is the concerning part. I will be very surprised if we don't see the thermals warm a bit as we move in.
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm not afraid of QPF here. I imagine .5" is probably pretty doable. The amount of it that falls as snow is the concerning part. I will be very surprised if we don't see the thermals warm a bit as we move in.
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If we get .5 of QPF I will send you a case of beer, soda, t-bone steak, whatever you want
 
I've been out of the loop at 500mb the last couple of days (surface map pro here!) - anyways.. is the weaker wave what the Euro has been alluding to?
 
From the maps in previous posts, the trajectory of the euro seems much different. Precip bullseye seems more SW-NE instead of the NETN blob and then transfer to central NC on the other models.
 
NAM is slower and a tad cooler thru 60 HR, moderate snow-snow/sleet actually breaking out in far northern MS, extreme northern AL here...
namconus_ref_frzn_seus_46.png
 
The NAM is definitely looks a little more titled to SW/NE Orientation and leaking snow back to MS
 
Temps suck on the Southern part into SC.. so not sure about this map but here:

namconus_asnow_seus_28.png
 
Much more realistic -
fsdfsd.png
 
NAM looks about right for Atlanta metro with the snow shield. Doesn't matter since I'm driving to Chattanooga more than likely.
 
Roswellian said:
For crying out loud. I know this is a model and should be taken with a grain but I am now one county away from snow in that map. I am NOT getting confident or excited but the southward "March" of this thing is fairly impressive.
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Yeah, the grain of salt is indeed large, but if the models say flakes at least, and we end up getting at least flakes, maybe that is a win. It is impressive how this is showing up in March for sure.
 
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