Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

[Webberweather53]

0z CMC begins as snow but transitions to moderate-heavy sleet and freezing rain across much of NC as the event progresses, providing a nice coating of glaze &/or heavily compacting any snow received in the earlier stages of the storm... Definitely a believable scenario (esp given our luck of late w/ winter storms) and w/ warm ground temps, some of the snow especially near the onset may not stick to the ground which would only further hamper snow accumulations here... Hence, be extremely weary of getting sucked into "total snow" maps which spit out even as little as 3-6 inches of snow east of the NC mountains, actual totals are liable to be at least half or even a third of that if these aforementioned conditions are realized.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Still think the place to be is going to end up being NE TN/NW NC but unless there is a major change, a lot of the upper south is going to see a nice event imo, especially for late in the year...

 

[olhausen]

Good lord the cmc does dump on central and northern Tennessee!

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[olhausen]

Good lord the cmc does dump on central and northern Tennessee!

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Edit: Time to watch stranger things on Netflix and then see what the Euro brings us.


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[mrdaddyman]

0z CMC begins as snow but transitions to moderate-heavy sleet and freezing rain across much of NC as the event progresses, providing a nice coating of glaze &/or heavily compacting any snow received in the earlier stages of the storm... Definitely a believable scenario (esp given our luck of late w/ winter storms) and w/ warm ground temps, some of the snow especially near the onset may not stick to the ground which would only further hamper snow accumulations here... Hence, be extremely weary of getting sucked into "total snow" maps which spit out even as little as 3-6 inches of snow east of the NC mountains, actual totals are liable to be at least half or even a third of that if these aforementioned conditions are realized.View attachment 406

Isn't the CMC a much lower resolution model than the GFS and Euro? Not to say that it would be wrong necessarily.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Still think the place to be is going to end up being NE TN/NW NC but unless there is a major change, a lot of the upper south is going to see a nice event imo, especially for late in the year...

I think the Cumberland plateau around Cookeville and Crossville will be a good spot. That's where i'm thinking of going.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Is that a foot of snow in Kansas City ?

 

[Storm5]

Gefs looks really good for the northern half of Tennessee


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[Storm5]

Wow

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[Storm5]

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[Webberweather53]

Isn't the CMC a much lower resolution model than the GFS and Euro? Not to say that it would be wrong necessarily.

Yes, you're right, the CMC runs with a horizontal resolution 25 km, while the GFS is run at 13km and high resolution ECMWF at 9km, however for regional-scale applications (RGEM), it's run at 10km and out to 48 hours, oth through my experience in the last several years in monitoring NC winter weather, the GEM/CMC tends to consistently out perform the GFS during CAD events...

 

[GaWx]

The 0Z Euro is about to be even colder as it is slower and letting more cold air and wedging get in place in advance.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

WOW EURO?

 

[GaWx]

But it actually yielded less snow in some places.

 

[olhausen]

But it actually yielded less snow in some places.

Yeah I'll say. Euro went from 5 inches this afternoon to 1 inch now. Gfs also dropped my totals but it was only one run so I didn't think much of it. Seems Nashville is in the sweet spot for now.

 

[accu35]

for those who can't sleep, and is under the sheets looking at this.

 

[Tarheel1]

6z GFS = meh! Not much change from last run, NC bullseye

 

[Webberweather53]

Accounting for warm ground temps melting at least the first bit of snow that falls, the lower ratios (< 10:1), and potential for mixing w/ sleet and freezing rain in central and eastern NC (especially further south & east where the heavier precipitation is), cut these modeled snow totals by ~ 45-65%...

ECMWF


GFS


CMC




NAM



In general accounting for these aforementioned biases, the models are generally saying for areas east of the mtns...

ECMWF: Trace-0.5" (locally up to 1")
GFS: 1-3"
CMC: 1-2"
NAM: 2-4"
The consensus is somewhere around 1-2" of snow/sleet w/ locally ~3" in central and eastern NC. A low end event, but certainly a rare treat for mid-late March...

 

[RBR71]

Webb is spot on as usual and a great reminder that clown maps are fun to look at but always temper expectations. Also at least looking on my phone the GFS appeared colder to me this run and colder for the second system also with some back end snow with that up this way.

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[packfan98]

6z GEFS cut back totals from the crazy 0z run. Much more in line with other modeling with 2-3 inches for many areas. I'm sure there are not as many insane individual members. Maybe we are coming to a consensus???

When everyone wakes up, hopefully we can get an EPS report. I'm guessing the mean is slightly higher than the op, especially east of the mountains.

 

[ForsythSnow]

I'm not sure if I like or despise the trend overnight. The GFS looks the same, maybe a hair south, the NAM at 6Z is the best one by far, the CMC looks worse, and the Euro could be bad for areas west of NC, but I can't tell. I feel the south trend has stopped unless something happens in the sampling tomorrow.

 

[RBR71]

6z GEFS cut back totals from the crazy 0z run. Much more in line with other modeling with 2-3 inches for many areas. I'm sure there are not as many insane individual members. Maybe we are coming to a consensus???

When everyone wakes up, hopefully we can get an EPS report. I'm guessing the mean is slightly higher than the op, especially east of the mountains.

EPS cut back on totals also, still a 2" mean over SE NC and just a few big dogs in the se but definitely more lighter events

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[deltadog03]

I am becoming more impressed with this potential here.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Anyone compare hour 60 on the NAM 12km and NAM 4km? The 4km seems colder with the dew points and with other temperatures, but the precip area is different. Maybe it is worth taking note on, maybe not.

 

[Jon]

Nam and GFS verbatim is all snow in many areas. Huge change from recent runs. High totals may be to the SE but Wake County and CLT to Rocky Mount may have the best snow and prettiest event during the early mornings after sunrise. High rates on soundings >1"/hr, would be great to see. I'm keeping the Euro in mind so I don't get too excited...


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[Cardall07]

can anyone post the euro map that shows the whole SE?

 

[SD]

I swear if the Euro wasn't so meh I would be way excited about the GFS/NAM runs overnight.

 

[RBR71]

I swear if the Euro wasn't so meh I would be way excited about the GFS/NAM runs overnight.

I'm feel the exact same way.... at this point I'll just be happy to snow fly and if I eek out a dusting I call it victory (unless the Euro decides today to come back to the party)

 

[Tarheel1]

I swear if the Euro wasn't so meh I would be way excited about the GFS/NAM runs overnight.

Your good! NW trend should start today! May want to chase to Roxboro , at go time!

 

[Storm5]

can anyone post the euro map that shows the whole SE?

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[BHS1975]

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Weak


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[RBR71]

I swear if the Euro wasn't so meh I would be way excited about the GFS/NAM runs overnight.

I mean the GFS is plenty cold for all sn for us, looks like the 850 low is to our south, jackpot zone just to our south east what more could you ask for...... oh wait yeah the good Doc to agree

 

[RBR71]

Well if there are going to be "trends" one way or the other and head towards a general consensus the 12z runs about 48hrs out are generally when you start to see that so let's see what today brings.

 

[Storm5]

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[SD]

I mean the GFS is plenty cold for all sn for us, looks like the 850 low is to our south, jackpot zone just to our south east what more could you ask for...... oh wait yeah the good Doc to agree

I mean I guess the 6z GFS did trend toward the Euro it cut MBY from 6 to 2 so who knows. I'm just sitting back enjoying the ride at this point and hoping to at least get some snow

 

[RBR71]

I mean I guess the 6z GFS did trend toward the Euro it cut MBY from 6 to 2 so who knows. I'm just sitting back enjoying the ride at this point and hoping to at least get some snow

You know we always say we are going to enjoy the ride (I've said it a thousand times) but when we know the ride ends in a crash do we really enjoy it as we ride? LOL!

 

[Brick Tamland]

Love the runs overnight. Great trends. The big thing is all the models are showing at least a decent event here.

 

[SD]

You know we always say we are going to enjoy the ride (I've said it a thousand times) but when we know the ride ends in a crash do we really enjoy it as we ride? LOL!

Yes, I just looked at the NAM/GFS/CMC on pivotal, to hell with it I am going to enjoy it even if we end up with meh.
6z GFS for the next 7 days

 

[stormcentral]

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Ill take my 1-2" which is almost more then we have got all year in Cleveland and run with it LOL

 

[Brick Tamland]

I swear if the Euro wasn't so meh I would be way excited about the GFS/NAM runs overnight.

Wouldn't be surprised if all three do some flip flopping with totals. Guess we just have to wait and see if they come to a concensus.