It's weather man, it's going to do what it wants regardless. Just relax and let everything get sorted out, it ALWAYS does.
Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
No one should be discouraged from sharing their opinions, but I think the problem a lot of people have with you is that you speak in absolutes and "almighty authority". Even the professional meteorologists who post here don't post like that.
yeah the third system towards the weekend of the 24th would need work but its so far out and things will change so much . I mean just look at the flipping and flopping with the ensembles
12Z EPS mean finally cools back down some to a little BN on 1/28 but it is not nearly as cold as the 0Z EPS or the 12Z GEFS. ALEET, folks, and not in a good way.
D
Deleted member 418
Guest
I just call them like I see them ( i.e., what the model is literally showing) and don't like seeing that. It will change and hopefully for the better but nobody knows the future. Hopefully this is just a drunken burp.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
It's one run after two days of good runs, especially with the ensembles. I don't think it's a red alert.
It has changed. He said it’s warmer
0Z EPS
12Z EPS has less western ridging/E troughing
12Z EPS has less western ridging/E troughing
D
Deleted member 418
Guest
Looks great but has no support. I can’t find anything close to that.Which MJO model does the best? Avg wise?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
And we will find out in about 12 hours if it’s a burp or a gulp!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I think stage 7 was the one Webber was excited about seeing.
H5 doesn’t really make sense so I don’t see a cause for concern. At the surface it’s only ~5F warmer which still puts us in RDU at climo for late jan. It being day 11+ doesn’t have me worried, model could easily pop a ridge there with 00z
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
EPS has the MJO going back into the phase 6 with a deeply +EPO, flooding pacific air, it’s better than a SER but it’s definitely not a good winter storm pattern in the LR based off what it shows, I consider that something to watch, hopefully it’s a blip and not a soon to be dumpster fire part 2
Edit - MJo going to bad phase on it probably contributed to that look, and it could very well be wrong on the progression of it
Edit - MJo going to bad phase on it probably contributed to that look, and it could very well be wrong on the progression of it
Yeah...whoops. The complete -EPO fail is definitely concerning...the models have tried to take it negative a couple of times this winter and it's failed to materialize. When that continually happens it makes you pause and wonder if it's ever going to come.
Yeah, and throw that GEFS -EPO Into the mix certainly makes things more questionable