Welcome to the forum that is 20% weather discussion and 80% whining. Also be sure to visit the dedicated whining thread and buy something from the gift shop. But hey, at least no one bites here.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Welcome to the forum that is 20% weather discussion and 80% whining. Also be sure to visit the dedicated whining thread and buy something from the gift shop. But hey, at least no one bites here.
MichaelJ
Member
And the Weather channel chiming in...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Whew that is very reassuring to me since the Weather Channel is about as accurate as a blind man throwing darts!
The ratio seems pretty in line. After all, winter is 20% winter and 80% poop.
Let’s be honest though our average snow every year is like 4-6 inches ... we only average maybe a good storm a year and we’re really expecting storm after storm to come along ... maybe we over expect too much every year .. we live in the southeast it don’t snow here
RollTide18
Member
Yes but in past years we at least have signs whether they verify or not, the models the past 2 weeks have painted a rather bleak picture.
Yes and we're going on 13 months without a single threat to track. That's not normal for even the south.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
I think you are forgetting the blizzard of April 2019.
tennessee storm
Member
Been spot on unfortunately last few years
Wrong we had storms in March and January last winter definitely trackable events
I don't remember anything making it inside 5 days on multiple models to be called a threat except for December. The FV3 junk may have sucked some people in 3 or 4 days out. and maybe an 84 hr NAM, but never remember anything with real model support and a chance of verifying. Unless you count that April flizzard.
And the Weather channel chiming in...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Unfortunately ,this might be one of the few times where TWC may be correct.With with MJO likely going into warm phases and with the PNA,NAO,and AO being in unfavorable positions,I'm really not expecting much cold for the month of January,atleast until the 2nd half of the month anyway.
Guess depends where you live in NC because we only had storm in December.
whatalife
Moderator
Well that’s a slight difference in the euro 00z and 12z...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yeah the euro was very close to something actually big near the end of its run
If there one thing that’s “consistent”, it’s that there’s a transient troughiness signal around hour 190-240 in the eastern US, models that show this : GFS/Euro, GEFS/GEPS (yes it sucks but it’s sum slight) and let’s see what the eps says, if you wanna score that pattern can deliver, but yeah that run of the euro basically flipped the PNA and Got a East based -NAO
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Is there any moisture from that low?
Ther
e was some light snow for portions of the south east but very light and the low formed a bit too late but any shift could be gang busters
The eps will be very telling
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Ok, buying a snowmobile.
MichaelJ
Member
tennessee storm
Member
Ugh. That was correct below February last year
EPS looks interesting as far as snow. Some big dogs mixed in
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Huh? Their forecast could not have been more wrong if they tried.
It would probably help if you actually bothered to look at the data.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
From the looks of the free maps, there are some downright cold members in there as well. A good handful are well warmer however, but the cold ones range from freezing to near zero in places.
Storm5
Member
Maybe some of those colder ones have more ridging poking into the west coast along with a AK ridge instead of a Aleutian/GOA ridge
From a Meteogram standpoint, about half of the members have snow in GSO from the EPS
olhausen
Member
Not to mention snow on 3 different occasions this season in northern Middle Tennessee including almost a half inch here in early November. It’s not just here either as I’m pretty sure places in Alabama and Georgia also got snow earlier this month. Eastern Tennessee has also done quite good so far this winter. Now I’m not saying the pattern isn't concerning considering what happened last year, but I’ve seen far far worse starts to a winter at this point in the season in prior years.
olhausen
Member
The last time we were anywhere close to a forecast like that for February was in 2015. February of 2016 was near normal but 17,18 and 19 have all been above average.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This period (Jan 5-15) I highlighted a few weeks ago seems to be living on & the pattern change appears to be roughly on schedule. I'll definitely admit, it's not how I envisioned we'd get there w/ the strong tropospheric polar vortex migrating towards Alaska but w/ tropical forcing temporarily returning to the western Hemisphere at the beginning of January & a chunk of the vortex appearing to migrate towards SE Canada & the Lakes, plus the active subtropical jet we've had this winter, I think an opportunity could appear on the horizon in this period of time, which is also near our peak climo for cold.
"...I think a legit window of opportunity for us to pot a winter storm is starting to emerge just before the mid point of January (Jan 5-15 ish)..."
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/the-great-december-dump.650/page-116#post-220711
"I'd wager that the pattern flips for us around January 5-10 ish."
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/the-great-december-dump.650/page-114#post-220390
Based on some back-of-the-envelope research I conducted a few winters ago, if we get a winter storm in this pattern, it would tend to occur about the time -VP200 anomalies associated with this slow moving Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave reach 30-60E longitude, where an upper level westerly wind duct opens up near the equator & encourages equatorward wave propagation in the W Hem. Empirical wave propagation (i.e. extrapolating the propagation of this CCKW forward in time) also would support a threat window sometime during the 2nd week of January (January 8-14) with a day or two of wiggle room on either side.
It would be kind of fitting to have a threat in this period because I have to leave for conference in Boston ~January 11th-12th.
According to an accuweather lead long-range meteorologist, it will cool down some after the first week of Jan and then return to above normal for the second half of Jan. So we have a 7 day window to score.
I had an epiphany today out at the links. The southeast is the new Florida. I think it’s time to accept that. I’m kind of ok with that new reality. It will still snow, sometimes..and those days will be magical. But the days in between will be the days that I live for. And that’s ok..EDIT: read that slowly and more than once..my apologies!
Six Mile Wx
Member
I wonder if this is the same storm that I remember when I was young that dumped on upstate SC.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Six Mile Wx
Member
https://www.greenvilleonline.com/pi...eenville-snow-storm-of-january-1982/23889053/
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
John1122
Member
There was some extreme cold involved in that 1982 system. Eastern Kentucky and Eastern Tennessee had mid 10s below 0 lows and upper single digit to low 10s for highs. Lots of upslope snow too, main system had 4-6 inches here but snow fell on 8 consecutive days. The first 8 days of January that year were really warm too, around +10. The rest of the month was so cold here it finished up -7 for January. Huntsville and Chattanooga got below 0 that outbreak. Athens, Ga had a high of 70 on January 7th and a low of 0 on the 11th. Atlanta went from 67 to -5 from the 7th to the 11th with about 6 inches of snow over 3 days.
So that look can apparently produce huge winter results.