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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

NCHighCountryWX said:
So far this month, Arctic sea ice growth has been second highest on record. More sea ice has formed so far this month than the area of Alaska. Arctic sea ice extent is very close to the 1981-2010 mean.

You won't hear this reported by @CNN @nytimes @BBC or @NPR


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That’s also because we started from one of the lowest points on record and have a strong +AO. This one year of seemingly amazing growth in arctic sea ice during the fall and winter when the preceding summer was exceptionally low doesn’t mean climate change is a hoax :)
I also wouldn’t consider tony heller a reliable unbiased source of information on this matter
 
Our first happy hour of Christmas ? ... Gfs provides the goods .. especially in how the pattern looks down the road .. looks like we’re heavily entrenched in winter by the 10th
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Our first happy hour of Christmas ? ... Gfs provides the goods .. especially in how the pattern looks down the road .. looks like we’re heavily entrenched in winter by the 10th
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We are goin put our eggs in a basket on 6z gfs long range ... trust it? Wait for ensemble support than o my get aroused bit
 
It appears that even BAMwx in a very un-JB manner (kudos for not being stubborn) is more or less already throwing in the towel for January as a whole averaged out with a leaning toward warm in the E US. Also, they are getting rid of daily updates on Twitter if I’m interpreting a recent tweet correctly, which would also be unlike JB.
 
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NCHighCountryWX said:
So far this month, Arctic sea ice growth has been second highest on record. More sea ice has formed so far this month than the area of Alaska. Arctic sea ice extent is very close to the 1981-2010 mean.

You won't hear this reported by @CNN @nytimes @BBC or @NPR


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Thanks for posting this it's good to see, but your comment about CNN and others (especially) NPR is absolute nonsense. Of course you won't hear about it because it's not newsworthy. The Arctic sea ice grows every winter. When we get to the height of the cold season extent in, I think, April it will almost certainly be below the mean again and I'm sure you won't be around to comment on that.
 
crecre9 said:
Thanks for posting this it's good to see, but your comment about CNN and others (especially) NPR is absolute nonsense. Of course you won't hear about it because it's not newsworthy. The Arctic sea ice grows every winter. When we get to the height of the cold season extent in, I think, April it will almost certainly be below the mean again and I'm sure you won't be around to comment on that.
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Lol they’ll always comments on when ice is at its low point but never want to comment when it’s normal and at a high point ... that’s the issue
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Lol they’ll always comments on when ice is at its low point but never want to comment when it’s normal and at a high point ... that’s the issue
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That’s likely because the long term trend doesn’t show any increase or even a quasi-steady conditions. Not to mention, sea ice is still about 2 standard deviations below average, I wouldn’t consider than normal or a “high point”.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Our first happy hour of Christmas ? ... Gfs provides the goods .. especially in how the pattern looks down the road .. looks like we’re heavily entrenched in winter by the 10th
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Yeah because singular long range operational model runs are something we should put a lot of faith in. Only thing you should be looking at beyond day 6-7 are continental and hemispheric scale circulation patterns and other forms of lower frequency variability that influence broader scale standing planetary waves.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah because singular long range operational model runs are something we should put a lot of faith in. Only thing you should be looking at beyond day 6-7 are continental and hemispheric scale circulation patterns and other forms of lower frequency variability that influence broader scale standing planetary waves.
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Oh I know not to put faith in it I’m just saying it was nice to see THATS all ... would rather see a cold pattern than a big south east ridge in the long range it’s more fun to look at
 
Don’t wish for a pattern change if your west of the blue ridge as the 2nd winter event is in the making. This is a very favored area over the Carolinas..and this type of pattern has a history of producing snow in Atlanta when areas further north-east see cold rain.212E5EE1-20F6-4652-9179-98D272A645FC.jpeg
 
GaWx said:
It appears that even BAMwx in a very un-JB manner (kudos for not being stubborn) is more or less already throwing in the towel for January as a whole averaged out with a leaning toward warm in the E US. Also, they are getting rid of daily updates on Twitter if I’m interpreting a recent tweet correctly, which would also be unlike JB.
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They need to get rid of daily updates cause the flip as much as the GFS. If they are going warm January then prepare for vodka cold


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Storm5 said:
They need to get rid of daily updates cause the flip as much as the GFS. If they are going early January then prepare for vodka cold


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I have seen more 180° forecast flips in December as I have ever seen. In a span of 5 days Glen Burns went from “very cold Christmas” to “very warm Christmas”. Pretty pathetic. Why not be honest and say, “unfortunately we cannot trust our models and cannot predict the weather accurately beyond 5-7 days.”


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Color me silly but I just don’t understand the mass panic already. Every model, including the ensembles are all over the place. I’m just saying who the hell knows what’s going to happen for January but I think the panic is just silly right now.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Oh I know not to put faith in it I’m just saying it was nice to see THATS all ... would rather see a cold pattern than a big south east ridge in the long range it’s more fun to look at
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No you’re missing the entire point of my previous post, it’s not nice to see a good or atrocious solution at 300+ hrs in a singular operational model run especially when the pattern doesn’t really support it to begin with. It’s fun to look at but literally means absolutely nothing and you should garner no feelings of sorrow or joy in looking at 15 day model runs. Ensembles are another story of course
 
deltadog03 said:
Color me silly but I just don’t understand the mass panic already. Every model, including the ensembles are all over the place. I’m just saying who the hell knows what’s going to happen for January but I think the panic is just silly right now.
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Not sure anyone is in panic mode...save for the playful banter/sarcasm. The pattern won't be favorable for the next couple of weeks, atleast. I guess I see the arguement that the ensembles haven't been great in the extended but that's really only the ensemble runs that have shown favorable patterns...none of those runs have rolled forward. Those runs have all been wrong.
 
Webberweather53 said:
No you’re missing the entire point of my previous post, it’s not nice to see a good or atrocious solution at 300+ hrs in a singular operational model run especially when the pattern doesn’t really support it to begin with. It’s fun to look at but literally means absolutely nothing and you should garner no feelings of sorrow or joy in looking at 15 day model runs. Ensembles are another story of course
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I enjoy seeing extended panels that show cold and snowy solutions. Personally, I think it's ok to feel good about that, as long as you understand that it's very probable it won't end up like that. Also, when you're seeing run after run of bad, it's hopeful to see some changes being shown in the LR. That's usually how it starts...a few good solutions, followed by a few more and then a few more, and now things are rolling forward you have some support for a change. It sure worked that way this time with the upcoming crap.

And yeah @KyloG, agreed on the panicking. There has been some bantering, but I don't recall seeing a ton of panic out there yet.
 
Merry Christmas guys. My friend Dr. Roundy from University of Albany told me yesterday that he believes phase 6 and then into COD and then back to phase 6. He said two areas of convection. One in the western IO and one in the western Pacific. The western Pacific should take over and be dominant. He didn't mention anything about the maritime continent. He may be wrong or correct.
 
For now, i still believe it's a matter of when not if. I would take a favorable Pacific over a favorable Atlantic anytime. It probably don't matter and hasnt got much attention but so far the soi has dropped pretty good lately. -27.97 fwiw
 
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Mr. Golf said:
Merry Christmas guys. My friend Dr. Roundy from University of Albany told me yesterday that he believes phase 6 and then into COD and then back to phase 6. He said two areas of convection. One in the western IO and one in the western Pacific. The western Pacific should take over and be dominant. He didn't mention anything about the maritime continent. He may be wrong or correct.
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So other words. Let me get this straight ... he maybe right,he May be wrong... sounds like a 50 50 at best then lol
 
The GFS can't decide if it wants a cold blast and possible storm around the 5th or nothing. Too far out to really look at anything else. I am liking the recurring +PNA though and cold blast. The EPS looks to be moving toward a western ridge but wants to buff the SER up too, so we shall see.
 
deltadog03 said:
Color me silly but I just don’t understand the mass panic already. Every model, including the ensembles are all over the place. I’m just saying who the hell knows what’s going to happen for January but I think the panic is just silly right now.
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I wouldn't say anyone is hitting the panic button overall. But the ensembles have been pretty consistent saying we're in a bad pattern throughout the long range. If the first week of Jan rolls around the tPV is still strong and we have no blocking up top and the MJO is in a strong phase 5 how would that not be a cause for concern though? I don't put much faith in Feb anymore. Its been warm for years and this year's pattern seems to be following all the recent years past of warmth. So I doubt Feb will be good either.

At this point we should just hope we can catch a break like Jan 2000 and get a 2 weeks stretch of goods. I'd say the chances of getting a pattern change to sustained cold is a long shot.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
I wouldn't say anyone is hitting the panic button overall. But the ensembles have been pretty consistent saying we're in a bad pattern throughout the long range. If the first week of Jan rolls around the tPV is still strong and we have no blocking up top and the MJO is in a strong phase 5 how would that not be a cause for concern though? I don't put much faith in Feb anymore. Its been warm for years and this year's pattern seems to be following all the recent years past of warmth. So I doubt Feb will be good either.

At this point we should just hope we can catch a break like Jan 2000 and get a 2 weeks stretch of goods. I'd say the chances of getting a pattern change to sustained cold is a long shot.
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Yeah another Jan 2000 would be epic and just torch the rest.


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KyloG said:
Sure looks like EPS is following MJO analog for high amp ph5.



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Ph6 is similar to ph5 but ph7, as we have talked about, is much better. My hope is by mid/end of January we can develop into a more opportunistic pattern.

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The mean is garbage as the members are all over the place. Some show big +PNA and some have the ridge just off the coast allowing the trough to dig in. From my perspective, all I'm seeing is a very progressive pattern.

Also am I the only one who wonders why in all that is good and snowy is the FV3 or GEFS being mentioned at all such as from Cohen above?
 
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