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Severe Strong, slow moving SE storm 12/21-23

Webberweather53 said:
The ECMWF of 2010 was roughly as skillful as today’s Fv3 GFS, that’s how far behind the curve we are with NWP in the US vs Europe.
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What is strange though is it seems the Euro then was better at picking out storms more consistently, but that may just be perception at the time. I know the old GFS as bad as it was more reliable.
 
What are the temps looking like for the event on all of the models, honestly I wouldn't mind CR if it was like this.

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Euro has been consistent with the low pushing towards Alabama coast
 
All models have been consistently increasing rain accumulations for SC as we get closer to verification. Flooding will definitely be in play!!
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Honestly, Webb what causes precipitation to increase in Intensity in SC?
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The track of the upper low has shifted NW in the GFS, slowed down & become stronger in later runs, which increases both the intensity and duration of the moisture fetch on its eastern flank over SC and also shifts this warm conveyor belt further north. Not only does this mean the precip comes northward, but the precip that does come further north on later runs also has the potentially to be more intense. Increasing the strength of the warm conveyor belt strengthens the upstream diabatic ridge downstream of the upper low via potential vorticity redistribution, slowing it down. It's effectively a non-linear positive feedback loop & that's what you're seeing here.

Here's a few animations to reinforce my previous statement(s).

gfs_z500a_eus_fh60_trend (1).gif

gfs_temp_adv_fgen_850_eus_fh54_trend.gif
 
BHS1975 said:
Didn’t SC get flooded like a few years ago?


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Beginning of October 2015. Yes. Not expecting those types of rainfall but eerily similar setup (minus Hurricane Joaquin so no direct tropical infusion of deep tropical moisture)
 
Well another factor, with fairly strong gradient winds and already wet soils, we will most likely have some tree/power issues scattered in
 
Stormsfury said:
Beginning of October 2015. Yes. Not expecting those types of rainfall but eerily similar setup (minus Hurricane Joaquin so no direct tropical infusion of deep tropical moisture)
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This upper low seems to be moving faster as well.


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FWIW 12z Gfs still continuing to increase rain totals for eastern SC especially around Charleston. Makes you wonder ?
 
Not to mention Charleston is more prone to flooding now and that onshore wind with a large fetch won’t be good.


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BHS1975 said:
Not to mention Charleston is more prone to flooding now and that onshore wind with a large fetch won’t be good.


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Agreed, models are showing a pivot with the band of heavy rain across SC. So similar to 2015 whoever under that band will likely get flooding and gusty winds.
 
Looks like the NAM caved to the gfs with precip staying south of Wake co


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So the upper low aloft about 4/5 thousands feet up could support Hurricane force winds bringing surface winds about 40/50 and maybe 60 gusts?
 
too cloudy and stuff I doubt winds mix down.maps never verify
 
Still crazy model to model and run to run variability with the rain totals here. Waffling between 0 and 2.5 is fun

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SD said:
Still crazy model to model and run to run variability with the rain totals here. Waffling between 0 and 2.5 is fun

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Seems pretty obvious to me which one of these camps is more likely to verify.

Over/under of about 2" seems reasonable in your backyard.
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BufordWX said:
High wind watch and a flood watch just got issued for North Georgia.

2-4 inches of rain possible with 20-30 mph winds and 45 mph wind gusts.
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Yeah I wasn’t really watching for the high wind thing, how likely is this to verify? It’s says 45-50mph gusts? That could cause damage, but I’m cautiously hoping someone just going with the frequently aggressive but infrequently correct Euro wind map.....
 
ontherocks said:
Yeah I wasn’t really watching for the high wind thing, how likely is this to verify? It’s says 45-50mph gusts? That could cause damage, but I’m cautiously hoping someone just going with the frequently aggressive but infrequently correct Euro wind map.....
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Not sure how likely it is for the winds to verify, but the FFC has been quite aggressive with their forecast here in regards to winds it feels like. They have me in 25-30 mph winds with gusts between 35-45 mph between 4 pm tomorrow and 4 am Monday. If that verifies coupled with heavy rain power outages are going to be a problem for sure in and around the Atlanta area. Definitely something to monitor.
 
BufordWX said:
Not sure how likely it is for the winds to verify, but the FFC has been quite aggressive with their forecast here in regards to winds it feels like. They have me in 25-30 mph winds with gusts between 35-45 mph between 4 pm tomorrow and 4 am Monday. If that verifies coupled with heavy rain power outages are going to be a problem for sure in and around the Atlanta area. Definitely something to monitor.
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One can only imagine if we had colder air in place here. This would probably be a historic blizzard for the southeast.
 
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