The NAM is much colder aloft than the rest. If we see the other models trending colder, especially aloft the NAM may have credence.
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Severe Strong, slow moving SE storm 12/21-23
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
The NAM is much colder aloft than the rest. If we see the other models trending colder, especially aloft the NAM may have credence.
NAM is extremely close to something in AL, in my opinion that’s wet snow/rain, just a little colder by like a few degrees and that’s a quick paste bomb, especially if rates are high, only issue is that the NAM has been to amped at times with things which contributes to colder air aloft 
Yeah, the NAM is way too amped. That said, the FV3 trended slightly colder at 850mb.
No scientific basis on this next thought, but if the 84hr NAM has that little teeny tiny pocket of frozen precip at the end of the run, you’re going to be disappointed come Sunday
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GFS showing no rain north of I-20 is likely wrong & you can see the model is already adjusting consistently NWward as verification nears.
Same s***, different day.
Same s***, different day.
NoSnowATL
Member
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I'm interested to see how the models verification scores are over the next few days with regards to temperatures and this storm.
Fountainguy97
Member
Not everyday some of the coldest 850s are in Pensacola, FL ??
LovingGulfLows
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accu35
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Temps in the upper 30s into 40s with the heaviest rain bands.
I see the GFS is slowly shifting, correcting, sloshing north with precip shield as we get closer to verification time. Shocker
Question is also how cool (CAD) it will be. 12z NAM has our area staying in the upper 30s low 40s for the 22nd and 23rd (out to hour 84). It looks like the cool temps would extend into Christmas Eve as well. **better than 60 currently forecasted.
SimeonNC
Member
Is wet snow/sleet at the very beginning still a possibility or no.
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Not really. Temps were way too warm.
Maybe a sleet pellet but this CAD is retreating faster than JBs hairline so even sleet is unlikely
Woohoo tied for the strongest inland gust here at 50mph!
Euro is really getting some decent totals up our way. Can't believe the gfs is still near 0
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