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Wintry Potential Dec 13-14 Ice Threat

Jeremy Camp said:
View attachment 27865
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With all due respect that map is bogus, not even close, there will be no snow with this system....

Here is the p-type map of the exact same model (see no snow just freezing rain)
1576175364449.png

Next here is a sounding of the southern most point of frozen precip from the 3k NAM, same model, in extreme NE Ga. Note the very warm temps at 850mb level, a stout warm nose, with surface temps just below freezing. Again no snow just freezing rain

1576175490210.png

Next here is the Kuchera snowfall map (a more accurate snowfall map) notice, no snow accumulation

1576175579275.png

Finally from the 3k NAM the freezing rain map

1576175616755.png

Not calling you out but I just want to make sure anyone that may just see that map and not know otherwise, that this is NOT a snow storm and the reasons that map is horribly wrong.
 
Going to be a close call in W-S. UHI may keep temps up just enough to prevent major icing in the city but suburbs could be a different story. Currently it is 40 with a dewpoint of 20
 
metwannabe said:
With all due respect that map is bogus, not even close, there will be no snow with this system....

Here is the p-type map of the exact same model (see no snow just freezing rain)
View attachment 27871

Next here is a sounding of the southern most point of frozen precip from the 3k NAM, same model, in extreme NE Ga. Note the very warm temps at 850mb level, a stout warm nose, with surface temps just below freezing. Again no snow just freezing rain

View attachment 27874

Next here is the Kuchera snowfall map (a more accurate snowfall map) notice, no snow accumulation

View attachment 27875

Finally from the 3k NAM the freezing rain map

View attachment 27876

Not calling you out but I just want to make sure anyone that may just see that map and not know otherwise, that this is NOT a snow storm and the reasons that map is horribly wrong.
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look at those backing surface winds..... only if was CAPE instead of ZR
 
46/25, would be great any other time, as we are past peak heating, and thin cirrus overspreading the area, stiff NE breeze..
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
HRRR has been getting more chilly in CAD areas, moisture is close, but you can also see latent heat release from raindrops to our south and how better precip rates actually warm it up a bit in GAView attachment 27866HRRR may just show plain rain, but WBZs are definitely supportive of initial ZR, for example this sounding north of CLT, 33 degrees but that WBZ is supportive of a temp around 30 degrees, and note that moist layer from 700mb to 900mb, this is supportive of drizzle already, and dew points are already running to high, that could make a decently big difference, for example instead of 33/26 which WBZ equals 30.7, if you get the dew point a bit lower, like 33/23, your WBZ is now 29.7, its little things like this that makes a big differenceView attachment 27867
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Funny enough I think the 00z GFS showed some sleet in Iredell county.

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GSP

2:45 PM

The main concern for the near-term period continues to be the likely
hood of accumulating freezing rain and possibly some sleet over much
of Western NC from tonight thru tomorrow morning. PoPs reach likely
range over the GA, Western SC, and NC Escarpment zones around midnight.
The cooling of temps remains tricky, with increasing cloud cover but
also evaporative cooling as precip gets underway. The latest run of
the NAM appears a bit quicker to warm temps tomorrow morning as the
parent high moves offshore. The latest model profiles still generate
enough of a warm nose to produce freezing rain where sfc temps are
below 0 degrees C. As previously mentioned, even if the warm nose is
not as strong as fcst, the layer under the inversion will be shallow
and it will be hard to get much refreezing. Overall, the majority of
of our Western NC zones between the Blue Ridge Escarpment and I-85,
excluding the Charlotte metro heat island, will be at or below frz
for at least some of tonight`s precip. Accumulation looks unlikely
to exceed a tenth of an inch in most areas, and unlikely to exceed
a quarter inch throughout. As such, the current Winter Weather Advisory
from 02z to 17z Friday looks good. Precip will likely continue into
Friday afternoon, but should be all rain. It will be a cold and
wedge-like day with breezy NE winds. High temps will be near normal
over the far west, but as much as 15 degrees below normal over the
eastern zones.
 
NWS appears to be in disagreement with GSP. Advisories will be extended till 3pm Friday now for Wilkes and nearby.
 
Snow/sleet bumped up to less than 1”. Ice totals over 0.2” approaching Winter Storm Warning criteria near the blue ridge. Lower elevations up to 0.2” ice.
 
Sweet spot becoming evident. Longer clear skies and decoupling in NWS Blacksburg area vs NWS GSP. 0CBFF45B-8ECF-437D-AA43-C15F286F386D.jpeg
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Thanks. So GSP and Blacksburg are in disagreement? Or are both local offices in disagreement with the NWS?
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Well one chose to increase the duration by 3 hours and amounts approaching warning criteria and added little sleet/snow. The other remains bullish (GSP). I received an alert about an updated winter weather advisory. Any more Increases will be Winter Storm Warning.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Sweet spot becoming evident. Longer clear skies and decoupling in NWS Blacksburg area vs NWS GSP. View attachment 27891
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I was just looking at that exact thing myself. Those high clouds over TN are streaming in quickly, but they look so high and thin that I doubt they’ll have much impact. I think if we can get get down below freezing before midnight, we’ll beat a lot of the thicker cloud cover.
 
I agree with latest afd NWS Raleigh sleet zone prob extends as Far East as Winston-Greensboro.
 
Very interesting. These returns over Georgia.
Hrrr initial radar ingestion has them but hour 1 (first hour of HRRR modeling) the returns disappear.

Probably a negligible difference. But still that’s some pretty early precip.
0B6DCD40-2E61-4419-A8EC-8504F68A31B0.gif
 
interesting to watch the hrrr slowly fold, it’s mixing bias is bad, starting to see some some teens/ isolated single digit dewpoints along the escarpment as precip arrives, also look at the CAD trending stronger with higher mslp over time 12D568BC-8CE5-49AB-B549-0B8DA0DE38C5.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
interesting to watch the hrrr slowly fold, it’s mixing bias is bad, starting to see some some teens/ isolated single digit dewpoints along the escarpment as precip arrives, also look at the CAD trending stronger with higher mslp over time View attachment 27896
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Honestly I might sound way too bullish but if the CAD ends up way stronger than modeled, I can honestly see the escarpment remaining as ZR throughout the afternoon tomorrow.

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SimeonNC said:
Honestly I might sound way too bullish but if the CAD ends up way stronger than modeled, I can honestly see the escarpment remaining as ZR throughout the afternoon tomorrow.

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It’s happened, even with in situ CAD, can be really hard to scour out, unless there’s heavy precip, that is definitely possible
 
SimeonNC said:
18z 3km NAM is way too humid again, current dew points are around 20, NAM has us around 27 at hour 003.

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Seeing those teen DP's creep into Va, this could get interesting out that way real fast in the morning
 
(NEW) GSP Hazardous Weather Outlook


Precipitation will develop from the southwest through the late
evening hours and increase in coverage and intensity through
daybreak Friday. Mainly a cold rain is expected, but temperatures
could be cold enough for some of the precipitation through the early
morning hours to fall as a mixture of freezing rain and sleet before
changing over to rain before daybreak. Spotty light icing on mainly
elevated surface could develop early Friday morning in parts of the
Georgia and South Carolina mountains, as well as the far northern
Upstate near the North Carolina border, and the northern suburbs of
Charlotte
 
Dew point still falling here down from 23 to 21 now temps are also starting falling with some high cirrus clouds
 
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