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Pattern The Great December Dump

One discernible trend on the GEFS is the low over southern Canada lifting north quicker.

GEFS.gif
 
108 and 120... this help and thoughts?
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Honestly a little surprised I figured the euro was shearing the wave into oblivion. It makes me a little more interested but I'm not entirely sold on much at this time. Think at max right now this is an advisory type event unless we had just a perfect overlap in timing.

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Not sure if it was posted already, but here's a much prettier version of these composites:

As I've discussed on here many times, -NAOs are typically much more important for Miller A events. An anafrontal composite basically looks like a blend of these 2 w/ a strong -AO/-EPO/-NAO.

It's also pretty easy to see when you compare against NWP models for this possible ice storm late next week, that we fit more into the Miller B composite, hence there's definitely some predictive value in the planetary-scale wave pattern in determining the type of winter storm that will occur in NC.

North America NCEPR1 z500a NC Miller A Winter Storms (1948-2019).png
North America NCEPR1 MSLPa NC Miller A Winter Storms (1948-2019).png


North America NCEPR1 z500a NC Miller B Winter Storms (1948-2019).pngNorth America NCEPR1 MSLPa NC Miller B Winter Storms (1948-2019).png
 
We have to be careful here that the vortex doesn't lift so far north so quickly that all of our cold air goes with it.

Such a juggling act....it has to lift enough to allow the southern wave to stay intact but not enough to lose the cold air. EPS shifted north too, which allowed the southern wave to stay intact longer.


EPS.gif
 
Todays runs has been pretty good, the Euro/EPS began to move a more favorable solution despite the OP not showing any frozen, and the GFS/GEFS has been holding steady. Things will change ofc but right now I am feeling pretty good.

The next few runs tomorrow and Monday will be important.
 
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Honestly a little surprised I figured the euro was shearing the wave into oblivion. It makes me a little more interested but I'm not entirely sold on much at this time. Think at max right now this is an advisory type event unless we had just a perfect overlap in timing.

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True, but there will be enough qpf that even if there is only frozen precip for a few hours we could reach warning levels.

This is the total precip fallen by 18z Friday. Most of the precip from around I-85 south is from the potential winter storm.

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True, but there will be enough qpf that even if there is only frozen precip for a few hours we could reach warning levels.

This is the total precip fallen by 18z Friday. Most of the precip from around I-85 south is from the potential winter storm.

View attachment 27417

Only place temps support frozen stuff is in NC


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Only place temps support frozen stuff is in NC


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If that hp would have moved east instead of meandering in the same area this run would have been cold and probably below freezing
 
@Webberweather53
Seems that the CFS went poof with that standing wave. Thoughts?
View attachment 27281

Sorry, meant to respond to this earlier. Regarding this forecast, this is a much more favorable look for us in general going forward in December. Looks like the cfs is picking up on a kelvin wave over the central pacific and Western Hemisphere (diagonal green shading) in week 2, which if it occurred would provide a jolt to the subtropical jet and probably entice the development of a -NAO in time for the holiday season. However, the cfs has a systematic bias towards enhanced connective activity over the Pacific-W hem (due to the connective paramaterization in the model) so this forecast may be spurious. Regardless, looks like we are gonna take a real break from Indian Ocean convection for a while which may lend itself towards producing a more favorable pattern later this month
 
I am not interested in wishing or reeling this system into the South Carolina area. It'd be ice, for the most part. No thank you.
So, this may be banner, feel free to move it. But I see people say things like this a lot. So you’re telling me, sincerely, that you rather take rain in the mid 30s than ice? It’s been nearly 6 years since Columbia has seen anything even somewhat close to significant (significant being like a inch of snow or 0.25 of ice). I see this from Mets on tv also, and it’s just hard to believe. I just feel like as passion as most of us are with weather, deep down, even when it can be dangerous, we really want what others probably wouldn’t want. Example being a crippling ice storm or a hurricane. Look, I don’t want the damage or potential risk to the safety of others at all. I get it, I own a house, have trees around my house and everything. But I just feel like that’s an age old act that Mets or weather enthusiast do, act like they wouldn’t want something but deep down, you do. The passion in us wants it, even though there may be consequences. So, that being said, bring on a ice storm if that’s our only option Winter weather wise.
 
So, this may be banner, feel free to move it. But I see people say things like this a lot. So you’re telling me, sincerely, that you rather take rain in the mid 30s than ice? It’s been nearly 6 years since Columbia has seen anything even somewhat close to significant (significant being like a inch of snow or 0.25 of ice). I see this from Mets on tv also, and it’s just hard to believe. I just feel like as passion as most of us are with weather, deep down, even when it can be dangerous, we really want what others probably wouldn’t want. Example being a crippling ice storm or a hurricane. Look, I don’t want the damage or potential risk to the safety of others at all. I get it, I own a house, have trees around my house and everything. But I just feel like that’s an age old act that Mets or weather enthusiast do, act like they wouldn’t want something but deep down, you do. The passion in us wants it, even though there may be consequences. So, that being said, bring on a ice storm if that’s our only option Winter weather wise.
Wrong. That’s just plain evil man.
 
So, this may be banner, feel free to move it. But I see people say things like this a lot. So you’re telling me, sincerely, that you rather take rain in the mid 30s than ice? It’s been nearly 6 years since Columbia has seen anything even somewhat close to significant (significant being like a inch of snow or 0.25 of ice). I see this from Mets on tv also, and it’s just hard to believe. I just feel like as passion as most of us are with weather, deep down, even when it can be dangerous, we really want what others probably wouldn’t want. Example being a crippling ice storm or a hurricane. Look, I don’t want the damage or potential risk to the safety of others at all. I get it, I own a house, have trees around my house and everything. But I just feel like that’s an age old act that Mets or weather enthusiast do, act like they wouldn’t want something but deep down, you do. The passion in us wants it, even though there may be consequences. So, that being said, bring on a ice storm if that’s our only option Winter weather wise.

Love a good sleet storm but could care less about freezing rain. But Raleigh hasn’t had a major freezing rain storm since 2002.
 
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