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Pattern The Great December Dump

The GEFS projects AO ~+2.0 and NAO ~+1.7 for 12/12-3, the time of the potential major ZR at ATL.

Out of 28 major winter storms at ATL since 1950, here are the most + AO/NAO combos:

1/9/62 1.8, 0.6: SN


1/18-9/62 2.8, 0.2: ZR


3/13/93 1.7, 0.5: SN


1/28-30/00 3.5, 0.4: ZR


3/1/09 2.3, 1.0: SN


2/12/14 1.0, 0.8: ZR

So, IF this ends up being a major at ATL, the ~+1.7 would by far be the most +NAO with the closest being +1.0 (3/1/09). The AO of ~+2.0 would be 3rd highest.

Just how high is a +1.7 NAO? Since 1950, only ~2% of days have been at +1.7+ and the last one was way back on April 22. The record high is ~+2.6.
 
WxWatch said:
Yes, the Euro can be more reliable in some cases, but not always. I wouldn't go with just with one model. This is where the blending of other models come into play.

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Blend with reality not what you want to happen and 90% of the time or more you'll be closer to right than disappointed.
 
Seeing comments about still 6 days out, etc... thing is the pieces that may or may not work out for us, will be in positions that will give a solid idea of where we're heading in just a couple of days. Really have to learn to look at more than just the end result. Just my .2 worth today....now back to enjoying this wonderful mountain air!

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GaWx said:
The GEFS projects AO ~+2.0 and NAO ~+1.7 for 12/12-3, the time of the potential major ZR at ATL.

Out of 28 major winter storms at ATL since 1950, here are the most + AO/NAO combos:

1/9/62 1.8, 0.6: SN


1/18-9/62 2.8, 0.2: ZR


3/13/93 1.7, 0.5: SN


1/28-30/00 3.5, 0.4: ZR


3/1/09 2.3, 1.0: SN


2/12/14 1.0, 0.8: ZR

So, IF this ends up being a major at ATL, the ~+1.7 would by far be the most +NAO with the closest being +1.0 (3/1/09). The AO of ~+2.0 would be 3rd highest.

Just how high is a +1.7 NAO? Since 1950, only ~2% of days have been at +1.7+ and the last one was way back on April 22. The record high is ~+2.6.
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After staying negative near neutral the majority of the time since April it decides to go raging positive on December 1st. Ridiculous. Screenshot_20191207-162221_Chrome.jpgI'm convinced we cant get a -NAO in winter anymore.
 
Even with the most modest model blend, we’re looking at a raging rainstorm with a retreating high pressure. How cold will the rain be? Should the mountains be on Aleet mode? Will Roxboro see anything frozen? Those are really the only plausible questions left to be answered imo
 
I may have missed it but does anyone have decent euro 500mb vort maps at 108 and 120? That wave is going to really deamplify as it moves east and the secondary wave dives in behind it

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From early look, GFS gonna be another icy run for CAD region, precip blossoms on Wednesday over AL,MS
 
Could someone explain why the hp is so slow on the GFS vs other models that have it exiting so quickly
 
GFS looks pretty good. Going to be another wintery run. Looks little more amped.
 
Well it’s definitely slow with cold air. For South Carolina it’s cold rain. NC gets a significant winter storm


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You can see why it’s warmer for places further south. #SER

2FAFF55A-2C53-433E-A5B2-B548FD910C50.gif
 
SD said:
I may have missed it but does anyone have decent euro 500mb vort maps at 108 and 120? That wave is going to really deamplify as it moves east and the secondary wave dives in behind it

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108 and 120... this help and thoughts?
1fd26478250a0d48743847c491af76b2.jpg
d04f7a7380e5e0d41e19b3f78c2735fa.jpg


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