In all fairness to Brad, he’s had some pretty big busted forecasts the last few years especially for those of us in the southeastern part of CLT metroIt's Brad P I know but I don't think this is a horrible take on tracking winter storms.
He says we're not even to step 1 yet, obviously that's bull ?.
View attachment 27001
Next euro runs when 9pm or so? I wouldn’t be surprised if it backs off.
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Usually, high QPF and deep cold, don’t occur together. That’s a reason the South hasn’t seen many 12” + snowstorms.After spending time looking over data and coming up with thoughts I have came up with a prediction. This is not a forecast, it is a prediction which this prediction has a good chance at verifying. I have not backed down for days now. Keep in mind, I use a blend of models (not just one, or two, or three) to generate my predictions.
Using a blend of the Euro, GFS, CMC and the GEFS/EPS this is what I have came up with (map below) I think the Euro is 24 hours too slow with the storm system. So, instead of the low developing Wednesday into Thursday, I think the storm system will begin to develop Tuesday and track along the Gulf coast and out along the southeastern coast by dawn Wednesday. Why? because the polar and STJ is going to converge Tuesday afternoon/evening, at that point, the low pressure will develop quickly and start tracking along the fast moving jet streak over night Tuesday into Wednesday. At the time of the convergence, overrunning is possible Tuesday evening before the low kicks out and rides along the fast moving jet.
The low pressure system will likely be a fast mover, due to the convergence of the polar and sub-tropical jet, thus will increase jet streak winds high as 140kts. Even though, the low pressure system will likely be a fast mover, I do think it will bring tremendous amounts of snow totals because there will be strong convection in the upper-levels. The strong convection would be caused by, of course strong vertical motion due to the convergence of the polar and STJ. Which of course, strong convection would mean high QPF amounts. Not only that, the cold air mass will be immensely deep, colder it is, the higher the snow ratios will be.
More about the map, a mesoscale high pressure may build over the northeastern US overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. For area's east of the mountains, p-type will greatly depend on how much WAA will take place. But, overall, I think this system will bring mostly snow, and heavy snow at that.
View attachment 27002
Euro showing high QPF levels, this would be a tremendous amount of snow. Again, the reason of high QPF levels is due to the strong vertical motion in the upper level that will induce strong convection cause by the convergence of the polar and STJ.
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Anyone that has access to the upper-levels from the Euro, such as the jet stream winds, vort, please add. We need to see what's going on with the jet streams/vort on the Euro. Also, due the polar and STJ convergence, I think the storm system would be stronger than modeled on the Euro.
After spending time looking over data and coming up with thoughts I have came up with a prediction. This is not a forecast, it is a prediction which this prediction has a good chance at verifying. I have not backed down for days now. Keep in mind, I use a blend of models (not just one, or two, or three) to generate my predictions.
Using a blend of the Euro, GFS, CMC and the GEFS/EPS this is what I have came up with (map below) I think the Euro is 24 hours too slow with the storm system. So, instead of the low developing Wednesday into Thursday, I think the storm system will begin to develop Tuesday and track along the Gulf coast and out along the southeastern coast by dawn Wednesday. Why? because the polar and STJ is going to converge Tuesday afternoon/evening, at that point, the low pressure will develop quickly and start tracking along the fast moving jet streak over night Tuesday into Wednesday. At the time of the convergence, overrunning is possible Tuesday evening before the low kicks out and rides along the fast moving jet.
The low pressure system will likely be a fast mover, due to the convergence of the polar and sub-tropical jet, thus will increase jet streak winds high as 140kts. Even though, the low pressure system will likely be a fast mover, I do think it will bring tremendous amounts of snow totals because there will be strong convection in the upper-levels. The strong convection would be caused by, of course strong vertical motion due to the convergence of the polar and STJ. Which of course, strong convection would mean high QPF amounts. Not only that, the cold air mass will be immensely deep, colder it is, the higher the snow ratios will be.
More about the map, a mesoscale high pressure may build over the northeastern US overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. For area's east of the mountains, p-type will greatly depend on how much WAA will take place. But, overall, I think this system will bring mostly snow, and heavy snow at that.
View attachment 27002
Euro showing high QPF levels, this would be a tremendous amount of snow. Again, the reason of high QPF levels is due to the strong vertical motion in the upper level that will induce strong convection cause by the convergence of the polar and STJ.
View attachment 27003
View attachment 27004
Anyone that has access to the upper-levels from the Euro, such as the jet stream winds, vort, please add. We need to see what's going on with the jet streams/vort on the Euro. Also, due the polar and STJ convergence, I think the storm system would be stronger than modeled on the Euro.
In this case they would occur together, because of the polar and STJ convergence. That is one of the biggest factors that would trigger the snow storm.Usually, high QPF and deep cold, don’t occur together. That’s a reason the South hasn’t seen many 12” + snowstorms.
Video?In this case they would occur together, because of the polar and STJ convergence. That is one of the biggest factors that would trigger the snow storm.
I can't tell if you know the future, if you actually just have supreme confidence that this is going to happen, or what it is. But you really seem to really be all in on this. I tell you one thing, if this thing drops a massive snowstorm like you are saying, you become a legend. Lol but it's really hard to believe something like this is going to happen. Just very interested to see if the Euro does anything similar tonight that it did this afternoon.After spending time looking over data and coming up with thoughts I have came up with a prediction. This is not a forecast, it is a prediction which this prediction has a good chance at verifying. I have not backed down for days now. Keep in mind, I use a blend of models (not just one, or two, or three) to generate my predictions.
Using a blend of the Euro, GFS, CMC and the GEFS/EPS this is what I have came up with (map below) I think the Euro is 24 hours too slow with the storm system. So, instead of the low developing Wednesday into Thursday, I think the storm system will begin to develop Tuesday and track along the Gulf coast and out along the southeastern coast by dawn Wednesday. Why? because the polar and STJ is going to converge Tuesday afternoon/evening, at that point, the low pressure will develop quickly and start tracking along the fast moving jet streak over night Tuesday into Wednesday. At the time of the convergence, overrunning is possible Tuesday evening before the low kicks out and rides along the fast moving jet.
The low pressure system will likely be a fast mover, due to the convergence of the polar and sub-tropical jet, thus will increase jet streak winds high as 140kts. Even though, the low pressure system will likely be a fast mover, I do think it will bring tremendous amounts of snow totals because there will be strong convection in the upper-levels. The strong convection would be caused by, of course strong vertical motion due to the convergence of the polar and STJ. Which of course, strong convection would mean high QPF amounts. Not only that, the cold air mass will be immensely deep, colder it is, the higher the snow ratios will be.
More about the map, a mesoscale high pressure may build over the northeastern US overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. For area's east of the mountains, p-type will greatly depend on how much WAA will take place. But, overall, I think this system will bring mostly snow, and heavy snow at that.
View attachment 27002
Euro showing high QPF levels, this would be a tremendous amount of snow. Again, the reason of high QPF levels is due to the strong vertical motion in the upper level that will induce strong convection cause by the convergence of the polar and STJ.
View attachment 27003
View attachment 27004
Anyone that has access to the upper-levels from the Euro, such as the jet stream winds, vort, please add. We need to see what's going on with the jet streams/vort on the Euro. Also, due the polar and STJ convergence, I think the storm system would be stronger than modeled on the Euro.
Thanks for the big post! One thing I would point out is that if you're expecting heavy wet snow, you won't get high ratios. If you're expecting high ratios due to deep cold, the snow will be more powdery in nature. Might be good to incorporate that variable into your model. Might help with predicting or forecasting or estimating (not sure how we're using these terms now??) snow depth.In this case they would occur together, because of the polar and STJ convergence. That is one of the biggest factors that would trigger the snow storm.
Euro Definitely was an interesting run.
I hate to say it but 0z will show people how “Reliable” there favorite model EURO is??Euro Definitely was an interesting run.
It shows an ice storm for the southeast. Big CAD event.Please share
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He's talking about 12z.Please share
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It shows an ice storm for the southeast. Big CAD event.
There hasn't been another Euro run yet, he's talking about the 12z still.So it held on to the storm
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