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Pattern Nippy November

I am really disappointed in the fog forecast for this morning. RAH built it up like we were going to get some really bad fog. We need an undense fog advisory. In downtown Raleigh, visibility is at least 2-3 miles.
 
Looks like Sebastian will be short lived. Dry air to the west and some severe wind shear to the north of the center. Wonder how it will effect the big scheme of things. Perhaps Eric could chime in.


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Dang, look at how much colder is the 12Z GEFS days 9-16 vs recent runs. Many folks will likely like.
 
So to be specific, what do you guys think about Thanksgiving day? Different solutions from the major models. GFS would have a week CAD setup that would get central NC northwards into cooler air. Folks south of that would be "soupy". Canadian and euro (from last night) would be cooler with a nice cold frontal passage.
 
Burst of snow moving through south of Boone NC. 1mping report. Should be moderate rain to light rain East.
 
Very wet sticky snow too not the dry windy...bit of a change in weather patterns.
 
I'm thinking how much further east this strong storm system will go? I have my doubts that it will end up further east due to blocking over the western Atlantic. If this strong storm system does end up further east, snow showers and flurries may reach far south as Tennessee/Northern Georgia and the northwest slopes.

EPS, blocking is more broad over the western Atlantic, it extends into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Euro will likely have the low further west, but not that much further than the GFS.

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GEFS, weaker (and not as broad) blocking over the western Atlantic and over the Northeastern US. GFS would likely have the low slightly further east. gfs-ens_z500a_namer_32.png

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Pretty good model agreement between the GFS and Euro. Some things will change as the time frame approaches closer. GFS is more progressive with the moisture. Snow showers/flurries reaching far south as Tennessee/Western NC. Snow or not, it's going to become really windy behind this strong storm system and a quick shot at some winter temperatures before a warm-up as the next system kicks out around the 30th.
 
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This last frame of Gfs look interesting to my amateur eyes. Activity along the gulf coast and high pressure to the north. If those two line up just right we could see something interesting in some areas.


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