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Pattern Scorchtember

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
As much as I want to ----- about all of the heat that is being forecasted, I can’t because I currently have 73 on the car thermometer #Blessed
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Agreed! I'm convinced weather weenies like all of us are eternal pessimist... I've seen it before, some folks could be in the middle of a snowstorm and be complaining how it was going to torch with no more winter threats. Enjoy the moment my friends!
 
“Sep 18: A supercomputer failure at NCEP means 12Z NCEP models, including the GFS, are expected to be delayed”

Somebody hit the reset button guys! Hopefully that means we’re headed for glory on the 12z!


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metwannabe said:
Rainfall deficits across the SE are definitely getting serious (I know y'all don't need to see this map to know that Lol)

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My future brother in law said there has been 100+ calls into the Forestry Dept about wildfires. He worked a 100 acre fire and there was a 500 acre fire around Mobile. Getting serious in central AL.
 
metwannabe said:
Agreed! I'm convinced weather weenies like all of us are eternal pessimist... I've seen it before, some folks could be in the middle of a snowstorm and be complaining how it was going to torch with no more winter threats. Enjoy the moment my friends!
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Saves posts for mid 90s next week

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SD said:
Saves posts for mid 90s next week

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But at that time when temps are back in the mid 90's that's the time to complain Lol.... all I'm saying is don't let your disdain for what lies ahead steal your joy of the moment. (Hey that's pretty good right there)
 
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metwannabe said:
But at that time when temps are back in the mid 90's that's the time to complain Lol.... all I'm saying is don't let your disdain for what lies ahead still your joy of the moment. (Hey that's pretty good right there)
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Deep thoughts

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Spann also added this info this morning.
 

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From Maxar this morning:

"Summer continues in the Southeast, where numerous daily records have been broken of late. In Atlanta, daily records have been observed in five of the past eight days with highs in the mid-upper 90s, while record highs were observed in four of the past 10 days in Montgomery and three of the past six days in Macon. In fact, yesterday’s 103s in Montgomery and Macon were the hottest observed all summer. Heat relents after today across the region as high pressure arrives with easterly flow. However, another round of heat arrives next week. The 6-10 Day period features temperatures in the low 90s in Atlanta, Birmingham and Mobile, while mid-90s are forecast in Montgomery and Macon. The forecast is closest to the Euro EN but generally resides on the warm side of guidance. That said, there may still be hotter risk to the forecast given recent model performances in this pattern. Since the start of the month, max temperatures in Atlanta have averaged 5.0° warmer than the Euro EN and 9.5° warmer than the GFS EN in the 6-10 Day period, and the biases are significant in Birmingham (Euro EN by 2.2° and GFS EN by 6.9°), Montgomery (Euro EN by 3.7° and GFS EN by 7.0°), Macon (Euro EN by 4.4° and GFS EN by 9.3°) and Mobile (Euro EN by 4.2° and GFS EN by 6.4°) to name a few."
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This is not looking good for the SE: based on this ATL may easily get into the mid 90s for example!
 
It's 77*F and Mostly Cloudy in Lawrenceville vs. 91*F and Mostly Sunny in Newnan.
 
SD said:
Deep thoughts

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Jack Handy! 25 degrees cooler right now, than yesterday at this time and .36 inches of rain last night! Winning!
 
GaWx said:
From Maxar this morning:

"Summer continues in the Southeast, where numerous daily records have been broken of late. In Atlanta, daily records have been observed in five of the past eight days with highs in the mid-upper 90s, while record highs were observed in four of the past 10 days in Montgomery and three of the past six days in Macon. In fact, yesterday’s 103s in Montgomery and Macon were the hottest observed all summer. Heat relents after today across the region as high pressure arrives with easterly flow. However, another round of heat arrives next week. The 6-10 Day period features temperatures in the low 90s in Atlanta, Birmingham and Mobile, while mid-90s are forecast in Montgomery and Macon. The forecast is closest to the Euro EN but generally resides on the warm side of guidance. That said, there may still be hotter risk to the forecast given recent model performances in this pattern. Since the start of the month, max temperatures in Atlanta have averaged 5.0° warmer than the Euro EN and 9.5° warmer than the GFS EN in the 6-10 Day period, and the biases are significant in Birmingham (Euro EN by 2.2° and GFS EN by 6.9°), Montgomery (Euro EN by 3.7° and GFS EN by 7.0°), Macon (Euro EN by 4.4° and GFS EN by 9.3°) and Mobile (Euro EN by 4.2° and GFS EN by 6.4°) to name a few."
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This is not looking good for the SE: based on this ATL may easily get into the mid 90s for example!
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Further to the above, the raw 0Z Euro EN output has the following for highs at KATL during the 6-10 day period:

9/23: 89
9/24: 90
9/25: 90
9/26: 92
9/27: 90

This is a hotter run and could obviously be overdoing the heat, but for the not so fun of it, I'll take this raw output and add 5 F to negate the average KATL cool bias and come up with implied 0Z Euro EN KATL highs:

9/23: 94
9/24: 95
9/25: 95
9/26: 97
9/27: 95

And by the way, the raw output for 9/28-30 is still near 88, which would imply still low 90s for then. Not so fun times ahead!
 
Bad time for it to get drier especially around the blue ridge, we’ve seen what that’s caused in the past
 
This is what happens in a feast or famine regime. Flood or burn.


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SouthATLwx said:
The updated drought monitor tomorrow will be interesting.

(FWIW, it's based on weather data up until Tuesday).
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Itll probably not change. It seems very difficult to get it to change and im honestly starting to question its usability

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Arcc said:
My future brother in law said there has been 100+ calls into the Forestry Dept about wildfires. He worked a 100 acre fire and there was a 500 acre fire around Mobile. Getting serious in central AL.
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I was on the way from work yesterday at the Junction of 65 & 459 on the South side in traffic barely moving and a guy in front of me threw out a lit cigarette...I saw it go to the edge of the grass and I thought, "What an idiot"!!!!
 
Brent said:
well if its not gonna rain I wanna break some more heat and dry records

Its the only records we're gonna break
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Brent said:
well if its not gonna rain I wanna break some more heat and dry records

Its the only records we're gonna break
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I admit I'm a records guy too, but if It means fueling the global warming agenda, get those records as far away from me as possible.
Sorry about the political stuff.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Call me a bad person for wanting Jerry To make it here but at this point rain is really needed
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It’s the only way we can get widespread drought relief! Nothing rainy in sight for next 2 weeks plus! Dang, I sound like Shetley!??
 
SoutheastRidge said:
But is it really worth all the damage, destruction, and death that would go along with it ?
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Ofc ion want nun of that, but at this point nothing’s breaking this drought for a extended time, pop up thunderstorm SZN is over, strong ridging over us for a extended time, shallow troughs to our north that do nothing, at this point it’s either rain from a cane, or drought conditions/fire, you get problems either way except drought is a much slower process, but we’ve seen what it has done in the past
 
Not to mention there’s some really smart people that like to start fires on accident, which is escalated with a drought, alright I’m done bitching, tough day
 
I have been hearing the fire siren in my city go off two times today.
Because it is windy, and is low humidity and temps, could this be a fire threat?
 
SD said:
While we are ridging on the euro look what's going on in the north Atlantic.
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Ugly pattern in the western US/-PNA and that ugly ridge under Alaska, That’s some amazing blocking but it seems as if our luck can never be good, it’s either the pacific favorable for cool in the east but not the Atlantic, or Atlantic looks good but the pacific looks ugly
 
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