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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Surprised Boone didn’t close Appalachian State. They usually accept UNC evacuees from Wilm.
 
Best I can tell on the 24 hours maps looks like it makes LF on NC coast, almost same location as previous runs. So east early, end result for NC anyway about the same
 
metwannabe said:
Looking at it currently it may not be off with strength, really looking good now
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You have to think getting out over the gulf stream and the track away from land will only increase the intensity, but if it heads directly north bypassing SC a bit could spell additional trouble for SE Nc.
 
Henry2326 said:
Some short term models have to follow before I buy into a Euro short term again....i followed like sheep with Florence and we know how that ended.....
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You mean like this one?

hmon_mslp_wind_05L_5.png


In actuality I agree with you to an extent, it’s possible it restrengthens, but on the other hand these models usually fail in this type of setup.
 
Arcc said:
You mean like this one?

hmon_mslp_wind_05L_5.png


In actuality I agree with you to an extent, it’s possible it restrengthens, but on the other hand these models usually fail in this type of setup.
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Yep....we have short term models that are lock step at the moment and then a euro that's not - in either track or intensity. It gets really difficult to figure out what to believe.....
 
Now the interesting thing, does it get any closer to 80W? This Euro run never does and in fact may actually stay just east of it's current position, I know we're talking only a few miles but still.

1567620637553.png
 
Thats a more healthy hurricane. It seems the west movement has stopped though which you would think lessens the chance of landfall.

20192471810_GOES16-ABI-FL-11-AL052019-2000x2000.jpg
 
metwannabe said:
Now the interesting thing, does it get any closer to 80W? This Euro run never does and in fact may actually stay just east of it's current position, I know we're talking only a few miles but still.

View attachment 23134
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The hour 6 of this 12Z Euro run is maybe a hair at most east of actual position. So, it is a very good match.
 
Storm has yet to cross 80w and the new Euro if correct, would never cross 80w.
 
the 12z HWRF has it past 80w by 21z. we shall see. (5pm est i think)

latest hrrr on tt looks to stay east of 80w so far also.
 
Shawn said:
Storm has yet to cross 80w and the new Euro if correct, would never cross 80w.
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It would seem to me that moving more west means it moves less north, so less west means more north? More north means it gains latitude quicker and that at least to me would increase the likely hood of as SC/NC border landfall similar to the 3kNAM as it would let the storm get farther north before the ridge breaks down letting it make the more NE to ENE turn....
 
Downeastnc said:
It would seem to me that moving more west means it moves less north, so less west means more north? More north means it gains latitude quicker and that at least to me would increase the likely hood of as SC/NC border landfall similar to the 3kNAM as it would let the storm get farther north before the ridge breaks down letting it make the more NE to ENE turn....
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Yeah, I think what might be more important now is how east it goes versus north.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Saw this on the Facebook page for my son's school. o_O

For information about whether schools will be closed or delayed due to the hurricane, please watch the news, check our website or follow WCPSS on Twitter. They will have the word out before the school is even notified. Our phone lines are being jammed with calls and we don't have an answer.
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Wake County Schools closed tomorrow.
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 79.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
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Recon just found an extrap pressure of 960.5, was in the mid 960s earlier this morning. Core is also heating up and some evidence of drying aloft in the eye. Also flight level winds of 110kts in the SE quad.
 
It has been said that a stronger storm would go NE more so than a weaker storm. So the fact it’s strengthening some , may keep it from the more NW track and save the coast from an actual landfall
 
New HRRR is well off the coast of SC with the center. Things are hopefully lookup up for a lot of people. might even miss nc coasts/obx the way the last frames are starting to look
 
Per satellite/radar, I've seen no evidence that the center has made it to or is about to reach as far west as 80.0W. The longer it holds off 80.0W, the better for at least lower SC. It was at 79.8 W at 3 PM. I don't think it has any west component of motion currently.
 
GaWx said:
Per satellite/radar, I've seen no evidence that the center has made it to or is about to reach as far west as 80.0W. The longer it holds off 80.0W, the better for at least lower SC. It was at 79.8 W at 3 PM. I don't think it has any west component of motion currently.
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Correct, if anything seeing much more Northward motion now. Glad to see at least so far for GA/Southern SC, it wasn't just a "wobble".
 
Information for CHS folks - if until 5pm today or after the storm you need a generator, gas cans, water, tarps, extension cords, etc I was just in Home Depot at US17 and Six Mile in Mt Pleasant and they are loaded. Many places are sold out but this particular HD just got a truck in this afternoon.

Current conditions here it's been overcast with intermittent light rain since the first squall this morning at 8am. Winds are 3, Gusting to 7 ENE
 
SCWXGuy said:
Information for CHS folks - if until 5pm today or after the storm you need a generator, gas cans, water, tarps, extension cords, etc I was just in Home Depot at US17 and Six Mile in Mt Pleasant and they are loaded. Many places are sold out but this particular HD just got a truck in this afternoon.

Current conditions here it's been overcast with intermittent light rain since the first squall this morning at 8am. Winds are 3, Gusting to 7 ENE
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Is the airport in a more windy spot? I saw where it reported a 30 mph gust already at 13:56. Mt Pleasant even reported 23 mph.
 
3k nam setting up areas of precipitation. Maybe hinting some strong outer bands tomorrow morning over Central NC. FWIW nam faster and further east.nam-nc-refc-7663200.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
3k nam setting up areas of precipitation. Maybe hinting some strong outer bands tomorrow morning over Central NC. FWIW nam faster and further east.View attachment 23144
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Well we worried about the turn when he was heading towards Florida now we worry about the turn heading towards NC. As I've said angle of approach will be huge. Will it be NNE more through the sounds or NE more along the capes.....big question and big differences for eastern NC.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Is the airport in a more windy spot? I saw where it reported a 30 mph gust already at 13:56. Mt Pleasant even reported 23 mph.
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The airport is a bit inland, but their official station is sited in an open area so I imagine winds would be recorded a bit higher there than in the residential neighborhoods that are closer to the coast. My PWS in the backyard is 4 miles from the ocean and has the anemometer on my chimney 2 stories up, but I am surrounded by other houses and trees so it is a bit "protected." To get a true sense of the winds I would recommend looking at WU stations on Isle of Palms and Sullivan's Island on the ocean front. I've seen gusts over 50 and sustained in the high 20s and low 30s there.
 
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