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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Euro is either a big bust. Or either still the king. But really I thought ever since the center went north of Porto Rico a out to sea track was a possibility


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What a change in the models the last 24 hours. Yesterday we were looking at Dorian hitting Florida and going across into the Gulf, and tonight the models continue to trend east and Dorian might go out to sea.
 
pcbjr said:
Y'all should really watch Levi's video posted above (link here also) ...
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Yes please watch
But for the people who aren’t gonna watch he pretty much explains the even the slightest changes in ridging could easily change the track and that nobody knows where this will go
 
Brick Tamland said:
What a change in the models the last 24 hours. Yesterday we were looking at Dorian hitting Florida and going across into the Gulf, and tonight the models continue to trend east and Dorian might go out to sea.
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Brick,
There are so many subtleties; the models are just models and are individually having a hard time dealing with some very little things ... been that way for days; probably real consensus in 36 but until then, it's still wait and watch, I'm afraid ... Phil
 
pcbjr said:
Y'all should really watch Levi's video posted above (link here also) ...
Click to expand...


The biggest takeaway of what he said in this video was how forecasting a hurricane landfall at day 4-5 leads has on average a 200 mile error. I already knew that, but it's worth remembering. That's why my confidence in an OTS scenario is just as low as any other scenario at this point. So many moving parts causing so many subtle changes.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
The biggest takeaway of what he said in this video was how forecasting a hurricane landfall at day 4-5 leads has on average a 200 mile error. I already knew that, but it's worth remembering. That's why my confidence in an OTS scenario is just as low as any other scenario at this point. So many moving parts causing so many subtle changes.
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Been saying that since my 1st in 1964 ...
 
Correct me if I’m wrong but Katrina was supposed to be a Big Bend Hurricane and quickly became a MS/LA issue so I still got this funny feeling to not count out the Panhandle/areas my way, still so much that could change in just a few days. Like I said last night, while models are a good guideline, a few days ago it had Dorian being dead by no means is any solution gaining or losing momentum.
 
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