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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

WOAH HOLD UP HERE! If this is accurate then that would mean we get a cat 5 tonight.
recon_NOAA2-2105A-DORIAN_dropsonde12_20190831-0000.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
What's scarier is that the eye appears to still be shrinking, and recon seems to show no signs of any new or secondary eyewalls that I can see, so it's likely those winds would mix down.
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I wouldn't worry too much about it strengthening where it's at now. Let it rock. By the time it gets close to the coast, it will be slowing and will likely not be nearly as strong as it can get right now. That said, it is impressive at this time.
 
ForsythSnow said:
What's scarier is that the eye appears to still be shrinking, and recon seems to show no signs of any new or secondary eyewalls that I can see, so it's likely those winds would mix down.
Click to expand...
which is a factor that past models don't reflect ... so much is yet to be ingested and figured out ... remember, consensus once was that the earth is flat
 
Rain Cold said:
I wouldn't worry too much about it strengthening where it's at now. Let it rock. By the time it gets close to the coast, it will be slowing and will likely not be nearly as strong as it can get right now. That said, it is impressive at this time.
Click to expand...
slowing looks like a given; weaker ... that is still in the jury room ...
 
Sleet City USA said:
So what would they measure the wind as? 131kt?
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No, they would go with the winds on the lowest part of that chart, so 116 knots. However, if the pressure in the center continues to fall, those winds would fall down to the surface. In other words, a 5 to 10 mb drop would put those winds on the surface in that position.
 
197
URNT15 KWBC 310113
NOAA2 2105A DORIAN HDOB 27 20190831
010330 2512N 07108W 7498 02337 9809 +147 //// 252095 098 093 006 01
010400 2514N 07108W 7513 02264 9734 +156 +145 249109 114 105 001 00
010430 2516N 07108W 7470 02206 9628 +160 +157 250107 121 108 024 00
010500 2519N 07108W 7499 02117 9540 +185 +157 245057 070 109 019 03
010530 2521N 07109W 7511 02091 9497 +220 +130 229022 030 063 002 03
010600 2522N 07110W 7520 02071 9485 +227 +118 207010 013 031 000 00
010630 2524N 07111W 7522 02057 9471 +234 +111 167006 008 030 000 03
010700 2526N 07111W 7513 02062 9470 +224 +122 106026 044 048 002 00
010730 2529N 07111W 7545 02052 9522 +185 +150 093077 093 111 004 00
010800 2530N 07111W 7523 02152 9623 +152 //// 090124 129 119 037 01
010830 2532N 07111W 7542 02215 9719 +146 //// 093122 126 118 014 01
010900 2534N 07111W 7517 02296 9787 +140 //// 095118 121 106 016 01
010930 2536N 07111W 7518 02338 9836 +141 //// 097109 110 102 023 01
011000 2538N 07111W 7499 02393 9878 +137 //// 097103 105 094 015 01
011030 2540N 07111W 7529 02392 9915 +137 //// 098100 101 088 019 01
011100 2542N 07111W 7497 02451 9941 +131 //// 097098 102 082 022 01
011130 2544N 07111W 7521 02446 9962 +136 +136 097091 093 076 013 00
011200 2546N 07111W 7527 02456 9981 +137 +135 095082 084 071 007 00
011230 2548N 07111W 7509 02489 9997 +136 +125 094077 078 069 004 00
011300 2550N 07111W 7497 02511 0001 +145 +107 092075 076 067 004 00
SFMR winds are up to 119 knots.
 
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