Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[Snowfan]

788
URNT15 KWBC 310003
NOAA2 2105A DORIAN HDOB 20 20190830
235330 2540N 07026W 7515 02530 0065 +130 +097 136064 065 052 001 00
235400 2539N 07028W 7509 02536 0064 +124 +100 134062 064 052 000 00
235430 2538N 07030W 7512 02526 0056 +122 +114 136060 062 052 003 00
235500 2537N 07032W 7514 02516 0049 +122 +115 140067 068 058 001 00
235530 2536N 07034W 7516 02500 0032 +131 +103 140073 075 060 001 00
235600 2535N 07036W 7516 02492 0023 +128 +100 139077 077 060 007 00
235630 2534N 07038W 7527 02469 0009 +128 +122 140080 082 064 010 00
235700 2533N 07040W 7519 02464 9993 +130 +111 139087 088 068 006 00
235730 2532N 07042W 7519 02445 9975 +127 +121 136090 092 073 013 00
235800 2531N 07044W 7518 02426 9954 +124 //// 131097 100 078 031 01
235830 2530N 07046W 7497 02420 9917 +125 //// 136100 103 085 038 01
235900 2529N 07048W 7491 02398 9873 +138 //// 140100 104 094 012 01
235930 2528N 07050W 7521 02326 9832 +140 //// 139109 112 103 007 01
000000 2527N 07052W 7485 02313 9772 +141 //// 137115 118 107 012 01
000030 2526N 07054W 7486 02236 9689 +142 //// 136122 125 114 015 01
000100 2525N 07056W 7491 02155 9583 +164 +155 132091 111 114 017 00
000130 2524N 07058W 7526 02079 9510 +214 +147 114045 055 112 027 03
000200 2522N 07100W 7529 02065 9495 +222 +120 102021 028 /// /// 03
000230 2520N 07100W 7528 02071 9496 +227 +106 094005 009 026 000 03
000300 2518N 07100W 7501 02105 9503 +223 +110 235007 009 025 000 03
Winds are up to 114 knots.

 

[mrdaddyman]

This thing really hits the brakes on the 18Z Euro:

 

[Brick Tamland]

Already a cat 4 and still about 4 days from even being close to land. Unreal.

 

[Henry2326]

Why oh why do we keep discounting the HWRF?!? Every time. It tries to tell us....

 

[Brick Tamland]

HWRF is absolutely clutch inside 12-24 hours. Even though it's a short-range forecast, you have to be extremely impressed w/ how well this model forecast virtually to a T this period of very rapid intensification that's still ongoing w/ Dorian.

So how well does it do with the track? And where does it show Dorian going in the latest run?

 

[Snowfan]

AL, 05, 2019083100, , BEST, 0, 253N, 710W, 115, 950, HU

Will be upgraded to Category 4 at 11 PM.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Why oh why do we keep discounting the HWRF?!? Every time. It tries to tell us....

The HWRF and sometimes the HMON do well with monster storms. The HMON did well a few times with predicting ERCs I believe.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Will be upgraded to Category 4 at 11 PM.

Make that now. Special advisory just issued for 130 mph.

 

[Snowfan]

000
WTNT65 KNHC 310027
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
830 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...DORIAN STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that Dorian has
strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with
maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (215 km/h). This increase in
intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued at 1100 pm EDT
(0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 71.0W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

 

[Henry2326]

The HWRF and sometimes the HMON do well with monster storms. The HMON did well a few times with predicting ERCs I believe.

Timing is everything....maybe we get lucky with an ERC in approach to land...

 

[Metwannabe]

This thing really hits the brakes on the 18Z Euro:

View attachment 22520

With the slight turn NW at the end of the run

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[pcbjr]

Nowhere near intended to prog anything, but these are worth filtering into the thought process ...

https://icons.wxug.com/data/images/blogs/atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif

 

[Raine1963]

You guys think we will get to Cat 5

 

[Jessy89]

You guys think we will get to Cat 5

Yes at least briefly I mean what’s stopping it from making it to cat 5?


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[$alt]

Yes at least briefly I mean what’s stopping it from making it to cat 5?


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A little bit of shear in various levels of the atmosphere.

 

[Jessy89]

It’s important to take note models like HWRF have been the most accurate on strength so far. The global shaven team been anywhere close as far as strength goes.


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[Brent]

You guys think we will get to Cat 5

Its got days to try so i think it'll definitely get close

 

[SD]

Mods feel free to remove this question but assuming it takes the track going up the coast, would there be any major impacts in Western NC/SC?

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Not really. Some rain and a breeze

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[BirdManDoomW]

Yes at least briefly I mean what’s stopping it from making it to cat 5?
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Florida, upwelling during a stall, unexpected shear, EWRC and plenty more. Tomorrow doesn’t look as ideal tomorrow for RI. But looks better Sunday/Monday.

 

[Ollie Williams]

most 00z models don't even make landfall.