Discussion:
After 48 hours, the
global models show an erosion of the western portion of the ridge,
which is expected to cause the steering currents to collapse and the
hurricane to slow down considerably by day 3. Later in the period,
the models have again trended to a more significant weakness in the
ridge which allows Dorian to turn northwestward, then northward
near the east coast of Florida. Although the deterministic
versions of the global models have trended northeastward again, the
GFS and UKMET ensemble means are farther to the left. The
updated NHC track forecast has been nudged northeastward and lies
between the multi-model consensus aids and the aforementioned
ensemble means. Although the official forecast track has been
nudged northeastward to near the east coast of Florida the risk of
significant impacts over much of the Florida peninsula remains high.
