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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...30.4N 79.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
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@GaWx , don't look now but satellite shows her veering west. lets see if she makes it!
 
Henry2326 said:
Was just watching TWC....saw the eye cross over 80....they just showed it again
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Looking at the COD radar and the satellite loop from Tropical Tidbits it seems the center hasn't crossed 80W yet. It has wobbled close or maybe bounced off it but haven't seen a cross over.
 
3K still a smack down for SC/NC....verbatim MBY has 75-80 knt gust for 6 hrs.....even if I knock 10-15 knts off those values it still a 60-70 mph event here.....Charleston the Norfolk get hurricane force winds, as well as all of central and NE SC and eastern NC.....just shows how important the track is 75 miles SE of that track and this is a coastal only event.
 
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Still moving NNW, though. Until it starts to move more east, SC and NC are not out of the woods.
 
Shawn said:
@GaWx , don't look now but satellite shows her veering west. lets see if she makes it!
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Shawn, I'm honestly not seeing it veer west yet, but it will be interesting to see what the NHC 5 PM location shows. Anyway, i'm so much more relaxed vs how I was early last evening.
 
I’m not seeing any movement west, the eye was unsymmetrical while rotating causing an illusion that it was crossing 80, although I may be wrong.
 
Cadi40 said:
I was simply telling you it hasn’t crossed yet. I don’t know why you would be rooting for it to anyways.
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I'm not rooting for it.....wrong info doesn't do any one any good but lull people into false security. There is an entire population in Charleston that believes no impacts....I know them personally. There is enough time for them to get out if we have some real clarity to what it's doing....

A very good friend of mine is sitting in MT. Pleasant because all the neighbors are staying. They live a mile from the marshes. She's a really smart lady but channel 5 Bill Walsh convinced her last night that the risk was low....I give her the model info twice a day, but can't convince her.

For the record, I evacuated....I'm not risking my life dependent on whether or not a storm crosses 80 in the eleventh hour....

It doesn't matter what I think or want....mother nature will do as she likes!
 
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For NC/SC if it starts east movement before 32N, like the OP euro, it will stay offshore. If it starts curving after then several EPS members make landfall or the eye hugs the coast.

30FE8B6D-9517-460C-94BB-7EF90D916C78.jpeg
 
Some of the CAMs and NAMs are placing the best 700mb FGEN along or just east of US1. It'll be interesting to see if that continues and we start to see the totals on the western edge creep up with an even sharper gradient

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...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS THAT DORIAN HAS STRENGTHENED A
LITTLE...
...EYE NOW EAST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...30.6N 79.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES
 
Dorian still east of 80w, while the 12zHWRF had her crossing 80w by now... and 20z HRRR continues to keep her further offshore the SC coast. the 18z HRRR was basically a landfall miss for everyone it seems.
 
Rain Cold said:
I really find it hard to believe that there's something more magical about 80 W than 79.999 W.
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Like Shawn said, 80.0 just happens to be an easy benchmark to assess how model guidance is doing. Every 0.1 of a degree is 7 miles and every 7 miles can make a significant difference in what GA and lower SC is likely to experience. I addition to SAV, I’m closely following CHS for some folks and am reporting to them.
The 5PM NHC advisory, unlike the last one, doesn’t make it to 80.0 but rather stays on 79.8.
 
Shawn said:
For us down here it matters, and guidance bringing her in to GA through Charleston type areas had her crossing it.
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Yeah, every mile makes a diff in terms of impacts. I guess what I'm thinking is that I don't see a degree of so of longitude mattering in terms of whether or not it eventually makes landfall somewhere. But I do agree, for yall's weather, you want to see it stop moving west asap.
 
Rain Cold said:
I really find it hard to believe that there's something more magical about 80 W than 79.999 W.
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For real. And for us I think it matters more if it moves more east or more north when it does start to move north.
 
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