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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Shawn said:
For us down here it matters, and guidance bringing her in to GA through Charleston type areas had her crossing it.
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I agree that we have models that demonstrate crossing 80 and the result. But we don't have models that isolate the variations to only that component nor every decimal forward and back, so we don't truly know if it's 80 on the nose or some other component in combination that is causing it.......no big deal. Just explaining my response.
 
Whatever county Apex is in, schools out tomorrow! Lol
 
There is a final lobe of vorticity associated with the incoming trough that acts to kick the system to the NE. Any delay of the trough or increased speed of Dorian would likely lead to a more NW track and obviously the opposites lead to a farther east track. Given we are 20 hours away from this process really getting underway its doubtful that you get more than a 25 mile bump in either direction but in some places that's going to be meaningful.

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Dropsonde in NW eyewall measured 145kt winds at the 897mb level. First time I’ve seen that since it was in the Bahamas. Oh and extrap pressure is crashing down about 4-5 more mb this pass to 953mb.

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FV3 and 12k NAM both shift the best divergence aloft east and northeast of the central part of NC as early as 18z tomorrow which means we could see areas of rain through mid afternoon then a lull. After that we are waiting on the moisture associated with the core of the storm along with a potential fgen band to setup on the northwest and west side of the system. There is likely to be a pretty sharp gradient in rain totals somewhere between I95 and US1 with areas west of the gradient less than 1 inch and areas just a few dozen miles east seeing 2.5-3+

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Broken024 said:
Thank you for your wisdom
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BIG FROSTY said:

Tim Buckley
@TimBuckleyWX
·
2h

This is our in-house computer model. Notice how hardly any falls in the Triad, but over 4" falls in Raleigh. This is just one model's idea of what could happen. If bands shift west, we could get a few inches of rain. If not, we get very little.

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I like the Buckley model. I need some rain although it does mess up my ots call from the beginning.
 
As for wind I think a general 35-45 would be the gust potential around this area. There are some caveats as far as the storm ending up a little farther NW, mixing, and heavier than expected precipitation enhancing gusts a bit. I will say the NAM products do have to give you a little concern with both the 3k and 12k backing the 64kt+ 850s up into the triangle. Right now they are the most extreme but something to watch. I do believe though that areas along and east of 95 might have a fairly bumpy late Thursday through Friday morning where you really get the combination of heavy precip, closer track, stronger 850s. Might see some 60-70 type gusts in that region

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18Z HWRF and HMON still in lock step. Both moved slightly east with eyewall grazing coast slightly north of Charleston and SC landfall a little bit further. 955 and 959 respectively for HWRF and HMON. Timing a little slower to 2:00 pm same time as high tide.....
 
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18Z HWRRF and HMON both have the 00Z position nailed. HMON Both hit a wall at the coast and start NE scraping the coast.
 
So when should we watch for the turn NE, and when are we in trouble for landfall if it doesn't turn by a certain time or spot?
 
Brick Tamland said:
So when should we watch for the turn NE, and when are we in trouble for landfall if it doesn't turn by a certain time or spot?
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HMON hit the breaks with the eye right over the coast and HWRF stopped a bit off shore. HWRF still made LF at Cape Fear and OBX. so, ideally it takes a hard right well off shore.
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 79.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.31 INCHES
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The 80 doesn't matter as much for NC it has slowly moved NNW this afternoon. The latitude gain is more of the concern for NC. The most dangerous solution is the NAM. But the way it gets there is a bit wobbly. Obviously if it gets to 32 degrees latitude that's going to be tough to miss land, but it seems like there's multiple avenues to landfall somewhere in NC. 
 

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Brick Tamland said:
So when should we watch for the turn NE, and when are we in trouble for landfall if it doesn't turn by a certain time or spot?
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Models have it turning between 12 and 18z tomorrow. That becomes problematic for the Charleston area. Taking the current speed and direction a turn at 12z given the current 8mph heading would put the center 34 miles offshore, if it is delayed until 18z it would landfall and be just inland. Now there will likely be some wobbles along three way and maybe a tendency to go just east of north later in the overnight

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