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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Noon NHC official position was 30.0N, 79.7W.

Here are NHC positions over the last 6 hour interval:

6 AM: 29.2N, 79.5W
7 AM: 29.4N, 79.5W
8 AM: 29.5N, 79.6W
9 AM: 29.6N, 79.6W
10 AM: 29.7N, 79.6W
11 AM: 29.8 N, 79.7W
Noon: 30.0N, 79.7W

Will it make it to 80.0W? Any guesses?
 
10-20 mile changes in track are noise at 48 hrs.....the GFS has been right on or offshore for a day now, the ICON ran east but it did that last night and came back west at 06Z.....there is still obviously a chance this thing trends east and misses everyone but the OBX or even them.....the same can be said for the more inland 3kNAM like track......anyone thinking these little changes run to run mean any given area is in the clear ( well SC/NCwise ) is foolish.....
 
GaWx said:
Noon NHC official position was 30.0N, 79.7W.

Here are NHC positions over the last 6 hour interval:

6 AM: 29.2N, 79.5W
7 AM: 29.4N, 79.5W
8 AM: 29.5N, 79.6W
9 AM: 29.6N, 79.6W
10 AM: 29.7N, 79.6W
11 AM: 29.8 N, 79.7W
Noon: 30.0N, 79.7W

Will it make it to 80.0W? Any guesses?
Click to expand...
Very difficult to tell with IR sat image but almost looks like a slight NW wobble, I'll bite.... I say it makes it to 80W
 
This is a considerable jump up on the NHC's noon rainfall forecast
152824WPCQPF_sm.gif
 
GaWx said:
Noon NHC official position was 30.0N, 79.7W.

Here are NHC positions over the last 6 hour interval:

6 AM: 29.2N, 79.5W
7 AM: 29.4N, 79.5W
8 AM: 29.5N, 79.6W
9 AM: 29.6N, 79.6W
10 AM: 29.7N, 79.6W
11 AM: 29.8 N, 79.7W
Noon: 30.0N, 79.7W

Will it make it to 80.0W? Any guesses?
Click to expand...
I guess yes
 
metwannabe said:
Forget the wobbles this thing is trying to wrap deep convection all the away around (looking more symmetrical), one last gasp before shear becomes a problem...
Click to expand...
Not surprised....it's done this over and over again....timing is of the essence
 
Downeastnc said:
10-20 mile changes in track are noise at 48 hrs.....the GFS has been right on or offshore for a day now, the ICON ran east but it did that last night and came back west at 06Z.....there is still obviously a chance this thing trends east and misses everyone but the OBX or even them.....the same can be said for the more inland 3kNAM like track......anyone thinking these little changes run to run mean any given area is in the clear ( well SC/NCwise ) is foolish.....
Click to expand...
Tell that to the local media and public....they've been lulled into a false sense of security....
 
12z HMON approach to Charleston and coastline landfall....came a bit east from last run. Locked in with 06z HWRF....and so far 12z.....landfall Charleston. Waiting on a couple more frames.
HIGH TIDE AT 2:00 PM.... NOT GOOD

hmon_mslp_uv850_05L_fh27-33.gif
 
Last edited:
12z HWRF....it so lock step with HMON that I looked back to see if I was originally on the right model. HWRF lowest intensity is 959 and is that on approach....and is slightly later....closer to HIGH TIDE.


hwrf_mslp_uv850_05L_fh24-36.gif
 
HWRF has been locked in for past 7-8 runs on what was the 15z position.

hwrf_ref_05L_fh3_trend.gif
 
Another thing to keep in mind is these big storms like this with large eyes do not see their wind speeds slow down as fast due to land interaction and in fact the center's often tighten up a bit and sometimes even see pressure drop that help it hold its wind field even longer.....Irene was a good example of this....she actually got more organized as she crossed the coast into the Pamlico sound....
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 79.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
Yeah I think Dorian looks pretty good on IR and the visible satellite right now, to me it looks like he's moving NW but my winds are out of the north so I could just be mesmerized by a wobble.
 
12Z Euro very similar to the 6Z/east of 0Z. Definitely looking good as far as a major threat here in GA thank goodness thought that doesn't mean it won't be stormy.
 
So far Euro well east of it's 0z run still on a N heading though so probably still close to the coast
edit: looks to be turning @24, this one may staff offshore
 
metwannabe said:
So far Euro well east of it's 0z run still on a N heading though so probably still close to the coast
edit: looks to be turning @24, this one may staff offshore
Click to expand...

It does stay offshore on 12Z Euro. Edit: or a close scrape in part of NC
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 79.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
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