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Brick Tamland
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
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Downeastnc
Member
I would knock 10-20 mph off those numbers honestly that would probably be more accurate of what would actually happen....still on that track the Triangle gets solid TS gust...
Henry2326
Member
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019
Satellite imagery indicates that the cloud tops in the eyewall of
Dorian have cooled significantly during the past few hours, with the
eye becoming better defined in NOAA Doppler radar data. However,
just-received reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft show that the hurricane has changed little in intensity,
with maximum winds remaining near 90 kt and the central pressure
near 964 mb. The aircraft data show that hurricane-force winds are
roughly 50 n mi offshore of the northeastern Florida peninsula,
while surface observations show that tropical-storm conditions are
affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Florida.
The initial motion is now 335/8. Dorian is moving around the
western end of the subtropical ridge, and it should recurve
northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during
the next 24-48 h. This motion should bring the center of Dorian
near or over the coast of North Carolina during the 36-48 h period.
After that time, the cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward
into the Atlantic toward the Canadian Maritimes, with a quick
northeastward motion continuing for the remainder of the cyclone's
life. The track guidance is very tightly clustered, and the new
forecast track, which has only minor changes from the previous
forecast, lies in the center of the guidance envelope near the
consensus models. It should be noted that the track is close to and
almost parallel to the coast of the southeastern United State, and
any deviation to the left of the track could bring the center
onshore anywhere in the Carolinas.
Dorian is expected to remain in an environment of light to moderate
vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures during the
next 48 h. As a result, the hurricane is expected to maintain
Category 2 intensity as it passes near the southeastern United
States coast. After 48 h, increasing shear and dry air entrainment
should cause a weakening trend. Extratropical transition should
begin near the 72 h time, and the cyclone is forecast to become a
hurricane-force extratropical low by 96 h near or over Nova Scotia
and Newfoundland.
Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously
close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from northeast
Florida to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility
of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and life-
threatening storm surges from this hurricane.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019
Satellite imagery indicates that the cloud tops in the eyewall of
Dorian have cooled significantly during the past few hours, with the
eye becoming better defined in NOAA Doppler radar data. However,
just-received reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft show that the hurricane has changed little in intensity,
with maximum winds remaining near 90 kt and the central pressure
near 964 mb. The aircraft data show that hurricane-force winds are
roughly 50 n mi offshore of the northeastern Florida peninsula,
while surface observations show that tropical-storm conditions are
affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Florida.
The initial motion is now 335/8. Dorian is moving around the
western end of the subtropical ridge, and it should recurve
northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during
the next 24-48 h. This motion should bring the center of Dorian
near or over the coast of North Carolina during the 36-48 h period.
After that time, the cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward
into the Atlantic toward the Canadian Maritimes, with a quick
northeastward motion continuing for the remainder of the cyclone's
life. The track guidance is very tightly clustered, and the new
forecast track, which has only minor changes from the previous
forecast, lies in the center of the guidance envelope near the
consensus models. It should be noted that the track is close to and
almost parallel to the coast of the southeastern United State, and
any deviation to the left of the track could bring the center
onshore anywhere in the Carolinas.
Dorian is expected to remain in an environment of light to moderate
vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures during the
next 48 h. As a result, the hurricane is expected to maintain
Category 2 intensity as it passes near the southeastern United
States coast. After 48 h, increasing shear and dry air entrainment
should cause a weakening trend. Extratropical transition should
begin near the 72 h time, and the cyclone is forecast to become a
hurricane-force extratropical low by 96 h near or over Nova Scotia
and Newfoundland.
Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously
close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from northeast
Florida to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility
of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and life-
threatening storm surges from this hurricane.
Henry2326
Member
12z Icon landfall NC....
blueheronNC
Member
Wake County was just added to the Tropical Storm Warning. Probably a good move given the expanded wind field along with the NAM which shows similar conditions for the eastern part of Wake and Johnston County (which was already warned).
Henry2326
Member
Maybe my eyes are merging the lines all together because I've looked at these so much, but splitting hairs anyway on 12z Nam....a problem.
Notice the NHC states a landfall in NC, but doesn't for SC. I interpreted the rest of their message as "too close to call".
RollTide18
Member
I was on the West side of Irma and it wasn’t all that pretty.
It's the NAM it always swings for the fences. I wouldn't worry too much about winds that high here...yet.
Yeah, the winds don't tend to make it to far inland to us...except for the occasional 30mph gust.
The Euro also tends to be deceivingly too high with the wind maps that are often circulated (ask @Tarheel1) though some of those may be higher due to being well off the ground.
14Z HRRR 957 MB moving north 8Z thursday morning. So apparently a stronger storm
Stormsfury
Member
10m winds 33ft above ground. Wind measurements usually taken about 14ft or so at observation points. Amazing how much of a difference that can make sometimes
blueheronNC
Member
12z GFS wide right. Wow.
This is true but the issue last year with Florence and those projected winds that he is always using to discount the Euro's wind projections was an entirely different setup then Dorian. I'd wager all models are overdoing the winds to some degree on the western side and almost all maps that get shared are peak wind gust, with that said I've experienced some serious winds on the west side of transitioning TC's in my life. At this latitude sometimes the dynamics are just different. I'm just stating that you can't always discount a model output based on it's other failures in a scenario that was entirely different..
And as soon as the NWS extends TS warnings and Flood watches westward, everything shifts east Lol.... I don't even get rain on that GFS run
blueheronNC
Member
GFS with a grand total of 0.10" for Wake County. Is this a snowstorm?
Henry2326
Member
We have been exceptionally lucky in Charleston general area in the past 4 years. Flooding downtown, but
It really only changed the orientation of the storm through SC....rather than vertical, the eye is horizontal.....
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Should we give more weight to the short range models now?
SnowNotHappen
Member
Long range models not gonna handle the storm too good right now, as it approaches the Carolinas.
SnowNotHappen
Member
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Brick Tamland
Guest
That is what I was wondering. Short range models look like SC and NC are still in the cross-hairs.
It isn't that dramatic a shift, but it is SE of its recent runs and has no full actual landfall in the Carolinas per my provider's maps. I wonder if it is adjusting to the actual 12Z position.
I'd give more weight to what I'm seeing on satellite, radar and recon pos points..... seriously this isn't intended to sound sarcastic. We just have to watch those points and watch for trends in movement
Right... these shifts, I would say, are small relatively speaking just huge from a localized impact standpoint.
Even with the eastward wobbles that is getting very close to 80W, only take a wobble or two back NW to get it there....
Great trends may have been foolishly to include Raleigh in a Warning now
Again some very deep convection firing on the SW side, don't be surprised to see a slight pull/tug/wobble NW due to that in the short term...
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Foolish to say that so soon.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Saw this on the Facebook page for my son's school. 
For information about whether schools will be closed or delayed due to the hurricane, please watch the news, check our website or follow WCPSS on Twitter. They will have the word out before the school is even notified. Our phone lines are being jammed with calls and we don't have an answer.
For information about whether schools will be closed or delayed due to the hurricane, please watch the news, check our website or follow WCPSS on Twitter. They will have the word out before the school is even notified. Our phone lines are being jammed with calls and we don't have an answer.
I swear it looks like Dorian is trying to tighten up that eye a little bit
Freaking battle of the ridges right there....
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Brick Tamland
Guest
I don't see it going by without making landfall somewhere in NC, or at least skirting the coast. Euro might have went east now, but it and all the models were also going farther west with each run yesterday. And the short range models are showing it getting to NC, too.
Stormsfury
Member
If I was to take a guess right now before RECON gets the next eye penetration. I would say Dorian is around 30.2N, 79.8W
We shall see, I tend to agree but I could also see it just skirting by.... gonna be real close either way. Plus the exact point may be a moot point if it maintains it's strength and has that expanding wind field.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It's actually pretty much due north of the last plot now as the data is in. It's closer to 29.95 N, 79.65 W. Last drop had it rounded to 29.9N and 79.6 W.