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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

ForsythSnow said:
This jog it took leveled off, but seems to not be going back. Almost looks like it's trying another one? This is opposite of what we were expecting with a WNW movement of it becomes the case.
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From what I can tell, this is definitely slightly south of most model guidance right now. If this becomes a trend we may have larger implications down the road.
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been extended northward from
the Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River.

A Storm Surge Watch has also been extended northward from the
Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
* Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
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...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...
11:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.9°W
Moving: W at 6 mph
Min pressure: 914 mb
Max sustained: 180 mph
 
220614_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Certain areas of the Bahamas are done for the year and likely will be never be the same for many years. 2019 will forever be the big one for them. Hopefully some former presidents step up with benefits and missionary work. I expect many churches across the south-east to be helping as soon as the media gets the full picture.
 
I said earlier that Freeport might miss the brunt of Dorian, but that couldn’t be further from the truth..it’s going right over head..in the middle of the night..those poor people
D74E6DD6-BEEC-4338-9832-9A9EADC9A774.jpeg
 
deltadog03 said:
I hate to sound silly, but its put up or shut up time now with the movement and speed. All models (and there forecast) is going to call for some north movement very quickly (ie WNW )
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Not silly at all. The models have been further west all day. The storm is still moving west. There need to be changes overnight or the SE coast could be in big trouble.
 
There was a peaceful resort on Freeport I went to in 2012 with beach hammocks blowing in the breeze and rasta music playing in the background.. the ☀️ shined all day long..I just can’t imagine what that scene is like right now..it’s actually kind of sad
 
deltadog03 said:
I hate to sound silly, but its put up or shut up time now with the movement and speed. All models (and there forecast) is going to call for some north movement very quickly (ie WNW )
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Well it helps a lot it’s no longer moving at 13mph. The loss in forward speed compared to 24-48 hours ago is like half...so no it doesn't have to do anything quickly. It bought itself time to slow down, stall and head north and hopefully some wobbles east up the coast.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Not silly at all. The models have been further west all day. The storm is still moving west. There need to be changes overnight or the SE coast could be in big trouble.
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I would agree...if this motion contues (generally) then the euro op and ens could be super fun/interesting.
 
I kinda alluded to it earlier but I think we're going to have a good gauge on what's going on shortly after this storm reaches Freeport. If it throws up the brakes or at least slows to a crawl, then that will mean a further east turn and less impacts on land. If it does so later then well, thousands of people have problems in Florida and not exactly the time to leave, so hopefully that doesn't happen.

Gonna be about 8-12 more hours of nail biting.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Well it helps a lot it’s no longer moving at 13mph. The loss in forward speed compared to 24-48 hours ago is like half...so no it doesn't have to do anything quickly. It bought itself time to slow down, stall and head north and hopefully some wobbles east up the coast.
Click to expand...
Hopefully so but it did actually increase speed a mile up to 6 mph if that does increase over next few readings we can throw all the models out
 
Icon starts off moving Dorian WNW motion when its moving west or wsw. So I'm throwing that run out. Now cast time
 
Hurricane Matthew was in a very unique environment to be that far west along the south-east coast. I don’t see it with Dorian just too many signs suggesting to the right vs the left of Matthews track.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Hurricane Matthew was in a very unique environment to be that far west along the south-east coast. I don’t see it with Dorian just too many signs suggesting to the right vs the left of Matthews track.
Click to expand...
And what are those?

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
GREATLY appreciate everybody's continued commentary/analysis. I was at the Braves game today (another great win; that's 21 wins in 27 games attended this season), but was able to somewhat keep up through the afternoon and evening thanks to this board. Again, thank you.

I can't help but think, with every passing hour this center works west at 5 mph, 6 mph, it gives me a foreboding feeling. I only can hope the folks along the East Central and Northeastern Florida coastlines did not let down their guard a day or two ago with the easterly trends.

I lived on St. Simons Island, Ga., for six years in the early and mid 2000s, and still have many friends down there. They had flooding issues with Matthew. Surge could be a real issue if Dorian tracks close enough; hence why the evacs east of I-95 were ordered this evening.

Thanks again for the knowledge share and info transfer. Everybody stay safe!

--30--
 
This is almost identical to HRWF except for timing. HRWF is Friday at 18z while Icon is Thursday at 15z.

Ironically the Icon closely matched this timing with NHC.

Icon makes landfall at SC/NC line but very very close in several places.

Screenshot_20190901-233537.jpg
 
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