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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

metwannabe said:
Check out the map Ryan Maue shared, 18z HiRes Euro showing all the wobbles also it's almost dead on, Dorian might be a smidge south atm
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Thank you for posting this! I guess its on the money right now, but Dorian better change direction quickly if its going to be on the north side of that island.
 
Hwrf and its little ens group i saw landfall Florida. Curious to see the guidance tonight, even the nam. Think its at a 262 or 261 heading right now. Still 5mph. Gonna be about as close call as u can get .
 
Agree with Cranky it’s close to the stop sign. And I disagree with others, this is not as close as it gets, it could have gotten way closer to Florida. Thankfully it slowed down. ?
 
ForsythSnow said:
That's a big problem right? Weaker low = weaker trough, and less of a kick east?
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Correct. It also will slow Dorian down a bit so It may move further NW when an Incoming high moves over top.


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Oh geez.... Nam 3km for 00z pressure dropping as its spinning in place before it takes off. Tad faster and west of 18z.

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Ollie Williams said:
Correct. It also will slow Dorian down a bit so It may move further NW when an Incoming high moves over top.


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But it’s digging more.

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Henry2326 said:
Oh geez.... Nam 3km for 00z pressure dropping as its spinning in place before it takes off. Tad faster and west of 18z.

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From what I think, the NAM isn't set to understand upwelling or SSTs very well if at all. Even if it does, then it's not meant to handle TC intensity well so I'm just looking at track.
 
BHS1975 said:
But it’s digging more.

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That is true, a good sign. However If It were to flatten and be weaken I could see Dorian slowing down. If It were to slow down, that would allow the High to move In faster potentially turning It Inland. Probably won’t happen though. Just something to keep in mind.


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If it was still moving fast this would have ended up similar to Andrew. It’s amazing to see something so strong be told to slow down and turn north and eventually east somewhat. Watching this slow movement is crazy. Hats off to the models for this so far let’s hope everything continues as planned.
 
Ser Pounce said:
High span bridges (Ravenell, Cosgrove, ...) will close once when winds reach 40mph. With regard to evacuation, travel within 526 is not impeded. Lane reversal starts at the 26/526 interchange, but I would avoid travel on 526 with the exception of anywhere outside the city of North Charleston to avoid being caught up in any forced outbound traffic. There are a few exits open between Charleston and Columbia - the nearest I believe is near the Volvo plant (absolute outer Summerville area).
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Thanks for the info. I just got home from Georgia I think I'm going to try to wait as long as possible just to give the tourists time to get out of town.. just wanted to make sure that I'd be able to get out of here
Ser Pounce said:
High span bridges (Ravenell, Cosgrove, ...) will close once when winds reach 40mph. With regard to evacuation, travel within 526 is not impeded. Lane reversal starts at the 26/526 interchange, but I would avoid travel on 526 with the exception of anywhere outside the city of North Charleston to avoid being caught up in any forced outbound traffic. There are a few exits open between Charleston and Columbia - the nearest I believe is near the Volvo plant (absolute outer Summerville area).
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Thanks for the information! I just got back to town I've been in Georgia all weekend I'm going to try to wait as long as possible to give tourists the time to get out of town first
 
NCSNOW said:
Never thought id see the day, rooting for a GLL would be encouraged on this board or my world view. But here we are lol.
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Maybe I'm missing something about Great Lake low pressure systems for SE winter weather, but how would it sometimes be a bad thing?
 
Also have seen recently that there is another big push on the west side toward the state of FL and expanding again in that direction. Overnight trends in speed and direction will be very telling.
 
deltadog03 said:
Also have seen recently that there is another big push on the west side toward the state of FL and expanding again in that direction. Overnight trends in speed and direction will be very telling.
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Do You think they will hold at 11 or change slightly west?
 
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