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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

It looks a little "ragged" on IR, still dealing with some shear and maybe even some dry air too.

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Looks like we keep seeing landfall near Jupiter and West Palm Beach, and then curving and going up the east coast. This is going to hit FL and then go back out and hit GA, SC, and NC. Looks like huge impact for all of FL and the coast from GA to SC.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Looks like we keep seeing landfall near Jupiter and West Palm Beach, and then curving and going up the east coast. This is going to hit FL and then go back out and hit GA, SC, and NC. Looks like huge impact for all of FL and the coast from GA to SC.
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Well it’s a little early to say this with any certainty. It could just as easily make landfall in central FL and remain over land for a long time, thus reducing the hurricane potential in GA/SC/N.C.
 
I think this has been mentioned but I wouldn't give much weight to the precipitation depictions if this emerges back off the coast. There are usually large pockets of moisture that become detached from the storm and since flooding will be the main concern any areas that are inundated prior to the actual storm arrival will be very prone to flood. gfs_z500a_us_30.png
 
I definitely think Dorian is trying to further intensify with those cold cloud tops that are firing all around the center. It's no linger just in one quadrant but two or three of the four. It also feels like he's slowing down to turn and is growing in size.
 
I'm throwing this recon reading out and I advise you do too. I don't care if its unflagged, that isn't realistic.

12700 2404N 06935W 6957 03005 9890 +081 +043 005077 081 177 063 00
 
sigwx said:
THAT IS WHERE MY MOTHER LIVES JUPITER. WHEN CAN I DEPENP ON A MODEL(S). I MAY NEED TO GO AND GET HER SOON. WHEN IS A GOOD TIME TO DEPEND ON THE MODELS. THANK YOU!!!
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Why not go get her now? Why mess around with Mother Nature? Positives-you don’t have to worry, she does not have to worry, you get to spend time with your mother who does not live close to you, etc. No need in discussing the negatives.
 
NW GA Fan said:
Why not go get her now? Why mess around with Mother Nature? Positives-you don’t have to worry, she does not have to worry, you get to spend time with your mother who does not live close to you, etc. No need in discussing the negatives.
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Yeah l know, l'm going down today it looks (as of now) she is in the path. She is packing now. Thank You!
 
Dorian is going to blow up big time if it is already near a cat 3. Still have a few days to go until it gets close to land.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I definitely think Dorian is trying to further intensify with those cold cloud tops that are firing all around the center. It's no linger just in one quadrant but two or three of the four. It also feels like he's slowing down to turn and is growing in size.
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I think the only thing holding it back any atm is the ULL over the Bahamas, it's still inducing some shear on the SW side but not for long...
 
Poimen said:
Well it’s a little early to say this with any certainty. It could just as easily make landfall in central FL and remain over land for a long time, thus reducing the hurricane potential in GA/SC/N.C.
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That is true. I think based on the models at this moment the most likely outcome is landfall in FL. After that there is still the question of does it go west into the Gulf, or does it curve NE?
 
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