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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

ForsythSnow said:
That's not good as a whole for Florida. With the current model idea that would just devastate the entire state excluding the panhandle if it gets to redevelop in the gulf.
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Unless it makes landfall a second time in the panhandle.
 
Brick Tamland said:
That is true. I think based on the models at this moment the most likely outcome is landfall in FL. After that there is still the question of does it go west into the Gulf, or does it curve NE?
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You can actually get both solutions. The bigger question would be:
Does it go into the gulf? If so, then when/ how sharp and how soon is the curve (if at all) to the NE? If it stays on land in Florida, how far does it go before going back onto water, if at all? If that's the case, would it go OTS afterwards or curve up into the Carolinas?
 
If this was posted earlier, sorry, but still a lot of eps members keep this offshore..... some into the GOM too, almost two camps

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7BC2E772-8160-432A-B1DF-3A494AFBAA26.png***Track from Tuesday***
It’s remarkable how little the landfall area has changed in 3 days!
 
metwannabe said:
If this was posted earlier, sorry, but still a lot of eps members keep this offshore..... some into the GOM too, almost two camps

View attachment 22430
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Yeah so they split the difference.....one camp weaker ridge the other stronger, truth lies in the middle I suppose.....or it could be the one extreme of the other, NHC folks cant catch a break these last few years track wise....obviously for us up here we need to be most concerned for a Floyd type track thats about the only way I see NC seeing actual hurricane conditions out of this one. A long slow inland track will be hell though lots of flooding, probably a decent number of tornados on the NE side etc.....this is all after the initial impact in Florida of a Cat 3/4, safe to say if the current track pans out this is the last time we track a storm named Dorian.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Four days out from possible landfall, and there are still really three different scenarios on the table with the models - curve and out to sea, landfall in FL and then curve NE, or landfall in FL and then into the Gulf before going NE. Madness.
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In other words, Floridians need to prepare for options 2 and 3 at least. I would definitely say that those in South Florida have a better than even chance of impacts from the storm at this point.

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