Canadian with a Florida landfall near Canaveral as it starts its NW motion
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Yeah its already further SW then that
Downeastnc
Member
Wind map for me and you on ICON, though these can be overdone....but given the track and the tendency for a west side wind maxima that forms over the central coastal plains in a lot of these systems its probably not that far off maybe 10-15 over done.....still would be strong TS to borderline hurricane conditions. GFS much weaker barely 60-70 mph gust inland with a much weaker system, not sure I buy into that at this point given how strong the storm is now.
If it is right we would peak out with gust 85-90 in MBY
Even up your way you are knocking on the door to hurricane force gust
Something else to watch for does the ERC help even more to wobble to the west as it become disjointed. Good luck on the models determining that.
Looks like Dorian is following the NHC forecast track so far:
True, except for the point that image is an hour and fifteen minutes old and Dorian is still moving a hair south of west instead of WNW.
F-5
Member
This posting of five day out maps and declaring 'east' or ' west' in reference to Wilmington while the rest of the world is looking at West Palm Beach is just too much.
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Snowflowxxl
Member
The HMOM and HWRF both look the SLIGHTEST bit east
slight problem to that, as Arcc said, its moving W (overall) with some WSW wobbles/short term movement and if that continues there track (and no models track for that matter) is gonna verify in the short term.
Trying to measure on radarscope looks like it's gone about 12 miles in the last 2 hours. Not sure how reliable the hrrr really is for the tropics but it starts a NW drift tomorrow morning
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Looking at Longwave IR you can see cloud tops have slightly warmed in the last 2 hours and it appears the western edge of the precip shield is hitting a wall (evident on shortwave IR). It’s only a matter of time now before he/she/it begins to turn.
weatherguy
Member
If Dorian's eye center passes westward right over Freeport this coming afternoon, that's bad news for the east coast of FL.
Downeastnc
Member
I noticed this as well, I think folks will be surprised how quickly it starts to jog WNW or even NW here in the next 6-12 hrs....
I am sorry but I have to respectfully disagree here. In fact, the western edge is still advancing westward. The cirrus outflow shield is now* basically hitting the coast of FL.. Also look at the WV, the northern side still has a slight look of being "flattened if you will" There is still ridging to the north or this wouldnt' be moving Westward with slight WSW jogs.
In fact, if you look at the 3z *latest available* steering map you can actually see the "gap" to its NW has actually closed a little bit on the new run.
The most likely thing is to for the models to be right and it to turn WNW then North just off the coast. The issue is the farther west it gets the closer to the coast it comes. Its a whole different world if the center is 25 miles off the coast rather than 50 miles off the coast. And that is just talking about Florida.
It’s happening. Radar hallucinations will light up the twittersphere for the next several hours but it is hitting the proverbial wall and it will most definitely begin the long trip North soon enough. Next stop? Nobody knows
F-5
Member
It could be worse.
Imagine if Raleigh was on the NC coast.
Haha....good point.
Have had TPBI loaded for several hours now and if anything the precip shield is expanding west, not contracting. Not yet anyway.
Consistent slightly south of due west motion for literally about twelve hours now.
Will that matter, TBD, but if I were on the Space Coast I wouldn't like it.
Anyone have any info on that oil tanker field on Grand Bahama? I'm sure they are built to withstand a hurricane, but this is on a level they may not have planned for. Either way, it's taking a pounding right now.
Also, at least on TPBI the moat separating the inner eyewall and the outer eyewall (as such that it is) has closed considerably in the past hour.
well short term motion has been a big issue on all 00z models tonight, euro initialized, lets see what is up with it.
Brent
Member
Brent
Member
HR48 new euro is west of last nights 00z run. There is more ridging over NC and just off the Middle Atlantic coast. More ridging that is further north and nosing NW near Bermuda. Trof looks flatter over the Great Lakes as well.
a pretty big shift west to be honest on that panel
Brent
Member
BufordWX
Member
Am I seeing things or did Dorian just stop moving?
Last few frames look like the eye hasn’t moved.
Last few frames look like the eye hasn’t moved.
F-5
Member
Looks like it may have put on the brakes the past half hour.
Just of JAX at hour 72. It is a little west from last nights run. and about the same at hr96. I bet we see some interesting ENS members tonight.
Brent
Member
Yes it has. You could see the extreme western edge of the precip shield receive some pushback a little over an hour ago. Now it looks like the eye of Dorian is feeling it as well
you were right Jimmy it has hit the brakes. Will be interesting to see what happens next. Good call.
You should sort back through my comments and see all of the bad calls I made this past week. I’m 1 for 20 tops. ??
BufordWX
Member
Now that it has hit the wall Dorian looks to be wobbling ever ever so slightly to the north.
BufordWX
Member
Hurricane Dorian 3 AM update:
LOCATION: 26.6N 78.1W
ABOUT 40 MI E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 125 MI E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 170 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 916 MB
LOCATION: 26.6N 78.1W
ABOUT 40 MI E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 125 MI E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 170 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 916 MB
Could this be the stall we've been eagerly anticipating? If so, this could be very good news for the entire SE as this is early. However, because it is quite a bit earlier than model consensus had the stall, I'm wondering if this is a fakeout and that it will resume slow westerly movement. Hopefully not.
Also, cloud tops are warming, indicative of further weakening, which I assume would be largely due to upwelling and some due to land. Remember what Levi said about the HWRF. He thinks that it has been showing a motion more toward the NW than NNW after the slowdown and change in direction from W due to a lower steering level caused by weakening being assumed due to upwelling. Let's see what happens. Do we have the stall now that will then change to a NNW move offshore FL. Or does it threaten central/NE FL?
Also, cloud tops are warming, indicative of further weakening, which I assume would be largely due to upwelling and some due to land. Remember what Levi said about the HWRF. He thinks that it has been showing a motion more toward the NW than NNW after the slowdown and change in direction from W due to a lower steering level caused by weakening being assumed due to upwelling. Let's see what happens. Do we have the stall now that will then change to a NNW move offshore FL. Or does it threaten central/NE FL?
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If you look at the HRRR it shows Dorian picking up speed and tracking north.
BHS1975
Member
More ridging and flatter trough on 6z NAM
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Henry2326
Member
Spotlight Charleston....00z HRWF continues to put the eye very close in Charleston bay as a major. Timing faster and now better aligns with NHC chart. 9:00 pm Thursday and its low tide. Stronger and faster than 18z.
06z running.
06z running.
The NAM stayed offshore, 06z GFS is slightly east and stays offshore, Dorian appears to be drifting n/nw, Grand Bahama getting southern eyewall now..... need to watch that trough and Atlantic ridge closely but atm I feel better about it never making LF, close but just offshore.