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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

There have been references that the legacy GFS is still available. I use several model paywall sites and I don't think I have access.

Does anyone have a link to the legacy GFS to share?
 
NCHighCountryWX said:
There have been references that the legacy GFS is still available. I use several model paywall sites and I don't think I have access.

Does anyone have a link to the legacy GFS to share?
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It's still readily available, tropical tidbits has it as well as Pivotal and others.
 
NAM tends to overdo the pressure falls in tropical cyclones. That said the 12z run for the 3k NAM indicates an 887 MB hurricane creeping through the Bahamas toward South FL. We can take from runs like this that at the least Florida needs to prepare for a devastating storm.

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Long range NAM caveats...but Dorian's drifting southwest towards the end of the run.

honestly seems like if it were to eventually go north, that'd be the worse solution. Allows for more time to intensify over warm water.
 
The NAM has the storm turning SE even that last frame, looks to be setting up for a loop lol.....NAM is trash for tropics typically though...and I certainly would not put much stock in the NAM outside of 48 hrs with track at all.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Long range NAM caveats...but Dorian's drifting southwest towards the end of the run.

honestly seems like if it were to eventually go north, that'd be the worse solution. Allows for more time to intensify over warm water.
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Probably because he’s feeling more of the upper level steering as he gets deeper.

5cda97e66c18f6f991f0b917a77d8fe9.jpg



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As things are looking, it seems Gulf coast residents are by no means out of the woods yet, especially for the FL panhandle.

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metwannabe said:
And it has made up "lost ground" to the west, yesterday I mentioned 25N, 70W as a point of reference b/c ofc track and most modeling had it passing right over that point.... might actually go south of that now. Dang it, was hoping for slower which meant ots
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great observation! It almost appears to be moving in a very short term Westerly direction.
 
145103_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 69.8W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
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