• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Snowfan said:
Sometime today.
Click to expand...
Yeah most likely later today or tonight... considering the potential dire situation that's about to unfold sooner rather than later would make sense.

From NHC:
By the end of
the forecast period, the ridge is forecast to erode and the
steering currents will weaken, resulting in Dorian slowing down
considerably near and over the Florida peninsula. This increases
the uncertainty in the track forecast during the 4- to -5 day
period, and also will lead to a prolonged duration of wind,
storm surge, and rainfall.

Any history of storms with this type of prolonged duration of hurricane conditions in Fl? Seems they usually just cross or skirt but rarely actually crawl the spine
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah most likely later today or tonight... considering the potential dire situation that's about to unfold sooner rather than later would make sense.

From NHC:
By the end of
the forecast period, the ridge is forecast to erode and the
steering currents will weaken, resulting in Dorian slowing down
considerably near and over the Florida peninsula. This increases
the uncertainty in the track forecast during the 4- to -5 day
period, and also will lead to a prolonged duration of wind,
storm surge, and rainfall.

Any history of storms with this type of prolonged duration of hurricane conditions in Fl? Seems they usually just cross or skirt but rarely actually crawl the spine
Click to expand...

This is actually a really good point. While anything could happen, history is more against the stall over FL outcome atleast in my memory. Odds do suggest it either go across or bounce up toward the Carolinas.
 
One thing that worries me is models are typically trash in the long range...we would normally be modeled an APPS runner after Florida. But no, it’s east. Kinda makes me wonder.
 
Goes from 140 down to 125 prior to landfall must be northerly shear?
 
NWTENN said:
View attachment 22431***Track from Tuesday***
It’s remarkable how little the landfall area has changed in 3 days!
Click to expand...
Frankly, I wouldn't call that remarkable. Considering the data from the models, and the issues in predictions, this is as good as it gets. It might verify and It might not. There are a great deal of unknowns....
 
Rainfall potential from the 11am advisory.
145103WPCQPF_sm.gif
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah most likely later today or tonight... considering the potential dire situation that's about to unfold sooner rather than later would make sense.

From NHC:
By the end of
the forecast period, the ridge is forecast to erode and the
steering currents will weaken, resulting in Dorian slowing down
considerably near and over the Florida peninsula. This increases
the uncertainty in the track forecast during the 4- to -5 day
period, and also will lead to a prolonged duration of wind,
storm surge, and rainfall.

Any history of storms with this type of prolonged duration of hurricane conditions in Fl? Seems they usually just cross or skirt but rarely actually crawl the spine
Click to expand...
That statement got my attention when I read discussion. They are giving thought to worse case in my opinion....
 
Something else to think about. If it does slow down near the southern FL coast, it will do so over the Gulf Stream with pretty high TCHP. Upwelling will not be an issue. That along with Florida being flat, should it reach Cat 4 or Cat 5, it could sustain that for a long while. That would put the northern eyewall onshore for hours before it makes landfall and starts losing some punch.
 
Arcc said:
This is actually a really good point. While anything could happen, history is more against the stall over FL outcome atleast in my memory. Odds do suggest it either go across or bounce up toward the Carolinas.
Click to expand...
Or bounce OTS, don't try to reflect it up this way....
 
Arcc said:
Something else to think about. If it does slow down near the southern FL coast, it will do so over the Gulf Stream with pretty high TCHP. Upwelling will not be an issue. That along with Florida being flat, should it reach Cat 4 or Cat 5, it could sustain that for a long while. That would put the northern eyewall onshore for hours before it makes landfall and starts losing some punch.
Click to expand...
This is why I feel like the rainfall potential map from the 11 AM advisory could be a conservative forecast.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
Looks like for now the NHC is going with it hitting FL and then turning NE up through the state and then GA, SC, and NC instead of continuing to go west and into the Gulf. This could end up wrecking almost the whole state of FL and doing serious damage to the coasts of GA, SC, and NC.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top