• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Dorian

yeah I spoke too soon on GFS getting ready to come in. Was heading straight west and now it hooks north suddenly for some reason.
 
And the ICON returns it to beast status off the SE coast, thank goodness it's heading NE and "hopefully" that trough sliding down in behind the H in the NE will continue to kick it out.

1567180498274.png
 
Interesting look on the 12Z ICON. Brings him in near Hollywood then crosses the peninsula emerging in the gulf just North of Tampa then moves back into into Florida near the Cedar Keys again crosses the peninsula and reemerges into the Atlantic near St. Augustine.
 
Seriously, if you live anywhere in Florida, do you evacuate the whole state?
 
gfs_mslp_wind_seus_17.png
 
The weakness to his NE is quickly filling up and the ridges are almost "bridged" and its starting to move almost due west at that point. The "escape" OTS is quickly leaving to its NE
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
GFS trying to live up to its real name Goofus. A storm this size can not abruptly go from due west to due north just like that.
Click to expand...

Sure it can, if the ridge is weakening then canes can and do stop on dimes, change direction suddenly etc....I have seen them do all manner of weird things off the NC coast when the steering currents are weak, changing etc....
 
deltadog03 said:
The weakness to his NE is quickly filling up and the ridges are almost "bridged" and its starting to move almost due west at that point. The "escape" OTS is quickly leaving to its NE
Click to expand...
No doubt... curious to see how the trough that is just starting to dig in midwest will effect that ridge and create another weakness in the next few frames (IF).
1567180828930.png
 
This big bit@$ it clearly getting stronger by the hour. Look at the simulated IR and look at the southern end of it. The out flow to the South clearly shows no shear and no dry air. Also I'm seeing a due West track last several frames

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 
uh oh, this run doesn't have the recurve yet at 138:

1567181367261.png

1567181397960.png

Good thing is this is a weakening TS over land by then but crud, that increases possible flooding impacts.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top