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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

The 12z Euro run was more or less on top of the 12z run from yesterday and as discussed above, a tick east of 0z run.

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SD said:
So to recap slightly west at 48, east at 72 the same or slightly east at 96

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No, it is further east at just about all points through 72 vs the prior 3 runs and about the same at hour 96 vs the 0Z run’s 108. My comparisons of today’s 12Z weren’t against the 12Z of yesterday.
 
GaWx said:
The HWRF has been behind the curve it seems. This 12Z run is actually the furthest east of any when off FL/GA. So, this joins the consensus of being further east at 12Z when down there. Things continue to look better for FL/GA. But still watching. I expect the HWRF to keep trending east.
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Its bwen holding....remember it was the only one many times along this journey.....when it changes, I will come along.
 
F-5 said:
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It looks to me like he’s back from the slow WNW or NW drift to hardly moving at all. Any other opinions?
 
When do the short range models start to come into play and become helpful?
 
At this point I’m done model watching with this one. We know the steering and the expected track. So what we watch for is wobbles. Because I really think the track is set.


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SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
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Jessy89 said:
At this point I’m done model watching with this one. We know the steering and the expected track. So what we watch for is wobbles. Because I really think the track is set.


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Agreed. The only question is if it clips HAT. I am thinking just offshore of HAT.
 
All students must be evacuated from the UNC Wilmington campus by 5:00 p.m. on Tuesday, according to a campus email issued to faculty, staff and students.
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Jessy89 said:
At this point I’m done model watching with this one. We know the steering and the expected track. So what we watch for is wobbles. Because I really think the track is set.


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Really? Watch....something unexpected is gonna happen.
At one point with 3 days out it was going to hit Haiti and poof....
 
Henry2326 said:
Really? Watch....something unexpected is gonna happen.
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The worst case scenario is probably hitting somewhere up in North Carolina. And that scenario is very much still on the table.


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Henry2326 said:
Its bwen holding....remember it was the only one many times along this journey.....when it changes, I will come along.
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Do you want a hurricane strike on Charleston? Seems as if you do. You're hugging the only model that shows it like we in the upstate hold the CMC when it's the only one still giving snow. And we know how that turns out.
 
Henry2326 said:
Really? Watch....something unexpected is gonna happen.
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Happened before ... just once or twice (ha ha) in the past few years ...

Really keeping quiet since no data to add ... except to suggest there is home-brew concern from this one member about folks getting flippant/cavalier here ...
 
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Jessy89 said:
The worst case scenario is probably hitting somewhere up in North Carolina. And that scenario is very much still on the table.


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I think the worse case scenario is it scrapes part of the coastline. These models have 100-200 mile error. We are only at about 65 miles for best case.....so little room for error. Don't let this lull you into false security. It hasn't even left the Bahamas yet. Hopefully it works out...but I'm not sold yet.
 
pcbjr said:
Happened before ... just once or twice (ha ha) in the past few years ...

Really keeping quiet since no data to add ... except to suggest there is home-brew concern from this one member about folks getting flippant/cavalier here ...
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Its so easy to buy in to the good scenarios......experience says wait for T-1....
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Do you want a hurricane strike on Charleston? Seems as if you do. You're hugging the only model that shows it like we in the upstate hold the CMC when it's the only one still giving snow. And we know how that turns out.
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Watching the history of performance of respective models. They don't have a good trend. HWRF performed exceptionally well and better than the global models for Irma, Maria, Michael, and Katrina. You might want to watch Levi Cowans video from 2 days ago concerning how HWRF has a better modeling technique than long term models.
This is not emotional, its analysis.
I watch to keep it real because I live there and want to keep my friends and family safe. It doesn't really matter what I want to happen. Mother nature will do what she wants. I just need to survive it....
Hope it works out our way....but I bought in to Euro's crazy idea that Florence was going to hit Charleston....we know how that worked out. ERROR IN THE EURO MODEL WAS 172 MILES.......currently best case is 65 miles....to my point.
 
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Nam is a little slower and slightly west this run looks to be moving toward the 12z global tracks

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SD said:
Nam is a little slower and slightly west this run looks to be moving toward the 12z global tracks

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Ridge to the east holding up better at 18Z its that ridge breaking down gives Dorian a escape route NE, thats why a faster timeline or ridge that holds up even 12 hrs longer makes such a big difference in the Carolina's.

12Z
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18Z
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SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to Altamaha
Sound Georgia.

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward to Ponte Vedra
Beach Florida.

The Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch have been extended
northward to South Santee River South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to Altamaha Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
* Altamaha Sound to South Santee River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic coast of the United States should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian, as additional watches may be required
tonight and Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
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I don’t know if it is just a wobble or not, but I have to be honest and say that I like seeing what almost looks like a little NE drift over the last 30 minutes or so. It may not be more than a wobble, but the longer he sits here without an appreciable westerly component of motion, the better I feel for the Melbourne to Gainesville to Charleston corridor. That’s not saying all clear by any means. But I certainly like what I’ve seen over the last 12 hours trackwise as far as how that affects the chances of a major impact in that corridor. I can’t overemphasize the importance that Dorian is further east than just about all earlier guidance for the current time. The consensus had him at least at the longitude of the western tip of Grand Bahama Island.
Regardless, keep a watchful eye for any surprise decided moves to the NW through tomorrow.
 
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