Is it just a coincidence that Dorian slammed on the breaks just in time to miss FL or does the landmass cause hurricanes to want to change directions ?
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Downeastnc
Member
Florida had nothing to do with it, the storm ran out of ridge.....if it had not ran out of ridge then Florida would not have even slowed it down...well maybe a little.
Trough swinging in time, ridge placement
Models seem to want to have a little bit more west in their movement through the first 60 hours. The idea of getting the eyewall very close to shore or possibly on shore near Canaveral even up to Jax doesn't seem unreasonable. Moving up the coast places like Kiawah Island, IoP in SC, Oak Island, BHI, Carolina/Kure/Atlantic beaches, Morehead City and Emerald Isle in NC may have to deal with a direct pass by the western eyewall (or what's left)
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Cadi40
Member
Although there are studies reguarding the effects of land on hurricanes, it’s widely believed that hurricanes have no sense of direction, and are not attracted to or steered away from land.
NAM notably farther south at hr22
Cadi40
Member
Although it has stalled we still do not know when Dorian will turn north. Stalled Hurricanes, especially Dorian, are very hard to forecast because a few extra hours of motion that was unpredicted can throw the track off severely.
Henry2326
Member
As well, lets define stalled....
Its still bouncing around, preferably in a small general area, but definitely not in one single spot for 12 to 24 hours. This is a scary fluid situation.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is truly sickening.
Yuleeraptor
Member
Something something who wants to go to Florida...
Has anyone heard from that hurricane chaser ? I forget his name.
Cadi40
Member
I wouldn’t necessarily say fluid, it’s not moving much as of now, but you can never really fully predict when it will begin to pick up speed.
Henry2326
Member
Its happening at the beginning of the run.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Down to 160 now. It'll not be a 5 for much longer.
Henry2326
Member
As predicted....is it earlier or on schedule?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Sometimes I find that humor can be the best way to deal w/ stress...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Expected.
Notice that at least several of the most recent Euro runs have him get to almost the western tip of Grand Bahama Island before the NNW turn. That’s about 35 miles west of where he is now. I want to see if he resumes westward motion to go close to those 35 miles west. If he instead is about as far west as he’s going to get on that island, then his actual track will clearly be east of these Euro runs in that area, which should have good implications for FL and GA at the least and probably also for lower SC. Nowcasting is more important than ever at this critical part of the track!
No but he often goes away from keyboard for 24 hours or longer in past storms too. Keeps his followers commenting and he will be on his own TV series this month. Works like a charm.
Stormsfury
Member
Talking about Josh (ICyclone). Sure all communications are down so it likely will be some time before we will know anything
This would be great news for you and Phil, and all those along the Fl/Ga coast and as long as the path followed suit with the recurve this would be good news for all along the coast even up here. My only concern would be if it resumed a more northern motion before recurve leaving a more intact stronger system close to the coast of SC and the fragile OBX. Lots to watch
SC_Wildcat
Member
This is nerve wrecking not knowing what to do this close out. We already have evacuations here in Myrtle Beach for those right on the coast just dont know what to do inland.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
It's a rumor since it didn't come out of his mouth but Josh supposedly is shaken up but okay.
I don't think we talked about him as much but Jim Edds is also okay. He's just going to be stuck for a few days however.
If Dorian starts chugging NNW at the end of the day without getting towards the end of Grand Bahama that's going to be great news.
I don't think we talked about him as much but Jim Edds is also okay. He's just going to be stuck for a few days however.
If Dorian starts chugging NNW at the end of the day without getting towards the end of Grand Bahama that's going to be great news.
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I just read elsewhere that he’s really shaken up but apparently ok. But this is only fwiw because this is only second hand info from second hand info rather than directly from him. So, hope he’s ok. That being said, when chasers like him take these crazy chances, this may sound cold but the harsh reality is that they are choosing to take a chance on serious consequences as nobody makes them do these things. I can’t at all fathom taking such a chance on my precious life to do this sort of thing. To me it is borderline insane.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
He isn't supposed to even go NE until way up the FL coast.
Seeing some saying ERC is almost complete. Can someone verify?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Down to 155.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
This shot is both pretty and ominous...
First post: I have been watching the mimics in motion(last 24 hours loop). I can see the effects on the storm track that land interaction causes plus what appears to be the start of erc . Did the land interaction cause this or break up the erc?
So as it goes thru ERC it will increase in size correct? Also, will it restrengthen once ERC is complete or will the stall keep it down as a 4?
Cadi40
Member
The interaction of the Bahamas with Dorian did little to it's strength, the Islands are very small in size and relatively flat. Dorian is most likely weakening somewhat due to an ERC and maybe some minimal weakening from the Bahamas.
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019
Satellite and radar imagery show that Dorian is moving very slowly
over Grand Bahama Island this morning. The hurricane remains quite
symmetric and still exhibits a very well-defined eye, but there is
somewhat less evidence of concentric eyewalls in Bahamas radar
imagery. Satellite intensity estimates from UW/CIMSS, SAB, and
TAFB are slightly lower this morning, and the initial intensity has
been reduced to 135 kt. As Dorian moves very slowly during the
next 24 hours, some upwelling in the deeper waters around the
Bahamas could cause some gradual weakening. After that time, the
hurricane is expected to experience a gradual increase in
southwesterly shear, which should lead to a slow decrease in wind
speed. However, Dorian is forecast to remain a very powerful
hurricane while it moves near the southeastern United States coast.
The NHC intensity forecast is close to the statistical guidance
during the first day or so, then near the HFIP corrected consensus
model later in the period.
As anticipated, the ridge to the north of the storm has weakened
and the eye of Dorian has only been inching westward this morning.
The hurricane is expected to drift westward or west-northwestward
over the next 24 hours, which will cause a prolonged period of
devastating winds and storm surge over Grand Bahama Island. By late
Tuesday, the weakness in the ridge becomes more pronounced and
Dorian should turn northwestward near the east coast of the Florida.
By day 3, the hurricane is expected to make a northeastward turn
ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. The overall track envelope
has not changed much, and little adjustment to the previous NHC
forecast was required.
It cannot be stressed enough that only a small deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of the extremely
dangerous hurricane onshore of the Florida east coast within the
hurricane warning area. In addition, Dorian's wind field is
predicted to expand, which would bring hurricane-force winds closer
to the east coast of Florida even if the track does change.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019
Satellite and radar imagery show that Dorian is moving very slowly
over Grand Bahama Island this morning. The hurricane remains quite
symmetric and still exhibits a very well-defined eye, but there is
somewhat less evidence of concentric eyewalls in Bahamas radar
imagery. Satellite intensity estimates from UW/CIMSS, SAB, and
TAFB are slightly lower this morning, and the initial intensity has
been reduced to 135 kt. As Dorian moves very slowly during the
next 24 hours, some upwelling in the deeper waters around the
Bahamas could cause some gradual weakening. After that time, the
hurricane is expected to experience a gradual increase in
southwesterly shear, which should lead to a slow decrease in wind
speed. However, Dorian is forecast to remain a very powerful
hurricane while it moves near the southeastern United States coast.
The NHC intensity forecast is close to the statistical guidance
during the first day or so, then near the HFIP corrected consensus
model later in the period.
As anticipated, the ridge to the north of the storm has weakened
and the eye of Dorian has only been inching westward this morning.
The hurricane is expected to drift westward or west-northwestward
over the next 24 hours, which will cause a prolonged period of
devastating winds and storm surge over Grand Bahama Island. By late
Tuesday, the weakness in the ridge becomes more pronounced and
Dorian should turn northwestward near the east coast of the Florida.
By day 3, the hurricane is expected to make a northeastward turn
ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. The overall track envelope
has not changed much, and little adjustment to the previous NHC
forecast was required.
It cannot be stressed enough that only a small deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of the extremely
dangerous hurricane onshore of the Florida east coast within the
hurricane warning area. In addition, Dorian's wind field is
predicted to expand, which would bring hurricane-force winds closer
to the east coast of Florida even if the track does change.
I think it is also from what almost has to be cooling by at least several degrees of SSTs in and around there from the very warm ~30C SSTs prior to the storm. After many hours of rain cooled air to well below 30C and no sunshine, the waters almost can’t remain that warm.
Henry2326
Member
NHC agrees with you.....
As Dorian moves very slowly during the
next 24 hours, some upwelling in the deeper waters around the
Bahamas could cause some gradual weakening.