Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[weatherguy]

New 00z GFS is more SW compared to 12z and 18z.
00z may have also been initialized slightly too far north as well because of this wobble WSW.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

And what are those?
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The pattern was much more favorable with Matthew never losing some west movement near Cuba. Dorian on the other hand, is getting pulled, shunted, slowed and yanked north after seeing a stop sign.

 

[RBR71]

How when 18z ICON was closer to Myrtle Beach? “Further West” is a bit of a reach there...

It's slight but it is a shift west from 18z

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[Ollie Williams]

How when 18z ICON was closer to Myrtle Beach? “Further West” is a bit of a reach there...

Must be your bird vision not being able too see it correctly.

 

[Arcc]

Get back on topic please.

And that was the straw.

 

[deltadog03]

at HR54 the GFS looks like its trying to turn Dorian into FL on a NW heading...lets see where this goes.

 

[GravityWave]

How when 18z ICON was closer to Myrtle Beach? “Further West” is a bit of a reach there...

The 00z ICON was closer to the coast for basically the entire track.

 

[Philstorm91]

This continued WSW jog past the last Bahama island (Grand Bahama) is just ominous for anyone on the FL east coast. If it doesn't slow down or change direction soon, the models will have to play catchup. The 0z runs that have come in so far seem to be doing just that.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Very little west...for 4 days out...I don’t think it means much. Well, I mean good that it’s not changing a lot to send it inland.

 

[Henry2326]

This continued WSW jog past the last Bahama island (Grand Bahama) is just ominous for anyone on the FL east coast. If it doesn't slow down or change direction soon, the models will have to play catchup. The 0z runs that have come in so far seem to be doing just that.

The models have been playing catch up for a week....

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Very little west...for 4 days out...I don’t think it means much. Well, I mean good that it’s not changing a lot to send it inland.

Well birdie I don’t think things are gonna fly east if that trough continues to look weaker and the ST ridge continues to flex even more

 

[RBR71]

These slight shifts have huge implications

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[Myfrotho704_]

Trough does actually look a tiny bit stronger tho

 

[Philstorm91]

The models have been playing catch up for a week....

Yep, and this is what makes tracking the storm so suspenseful. Nobody seems to really know where this ends up, how fast, or how strong.

 

[BHS1975]

Well birdie I don’t think things are gonna fly east if that trough continues to look weaker and the ST ridge continues to flex even more

Yeah and we got 4 more days of trends.


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[Snowfan]

I have some very sad news:

 

[jackendrickwx]

GFS

 

[Henry2326]

Yep, and this is what makes tracking the storm so suspenseful. Nobody seems to really know where this ends up, how fast, or how strong.

I'm certain "suspenseful" isn't the word I would use for a community that might be blown to pieces....our homes, schools, and communities could take years to re-build.

 

[Arcc]

If Dorian wasn't over Grand Bahama, I think its would go Sub-900mb. The IR appearence is actually improved and the giant growing feeder band really gives a Rita look to it.

 

[SD]

Trough does actually look a tiny bit stronger tho

Yeah then the Bermuda ridge is stronger so the net net is negligible changes

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[RBR71]

Yeah then the Bermuda ridge is stronger so the net net is negligible changes

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Virtually unchanged from the 18z

 

[Snowfan]

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 78.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES

 

[Philstorm91]

I'm certain "suspenseful" isn't the word I would use for a community that might be blown to pieces....our homes, schools, and communities could take years to re-build.

Exactly. I meant a slow motion horror suspense, certainly not an action movie event. Trust me, here on the Gulf coast, every time I stare one of these storms down it's a pretty sick gut wrenching emotion. I hope everyone is safe along the east coast.

 

[jackendrickwx]

GFS rain

 

[malak05]

Just for fun looking RGEM ia basically got the eye wall hugging the florida coastline

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This ridge ??‍ As its trending stronger, it’s tucking in Dorian more/pushing Dorian south , and trying to bridge over Dorian, but the troughs trended a bit stronger aswell

 

[RBR71]

Winds at 850 level not at surface but gives you a good idea of that expanding wind field and probably some decent gust inland

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[Cadi40]

Is this actually going to turn? How confident are we this is going to turn?

 

[deltadog03]

Is this actually going to turn? How confident are we this is going to turn?

It will turn for sure, when, will be the question.

 

[SD]

Virtually unchanged from the 18z

Yeah maybe we can actually start looking into impacts tomorrow

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[GeorgiaGirl]

Is this actually going to turn? How confident are we this is going to turn?

It should eventually slow and turn, the question is when and where and it's going to have big implications downstream.

That's where I think this hurricane could sadly have one more trick up its sleeve.

 

[Arcc]

At time of this image was just a hair north of the track, looking at current sat image probably has wobbled back to right on top of the track..

View attachment 22810

I remembered this for reference.

Looking at IR, it looks already south and west of the NHC points, still moving west with south wobbles.

 

[accu35]

Is this actually going to turn? How confident are we this is going to turn?

Its not gonna turn, west bound to Mexico

 

[Arcc]

Not sure if I saw anyone post these and I know it has a west/southwest bias but here are the 12z UK ensembles View attachment 22785

Owning the track. Gonna be shaving close for FL.

 

[deltadog03]

So check this out....in the next 96 mins. 6z Mon or 2 am E the HMON (brand new run, just started running) says Dorian will be here....Do yall see a problem with that?

 

[Jessy89]

It’s gonna turn sure. But people need to prepare just like they would for a hit. Especially in the Carolinas because I certainly believe the eye will pop ashore somewhere briefly


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[GeorgiaGirl]

Yeah uhhh that HMON would mean Dorian turning sharply to the northwest or even north about right now.

 

[Round Oak Weather]

So check this out....in the next 96 mins. 6z Mon or 2 am E the HMON (brand new run, just started running) says Dorian will be here....Do yall see a problem with that?

View attachment 22841

The eye is north of the island. How much of an effect does the models being to far north have on the grand scheme of Dorian?

 

[dsaur]

It should eventually slow and turn, the question is when and where and it's going to have big implications downstream.

That's where I think this hurricane could sadly have one more trick up its sleeve.

Completely agree! Too slow to develop this scenario, too much room for tricks.

 

[Ollie Williams]

The eye is north of the island. How much of an effect does the models being to far north have on the grand scheme of Dorian?

Would mean It will go Further west closer to the coast.


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