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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

Meanwhile, neither the GFS nor CDN suites have much of anything. The Euro suite is setting up to be either a big winner or loser.
 
GaWx said:
Meanwhile, neither the GFS nor CDN suites have much of anything. The Euro suite is setting up to be either a big winner or loser.
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I’ll take my chances on the Euro
 
GaWx said:
Meanwhile, neither the GFS nor CDN suites have much of anything. The Euro suite is setting up to be either a big winner or loser.
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anything with a ts in the Gulf is a "loser" in the broadest sense of the word, IMHO ... but frankly, if one looks at sheer, sst's, heights, upper air currents (projected) and other factors (like a system forming out of Kentucky), it's a dream at this point (a bad dream, nonetheless) ...
 
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I was planning to take a vacation to fort Walton Florida. That’s in the panhandle mon to Friday. Gfs says I shouldn’t change the trip while the euro says shorten it to about Monday to Thursday. Any advice would be helpful I’ve never been there before so this is a first time trip. Hoping to see clear water. What should I do?


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Jessy89 said:
I was planning to take a vacation to fort Walton Florida. That’s in the panhandle mon to Friday. Gfs says I shouldn’t change the trip while the euro says shorten it to about Monday to Thursday. Any advice would be helpful I’ve never been there before so this is a first time trip. Hoping to see clear water. What should I do?


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It’s a beautiful beach, ocean might be angry so the water might not be clear but the beaches are fantastic. Very relaxed compared to PCB or Destin.


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NoSnowATL said:
It’s a beautiful beach, ocean might be angry so the water might not be clear but the beaches are fantastic. Very relaxed compared to PCB or Destin.


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I’m hoping Monday and Tuesday is good days there at least.


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accu35 said:
I've been howling at the potential here for the past few days, so if there is a "threat" coming, can I start the thread at due time?
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Wilkesdud??
 
Jessy89 said:
I was planning to take a vacation to fort Walton Florida. That’s in the panhandle mon to Friday. Gfs says I shouldn’t change the trip while the euro says shorten it to about Monday to Thursday. Any advice would be helpful I’ve never been there before so this is a first time trip. Hoping to see clear water. What should I do?


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Expect FL summer weather ...
 

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Well at least the gfs looks decent for a Florida panhandle vacation. I really hope the weather not bad. But based on models so far it doesn’t look like it warrants canceling


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ICON with a Panhandle hurricane on Friday

GFS still looks to be nothing basically so yeah a lot of possibilities

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looking at the 0z Euro it has definitely trended weaker than previous bullish runs though it is still way stronger than the GFS and much further west

1000 mb SE of New Orleans Friday Night

995 mb making landfall in MS Saturday Night

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_8 (3).png
 
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FWIW 6z icon holding strong
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_40.png
 
There are more members further west this run.
GEFSSE_prec_ptypens_174.png
 
This thing isn’t gonna actually happen till about Friday night correct. I’m hoping if I go on vacation and leave Friday morning I’ll be alright


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Model concencus growing for at least some type of development. Strength and location still up in the air. My 5 days away hot take: strongish tropical storm that makes landfall around Biloxi
 
I believe Barry is coming

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure over the southeastern United States is
forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico,
where a broad low pressure area will likely form in a few days.
Thereafter, upper-level winds support gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form late week while the low meanders near
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast through Friday. Interests
along the northern Gulf Coast and Florida peninsula should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
Maybe models are catching up to the GFS. Gfs seems pretty weak from the get go. And holding firm


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For anyone who may know. When will the water in the gulf get murky instead of clear? Will Monday and Tuesday be clear water days?


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Regarding ensembles' having sub 1004 Gulf lows, whereas the EPS has continued to have numerous members with them, the 12Z GEFS and 12Z GEPS still have none with their strongest of 20 or so members ~1005 mb and most weaker than that. So, the battle line is still drawn between the Euro suite and the GFS/CDN suites. Based on the 12Z Euro op., I expect the 12Z EPS to persist with numerous sub 1004. We'll know soon.
 
12Z EPS:
- mean has trended further west and stronger with it centered in W LA
- numerous sub 1004
- out of ~51, close to 20 get to sub 1000 either in Gulf or after coming inland
- I counted 8 that get to below 992 either in Gulf or after coming inland; 4 of those 8 hit between central LA and central TX coasts; other 4 hit mainly in MS/AL/W FL panhandle
- Landfalls between Thu 7/11 and Mon 7/14 with 7/12-13 dominating
- Mean heaviest rainfall has also shifted west from the 0Z's Big Bend of FL to Phil to SE portion of GA/SC/NC to the 12Z's more spread out from FL Big Bend to NE TX and then coming inland with an impressive 1.5-2" mean centered on ATL-AHN -GSP-ASH
 
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pcbjr said:
Other than Sherman's march to the sea, that's the damndest route for havoc I've ever seen (I didn't see Sherman, except in books, but ...) ...

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Yay! I get drizzle and some SE breeze off that track!?
 
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