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Pattern July

I would watch the activity in east TN could pose a flood threat where the ground is saturated (Boone, Wilkes, Surry).
 
JHS said:
I knew we would miss when it got cloudy this morning. What you see now over upstate SC is all that will be here all evening long. I'm not liking our chances for rain for the next week to 10 days in this area.
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Cloud cover didn’t do to much, until around the lower upstate where there’s still some MLCIN and lower MLcape, but SB cape is ranging from 2000-3000 jkg in the upstate, had cloud cover here for a good amount of time, still managed 3000 jkg of SBcape, large boundary layer moisture combined with high PWATs is allowing large cape even with Garbo lapse rates, column is a soaked sponge with deep warm cloud layers and large saturation
 
JHS said:
I knew we would miss when it got cloudy this morning. What you see now over upstate SC is all that will be here all evening long. I'm not liking our chances for rain for the next week to 10 days in this area.
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That's the way we do it around here. Out of 10 days of high rain chances we're guaranteed to whiff 8 of those days.
 
Id love for a TD to meander along the SE for a few days. In spite of widespread coverage of storms the other day, there are still many localities that didn't get the ratios/amounts that were needed for quality grass/landscaping. Reservoirs/Lakes are probably doing okay though.
 
Everybody keep @SD away from the 3k NAM! He doesn't need to see it.
 
And I don't care what you say, the new GFS is awesome to look at. I can't wait for the 40" snow maps this winter! And speaking of winter, I'm going +3 - +5F for most of the SE this year, with normal snow across the north and west to much below normal snow south and east. Plains and Midwest, into the Lakes and NE will be -3 - -1F and will jackpot snow, again. No reason at all to go anywhere remotely against persistence.

gfs_apcpn_us_64.png
 
Rain Cold said:
And I don't care what you say, the new GFS is awesome to look at. I can't wait for the 40" snow maps this winter! And speaking of winter, I'm going +3 - +5F for most of the SE this year, with normal snow across the north and west to much below normal snow south and east. Plains and Midwest, into the Lakes and NE will be -3 - -1F and will jackpot snow, again. No reason at all to go anywhere remotely against persistence.

View attachment 20851
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You might be low.

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Avalanche said:
Id love for a TD to meander along the SE for a few days. In spite of widespread coverage of storms the other day, there are still many localities that didn't get the ratios/amounts that were needed for quality grass/landscaping. Reservoirs/Lakes are probably doing okay though.
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You're right about that. A lot of areas recieved good rains and at my location we had light rain for maybe 30 minutes once. It's very dry.
 
More heavy storms today says widespread but I think Wilkes and north/west with less Statesville east.
 
Rain Cold said:
And I don't care what you say, the new GFS is awesome to look at. I can't wait for the 40" snow maps this winter! And speaking of winter, I'm going +3 - +5F for most of the SE this year, with normal snow across the north and west to much below normal snow south and east. Plains and Midwest, into the Lakes and NE will be -3 - -1F and will jackpot snow, again. No reason at all to go anywhere remotely against persistence.

View attachment 20851
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Yeah, nothing wrong with that map! We get our best rains from tropical systems that go into LA and move NNW??
 
SD said:
Trying to not get excited about rain chances I really like today
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Nvm this developed to my east and is moving away. Close scene on today, I hate this summer

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SD said:
Nvm this developed to my east and is moving away. Close scene on today, I hate this summer

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RGEM likes us. New NAM keeps the main active west and east.
 
lots of surface based cape (3000-4500), steep low level lapse rates (7-8C) DCAPE plume coming in from the SE, very large PWATs, little bit of a DP/T depression altho it’s not much will probably allow a few isolated wet microbursts today
 
Marginal Risk out for Severe, foothills and others if manages to rain that Far East
 
Rain only in Wilkes county today , sorry everybody else! Maybe the hurricane that goes through AR, brings the goods!?
 
BHS1975 said:
It’s still early.


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I'll go with 0. Less than 1 inch of rain in the last month why would that change today .

Sorry to be negative just stating to get desperate, if it doesn't rain today/ tomorrow the rest of the week looks dry.

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SD said:
I'll go with 0. Less than 1 inch of rain in the last month why would that change today .

Sorry to be negative just stating to get desperate, if it doesn't rain today/ tomorrow the rest of the week looks dry.

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Hrrr has something rolling through overnight.


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SD said:
I'll go with 0. Less than 1 inch of rain in the last month why would that change today .

Sorry to be negative just stating to get desperate, if it doesn't rain today/ tomorrow the rest of the week looks dry.

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Looks like you are about to cash in

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