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Pattern July

Fv3 has a tropical system forming off some remnant front or boundary off the SC coast in the 140-160 hr timeframe.

It has shown this for a couple of runs. 257D112E-1FF5-41CE-800E-9DB6F46547D9.png

While not very likely these home grown systems are pretty “common” in July I believe. Maybe a test of the fv3 if it hangs on to this idea? It’s certainly in the realm of possibility so it’s not totally crazy.
 
NAM be crazy
5d86f19c5943c719568e65c619268968.jpg


Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
NAM be crazy
5d86f19c5943c719568e65c619268968.jpg


Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Just like winter...one run shows massive totals and then backs off as you work in.
 
I'll still keep a eye on the gulf with the gfs hinting at something in the medium range
 
Still looks like there could be lots of storms around, getting close to superadiabatic lapse rates (8-10C) , some large Dcape, 10-25 kts of 0-8km bulk shear will likely add to some isolated damaging wind threat , altho this just looks like a good day for rain 82ED3A9C-AC35-4845-AD8C-493826051D87.png
 
Still looks like there could be lots of storms around, getting close to superadiabatic lapse rates (8-10C) , some large Dcape, 10-25 kts of 0-8km bulk shear will likely add to some isolated damaging wind threat , altho this just looks like a good day for rain View attachment 20764
?! CLT looks good, GSP area looks like a hot dumpster fire of drought!
 
?! CLT looks good, GSP area looks like a hot dumpster fire of drought!

Since your rain chances are lower, Go try using live shad at one of the areas you know, bass love them right now
 
Classic environmental sounding for popcorn thunderstorms. Strong BL moisture and instability coupled to piss-poor mid-level lapse rates and shear in addition to some respectable DCAPE w/ a nice inverted "V" at the bottom of the sounding suggests there will be a few wet microbursts around later this afternoon and evening.

Many will probably dry out in time for fireworks, some will probably not be so lucky.
download - 2019-07-04T051648.778.png
 
Classic environmental sounding for popcorn thunderstorms. Strong BL moisture and instability coupled to piss-poor mid-level lapse rates and shear in addition to some respectable DCAPE w/ a nice inverted "V" at the bottom of the sounding suggests there will be a few wet microbursts around later this afternoon and evening.

Many will probably dry out in time for fireworks, some will probably not be so lucky.
View attachment 20765

It’s a shelfie kind of day
 
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