cd2play
Member
The good news is the 2020-21 winter will probably have the trough in the east, blocking, _NAO, etc, only for all the cold air to be in Europe, leaving us with 40s and rain.The GEFS suggests the -NAO will go at least through 7/16, which would make it a whopping 81 days straight with no end yet in sight! As a result, we're on track for one of the most, if not THE most, -NAO for May-July averaged out. These years since 1950 also had a strong -NAO for May-July averaged out: 1958, 1993, 1998, 2008, 2012, and 2016.
How did May-Jul temperatures average for these 6 winters, combined? Warm in the SE
View attachment 20744
How were the subsequent winter temperatures in the SE?
1958: normal
1993: cold
1998: warm
2008: normal
2012: warm
2016: warm
So, fwiw, these 6 winters favor warmth over cold. This is encouraging for my forecast for still another mild SER dominated winter coming up.
How did DJF temperatures average for these 6 winters, combined? Warm in the SE
View attachment 20745
Conclusion: having this current very long-lived -NAO doesn't at all favor a cold winter upcoming and to the contrary favors warmth. So, don't be fooled. The SER is liable to stick around for another winter. But I'm hopeful for a change for 2020-21.