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Pattern July

It’s gonna be hot asab today, I’d take this tho (large BL mixing allowing lower DPs, similar to that May heat vs the nam showing 92-96 with dew points around 68-72
That’s a ugly environment for thunderstorms
Unimpressive theta E, huge mixed out BL, high LFC/LCLs, trash low level moisture
Questioning whether to go fishing today now with my grandpa that has copd, this heat ain’t good for it + ground level ozone 509D2708-B738-4D95-A356-79E96368AA1A.png9825F9A4-5B65-4666-9C79-C981505C15A6.jpeg
 
It looks dry to start today but later in the upper levels some moisture may try to work into western NC.
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Wednesday looks much better for storm chances with much more mid level moisture to work with.

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SD said:
I am actually getting a little excited about storms late this evening into the early overnight
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Thats one thing i enjoyed about being in Conway SC are those sea breeze fronts firing those high definition cumulonimbus thunderstorms.
 
To give an idea of last months flooding, Berry Mountain Park and swim beaches will be closed for the rest of the year. Lots of dead fish inland in the woods/hills. Smells. Wilkes County NC.
 
Folks, we’re living in historic times with the longest non-winter -NAO period on record back to 1950: 67 days and still showing no sign of ending soon! During May-July, a -NAO actually correlates partially to a warm SE with a SER pattern. The old non-winter record had been the 61 days of 7/12/1958-9/10/1958. In 3rd place now is 5/26/2012-7/21/2012 with 56 days followed by the 53 days of 8/7/1968-9/28/1968 and the 52 days of both 6/18/1957-8/8/1957 and 9/30/1968-11/20/1968. Wx history is so much fun to study.
 
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GaWx said:
Folks, we’re living in historic times with the longest non-winter -NAO period on record back to 1950: 67 days and still showing no sign of ending soon! During May-July, a -NAO partially actually correlates to a warm SE with a SER pattern. The old non-winter record had been the 61 days of 7/12/1958-9/10/1958. In 3rd place now is 5/26/2012-7/21/2012 with 56 days followed by the 53 days of 8/7/1968-9/28/1968 and the 52 days of both 6/18/1957-8/8/1957 and 9/30/1968-11/20/1968. Wx history is so much fun to study.
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-NAO? What's that? lol.
 
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Listen closely along the I-95 corridor today, if this verifies.... temps in the mid to upper 90's and DP's mixing out to low to mid 50's you'll hear the earth slurping the last bit of moisture in the ground

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GaWx said:
Folks, we’re living in historic times with the longest non-winter -NAO period on record back to 1950: 67 days and still showing no sign of ending soon! During May-July, a -NAO partially actually correlates to a warm SE with a SER pattern. The old non-winter record had been the 61 days of 7/12/1958-9/10/1958. In 3rd place now is 5/26/2012-7/21/2012 with 56 days followed by the 53 days of 8/7/1968-9/28/1968 and the 52 days of both 6/18/1957-8/8/1957 and 9/30/1968-11/20/1968. Wx history is so much fun to study.
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Does this mean it's half way around it's cycle and should be back for Winter in 69 years? Light at the end of the tunnel
 
Tired of all these air quality alerts. Think they could simplify it into a monthly alert instead of daily?
 
GaWx said:
Folks, we’re living in historic times with the longest non-winter -NAO period on record back to 1950: 67 days and still showing no sign of ending soon! During May-July, a -NAO actually correlates partially to a warm SE with a SER pattern. The old non-winter record had been the 61 days of 7/12/1958-9/10/1958. In 3rd place now is 5/26/2012-7/21/2012 with 56 days followed by the 53 days of 8/7/1968-9/28/1968 and the 52 days of both 6/18/1957-8/8/1957 and 9/30/1968-11/20/1968. Wx history is so much fun to study.
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Here’s a great chart showing it. You know come winter it’ll reverse and be solidly positive.

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GaWx said:
Folks, we’re living in historic times with the longest non-winter -NAO period on record back to 1950: 67 days and still showing no sign of ending soon! During May-July, a -NAO actually correlates partially to a warm SE with a SER pattern. The old non-winter record had been the 61 days of 7/12/1958-9/10/1958. In 3rd place now is 5/26/2012-7/21/2012 with 56 days followed by the 53 days of 8/7/1968-9/28/1968 and the 52 days of both 6/18/1957-8/8/1957 and 9/30/1968-11/20/1968. Wx history is so much fun to study.
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It's fun to observe changes like these over the course of the seasonal cycle and is a testament to how different forcing agents play different relative roles at particular times of the year. During the summer, things like thermal damping via SSTs, surface heat fluxes related to albedo and/or latent heat exchanges with the ocean, frozen, or melting land & sea ice, in addition to (at least in the earlier parts of the summer anyway) circulation changes attributable to the "final warming" of the polar vortex as winter comes to a close play a significantly larger role proportionally in the summer. On the other hand rossby waves in the mid-latitude storm track and external sources of variability that affect the amplitude and trajectory of these waves (including but not limited to ENSO & QBO) which usually tends to dominate over the other aforementioned sources of NAO variability in the winter, takes more of a backseat, hands-off, or laissez-faire role this time of the year if you will, but are still important considerations nonetheless. That's my 2 cents anyway
 
Decent cluster of storms have fired over southern West Virginia and are moving south, even forcing the SPC to issue a MCD.

Here's to hoping they organize into a QLCS and make it to my neck of the woods later this evening.

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gotta make it though Wilkes first before ur neck of the woods little one
 
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SPC climo for July 2nd is a bullseye for Blowing Rock, Wilkesboro, Hickory, Charlotte for damaging severe winds compared to the rest of the country.
 
Not even a marginal risk out for Boone NC seems like they are gonna miss the boat on this one awful quick
 
100.9 F on my therm. at 2:30 PM. UN-BE-LIEVABLE! No seabreeze and just a few cumulus clouds.

Edit: make that 102.2 at 2:40 PM!! Hotter than anything I saw in May. Crazy!

Heat indices at 2 PM: 110 at Augusta and 108 at KSAV!

Irrigation resumes tonight.
 
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